Semafor’s subjective, dynamic ranking of the elections you should be paying attention to right now — based on their urgency, their importance, and their connection to the great political forces shaping our world.
The far-right taking over France’s Parliament could be one of the most consequential political developments in the European Union, ever. Recent polls have Marine Le Pen’s National Rally well above 30% of the vote, with the potential to secure close to a majority in the Assembly. While the French Parliament is much less powerful than the presidency, a win would still send continental shockwaves, and possibly provide a springboard for a National Rally presidential campaign in 2027 — with a slate of incumbent legislators already in place to support their candidate.
France last appeared on the Hot List at #1, with political chaos following Macron's snap election call.
Sikh separatist leader Amritpal Singh is now a member of India’s lower house of Parliament, after being elected from prison. Singh, who is accused of being a “national security threat” by the Indian state, leads the Waris Punjab De organization and has “advocated for a separate Sikh homeland,” per Al Jazeera. One expert cautioned against registering the result as a win for separatism in Punjab, though, explaining that Singh’s anti-drug campaign may have won more voters to his side.
One under-discussed outcome of the UK’s general election could be the decline of Scottish separatists. With the rise of Labour and a recent history of internal turmoil, the Scottish National Party could see itself drastically reduced compared to highs seen in the past decade. Labour now polls ahead of the SNP in Scotland according to some nationwide polls, a result which could eventually be replicated in a Scottish election, as some surveys already point towards.
The Patriotic Alliance, a hardline South African right-wing party that has railed against migration, will join the country’s new “government of national unity.” After winning a not-insignificant number of seats in the recent general election, the Patriotic Alliance is part of the roster of partners joining the African National Congress to forge a new government after the ruling party lost its majority. Despite not forming a part of the Multi-Party Charter that included the Democratic Alliance and other smaller parties, the Patriotic Alliance sees itself in the new administration at the helm of the Home Affairs ministry, seeking to implement its agenda of “closing South African borders.”
Hungary will take over the EU’s revolving presidency, and the country’s right-wing government is adopting “Make Europe Great Again” as its slogan. It’s clear that Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban intends to make full use of its platform at the fore of the bloc’s Council with the phrase, which “raised a few eyebrows” among EU officials. Orban and Donald Trump are close allies: Hungary’s 6-month term will coincide with the US presidential election campaign, where Trump will seek a return to office after four years out of power.
Venezuela’s opposition declined to sign a pledge to respect the results of the country’s upcoming election. The move comes after President Nicolas Maduro barred a series of opposition candidates from running, resulting in the nomination of former ambassador Edmundo Gonzalez, who has led Maduro in public polls by landslide margins. Gonzalez did not approve the aforementioned pledge, citing the Maduro government’s rejection of international observers, along with “increased persecution” of opposition figures.
The governor of Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, is at the center of an internal conflict developing within the president’s party. Governor Johnson Sakaja, from the nationally incumbent UDA, is looking to take over the party’s chairmanship in Nairobi County. The contest has developed into a struggle between factions, with opponents of Sakaja launching “vicious attacks” on his credibility, accusing him of “high-level corruption.” Sakaja’s enemies may even include Rigathi Gachagua, Kenya’s deputy president.
A Green party surged to claim first place in Danish elections to the European Parliament. It was the first time the Green Left party had ever placed first in a national election, relegating the governing Social Democrats to second place. The Green Left has seen an uplift in general election polling recently, too, and may now have a chance to take a lead, using their European performance as a springboard. Left-wing parties across the Nordic countries saw encouraging results, with significant performances in Sweden and Finland as well.
Madagascar’s election saw the ruling party lose its majority, against the backdrop of a crackdown on political opposition. Last year’s presidential election saw a broad opposition boycott and mass protests, often broken up with tear gas. The president had apparently anticipated a “tidal wave” in the results according to Le Monde, but came up well short of that goal, as he’ll need to work with other legislators to secure control of Parliament. As with the presidential election, allegations of fraud have been made regarding the conduct of the vote.
Progressive victory in Mexico’s election is giving its elite class conniptions, per the Financial Times. According to a new article, “one executive stayed in bed all afternoon eating ice cream to try to cope” with a loss for the center-right opposition. Support for losing candidate Xochitl Galvez was higher among wealthier Mexicans, some of whom are “struggling” to grasp the popularity of a political party they perceive as “scaring off investors.” But as the article points out, “decades of high poverty, glaring inequality and low wages” add up to an easy explanation for Morena’s success in recent years.
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