Performance of French far right, who ‘see Europe as the problem’, fears German foreign minister – as it happened

• Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and its allies won 33% of the vote in Sunday’s first round of France’s snap legislative elections, fuelling fears at home and abroad about the rise of the far right.

• The leftwing New Popular Front alliance (NFP) got 28%, while president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc came third with 22% of the vote.

• Most of the 577 seats in the national assembly will now be decided in a second-round runoff on Sunday.

• Rival parties were engaged in frantic bargaining and tactical voting plans on Monday in an attempt to stop the far right’s rise.

• Le Monde published an editorial warning that “the far right is on the doorstep of power.” The paper said that “only the formation of a powerful republican front can stand in the way of a party which, despite all its concealments, remains highly dangerous.”

• The RN president, Jordan Bardella, published a letter to the French people in which he sets out the party’s strategy for mobilising voters in the second round: focusing on spending power and making ends meet, while warning against the left — who it will face in numerous run-offs.

• Bruno Le Maire, the economy minister and Macron ally, said this morning that “for me, France Unbowed is a danger for the nation, just as the National Rally is a danger for the Republic.”

• France’s Unbowed’s Eric Coquerel, meanwhile, argued that “all those who continue in the former majority to put a line of equality between LFI [France Unbowed] and the RN [National Rally] affirm that for them, it is not a problem to give the majority to the RN.”

• Clément Beaune, a Macron ally, has pointed to the upcoming British election in his plea for France not to turn to the far right. “At a time when our British friends are about to turn the page from demagogic nationalism, let’s not dive into it. Coming out of it is long and painful,” he said.

• Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, has issued a warning about the far right. “They love Putin, money and power without control. And they are already in power or are reaching for it in the East or West of Europe,” he said.

• Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, described Sunday’s French election results as a warning

• The German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said “it cannot leave anyone unmoved if, in our own country, for example in the European elections, or in our closest partner and best friend, a party that sees Europe as the problem and not the solution is far ahead.”

Le Monde has published an editorial warning that “the far right is on the doorstep of power.”

The situation is made all the more dangerous by the fact that there are barely six days left to avoid the worst – preventing the RN from gaining an absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale.

Only the formation of a powerful republican front can stand in the way of a party which, despite all its concealments, remains highly dangerous because its policies are based on “national preference,” a concept that amounts to classifying people according to where they come from.

The editorial also criticised Emmanuel Macron’s camp and the centre right not allied with the National Rally for unclear messaging.

In view of the gravity of the situation, this kind of complacency is unforgivable: It contributes to trivializing the vote in favor of the far right, at a time when there is very little time left to attempt to build the ultimate wake-up, by calling on all the values of the French Republic.

On Sunday, July 7, what is at stake is not just a transfer of power – it may be a tipping point.

The far right National Rally’s Jordan Bardella has posted a photo portraying Emmanuel Macron as an ally of the left.

The mayor of Nice, Christian Estrosi, has condemned an attack on the security guard of a Jewish school.

In Corrèze, former president François Hollande was in the lead yesterday but will be going into a three-way runoff next Sunday.

The highest turnout rate yesterday was among French voters over the age of 65, according to an IFOP study.

View image in fullscreen

Here’s the latest from IFOP on yesterday’s high turnout of 66.7%, compared to 47.5% in 2022.

Here are some thoughts from Ngaire Woods, professor of global economic governance and dean at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government.

The striking shift to the far-right amongst young people, enabling parties like National Rally in France to make significant gains, has led global politicians to strengthen their stance on issues like immigration.

But this does not account for one of the most powerful driving forces behind this new youth politics of disaffection – a sense of betrayal by establishment politicians. While older generations consume a swelling share of government budgets through pensions and social care, young people across Europe face shrinking economic prospects and insecure employment.

While some progress has been made in reducing youth unemployment - in France it has decreased from 25% in 2016 to 15.7% in 2023 - there is far more to be done to win back young voters.

Politicians must now consider both their message and their medium, harnessing social media as a tool for broader engagement rather than simply announcement, fostering dialogue rather than treating it as a focus group. As we see in Bardella’s rise to power through TikTok, powerful movements can be mobilised when young people feel heard. Politicians must give them reasons for hope on the horizon and engage in the digital channels where they find information and expression.

The far right Hungarian government is celebrating the Macron camp’s poor performance in Sunday’s vote.

“Biden, Macron… change is coming,” wrote Balázs Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister’s political director in a social media post.

The German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has expressed concern over the far right National Rally’s gains in France, Reuters reported.

“It cannot leave anyone unmoved if, in our own country, for example in the European elections, or in our closest partner and best friend, a party that sees Europe as the problem and not the solution is far ahead,” she said.

Sylvie Casenave-Péré, a candidate from Macron’s camp, has withdrawn from a three-way race where Marine Le Pen’s sister, Marie-Caroline Le Pen, was in the lead in the first round.

The other candidate, Élise Leboucher, represents France Unbowed.

France Unbowed’s Clémentine Autain said that the “neither nor” approach of some centrists who are opposed to voting both for the National Rally (RN) and France Unbowed (LFI) “has only one winner: the far right.”

Christelle Morançais, regional council president for the Pays de la Loire, has said that in case of a faceoff between the National Rally and the New Popular Front “my personal position is clear: blank vote.”

Clément Beaune, a Macron ally, has pointed to the upcoming British election in his plea for France not to turn to the far right.

“At a time when our British friends are about to turn the page from demagogic nationalism, let’s not dive into it. Coming out of it is long and painful,” he said.

Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, has issued a warning about the far right.

“They love Putin, money and power without control. And they are already in power or are reaching for it in the East or West of Europe,” he wrote on social media.

“They are joining ranks in the European Parliament. In Poland, we reversed this fatal tide at the very last moment. Let’s not waste it,” he added.

A big debate following the first round is the role of the controversial France Unbowed (LFI) party, which forms part of the left wing New Popular Front alliance.

Bruno Le Maire, the economy minister and Macron ally, said this morning that “for me, France Unbowed is a danger for the nation, just as the National Rally is a danger for the Republic.”

France’s Unbowed’s Eric Coquerel argued that “all those who continue in the former majority to put a line of equality between LFI [France Unbowed] and the RN [National Rally] affirm that for them, it is not a problem to give the majority to the RN.”

“Am I to understand that you don’t dare debate with me?” wrote Marine Tondelier, national secretary of Europe Ecology – The Greens, in response to the far right National Rally’s Jordan Bardella.

Bardella said he is ready to debate with France Unbowed’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon, but Tondelier said it was her turn to represent the New Popular Front.

Le Monde’s front page today speaks volumes. Brown shows where the National Rally came first in the first round (many constituencies will now go to a second-round run-off).

2d ago05.16 EDT

Paul Taylor

Paul Taylor, a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre, has just written this sobering opinion piece for the Guardian. In it, he looks at the national and international consequences of Macron’s gamble.

President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble of dissolving parliament and seeking a “clarification” from voters after an ultra-short three-week campaign backfired spectacularly on his own supporters …

The Macron era is over, even if the president stays in the Élysée palace until his term ends in 2027. The electorate overwhelmingly rejected him for the second time in a month. His hold on both domestic and European policy will be seriously diminished, whatever the outcome of next week’s run-offs.

France, a founder member and driving force in the European Union, a G7 economy, nuclear power and permanent member of the UN security council, is set to become a more awkward, inwardly focused partner in EU and Nato negotiations, a less enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine and a brake on further European integration.

Whether the RN wins an absolute majority in next Sunday’s second round and Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege, becomes prime minister, or whether it falls short and France endures a period of instability with a hung parliament, it is only a matter of time now before the Eurosceptic France-first nationalists gets its day in government.