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Maine Republican Primary Election Results

Winner Winner

Donald J. Trump wins the Maine Republican primary.

Race called by The Associated Press.

Latest results from May 16
>95% of votes in

Republican Primary race called

Republican Primary
Candidate Votes Percent Chart showing percent Delegates
Donald J. TrumpD. TrumpTrump Winner
78,493 72.9% 20
Nikki HaleyN. HaleyHaley
27,300 25.3 No delegates
Ron DeSantisR. DeSantisDeSantis
1,168 1.1 No delegates
Total reported
107,712

100% of delegates allocated (20 of 20)

PortlandBangorPortlandBangor

Where votes have been reported and where votes remain

These maps show the leading candidates’ margins in the vote reported so far, and estimates for which candidate leads in the remaining votes that we expect from each place.

Votes reported

Estimated votes remaining

We stopped updating our estimates. This map is now archived.

Votes reported and estimated votes remaining
Town Trump Haley DeSantis Total votes Percent of votes in Estimated remaining votes
Aroostook County Townships 90% 10% 0% 10 15% <60
Winterport 73 17 7 262 63% 150
York 72 25 2 354 64% 200
Blue Hill 70 29 1 159 71% <100
Danforth 87 11 2 61 73% <20
Strong 71 27 1 142 76% <100
Saint Albans 84 14 1 223 80% <100
Farmingdale 75 23 1 244 81% <100
Woodland 84 16 0 105 81% <100
Madison 84 15 1 337 84% <100
Windsor 80 18 <1 251 85% <100
East Millinocket 84 12 3 138 85% <100
Saint Agatha 94 6 0 62 85% <10
Belfast 66 31 1 366 86% <100
Turner 79 20 1 561 88% <100
Charleston 88 10 1 160 88% <100
Perry 76 22 2 93 90% <100
Gorham 63 35 1 1,360 91% 150
Mount Vernon 73 26 1 168 91% <100
Greenbush 83 17 0 125 91% <100
Baldwin 83 17 0 193 92% <100
Surry 69 30 1 177 92% <100
Cornish 76 22 1 140 92% <100
Guilford 83 17 1 133 92% <100
Saco 66 32 2 1,177 93% <100
Unity 77 21 1 150 93% <100
Stetson 88 11 1 139 94% <100
Portland 54 45 1 1,745 >95% <100
Scarborough 56 42 1 1,642 >95% <100
Windham 75 24 1 1,464 >95% <100
Cumberland 43 53 2 1,459 >95% <100
Brunswick 57 40 2 1,452 >95% <100
Lewiston 79 19 1 1,335 >95% <100
Sanford 77 21 1 1,306 >95% <100
Bangor 71 28 1 1,249 >95% <100
Wells 65 34 1 1,238 >95% <100
Auburn 74 24 1 1,215 >95% <100
Kennebunk 55 43 1 1,199 >95% <100
Augusta 71 28 1 1,110 >95% <100
Falmouth 50 49 1 1,061 >95% <100
South Portland 59 39 1 1,054 >95% <100
Standish 74 25 1 929 >95% <100
Biddeford 73 26 <1 829 >95% <100
Westbrook 67 30 2 817 >95% <100
Lisbon 78 19 1 802 >95% <100
Berwick 79 19 1 790 >95% <100
Topsham 65 33 2 790 >95% <100
Buxton 75 24 1 773 >95% <100
Gray 72 27 1 729 >95% <100
Kittery 63 34 2 723 >95% <100
Harpswell 62 35 2 698 >95% <100
Eliot 71 28 1 691 >95% <100
Waterboro 76 22 2 690 >95% <100
Old Orchard Beach Town 67 31 1 672 >95% <100
Lebanon 85 13 1 669 >95% <100
Hampden 72 27 1 648 >95% <100
Brewer 75 24 1 645 >95% <100
Ellsworth 74 25 1 636 >95% <100
Cape Elizabeth 46 52 1 635 >95% <100
Freeport 57 42 1 635 >95% <100
Hermon 79 19 1 633 >95% <100
Yarmouth 45 53 2 615 >95% <100
Winslow 75 22 1 610 >95% <100
North Berwick 80 19 1 566 >95% <100
Bridgton 72 27 1 559 >95% <100
Raymond 71 27 1 558 >95% <100
Oakland 78 20 1 550 >95% <100
New Gloucester 71 27 2 548 >95% <100
Winthrop 67 31 1 544 >95% <100
Waldoboro 80 19 1 532 >95% <100
Skowhegan 79 19 2 529 >95% <100
South Berwick 71 27 1 518 >95% <100
Poland 72 26 1 515 >95% <100
Waterville 71 25 4 514 >95% <100
Sidney 78 20 2 508 >95% <100
Bath 61 34 3 479 >95% <100
Farmington 65 33 1 477 >95% <100
Hollis 74 23 2 477 >95% <100
Caribou 76 22 2 473 >95% <100
North Yarmouth 59 39 1 460 >95% <100
China 78 20 1 457 >95% <100
Limington 83 16 <1 456 >95% <100
Paris 74 24 1 456 >95% <100
Dover-Foxcroft 81 17 1 448 >95% <100
Durham 67 32 <1 444 >95% <100
Lincoln 82 15 2 442 >95% <100
Sabattus 86 13 <1 439 >95% <100
Oxford 83 15 1 436 >95% <100
Presque Isle 77 21 2 429 >95% <100
Greene 84 15 <1 423 >95% <100
West Gardiner 74 23 1 423 >95% <100
Litchfield 78 20 1 421 >95% <100
Arundel 76 22 2 411 >95% <100
Fairfield 82 16 1 410 >95% <100
Wiscasset 75 23 1 410 >95% <100
Bowdoin 74 22 2 389 >95% <100
Glenburn 76 22 1 386 >95% <100
Houlton 86 11 1 386 >95% <100
Shapleigh 82 17 1 386 >95% <100
Orrington 82 17 1 378 >95% <100
Norway 71 28 1 376 >95% <100
Rockland 70 29 1 376 >95% <100
Warren 82 16 1 376 >95% <100
Monmouth 75 24 1 374 >95% <100
Bucksport 76 22 1 373 >95% <100
Woolwich 71 27 1 371 >95% <100
Vassalboro 78 22 0 366 >95% <100
Acton 74 26 <1 358 >95% <100
Alfred 72 25 2 354 >95% <100
Gardiner 76 22 1 354 >95% <100
Holden 74 25 1 347 >95% <100
Boothbay 58 40 1 344 >95% <100
Limerick 79 19 <1 338 >95% <100
Norridgewock 78 20 2 333 >95% <100
Millinocket 77 22 1 330 >95% <100
Bristol 63 36 1 329 >95% <100
Camden 55 43 1 329 >95% <100
Casco 78 21 2 329 >95% <100
Old Town 73 24 2 328 >95% <100
Belgrade 70 28 1 327 >95% <100
Newport 82 17 1 320 >95% <100
Union 75 23 2 320 >95% <100
Pittston 79 20 1 318 >95% <100
Rumford 78 21 1 317 >95% <100
Fryeburg 66 33 <1 315 >95% <100
Richmond 77 19 3 314 >95% <100
Carmel 86 14 0 311 >95% <100
Dexter 80 19 1 305 >95% <100
Jay 77 22 1 305 >95% <100
Manchester 72 26 1 302 >95% <100
Levant 90 9 1 301 >95% <100
Wilton 74 24 1 289 >95% <100
Jefferson 76 23 1 288 >95% <100
Kennebunkport 100 0 0 286 >95% <100
Bowdoinham 67 30 3 280 >95% <100
Harrison 70 30 1 280 >95% <100
Corinth 88 11 1 276 >95% <100
Dayton 77 22 1 276 >95% <100
Mechanic Falls 81 18 <1 274 >95% <100
Pittsfield 77 20 1 274 >95% <100
Rockport 58 41 1 273 >95% <100
Readfield 69 29 1 271 >95% <100
Benton 82 17 <1 266 >95% <100
Searsport 68 29 2 264 >95% <100
Livermore 82 15 1 262 >95% <100
Clinton 87 12 0 261 >95% <100
Kingfield 64 34 2 261 >95% <100
Steuben 88 11 1 255 >95% <100
Chelsea 81 18 1 253 >95% <100
Eddington 82 17 <1 252 >95% <100
Newfield 81 16 1 252 >95% <100
Boothbay Harbor 54 43 1 249 >95% <100
Orono 52 43 1 248 >95% <100
Hancock 79 20 1 242 >95% <100
Orland 74 24 2 242 >95% <100
Palermo 76 24 0 240 >95% <100
Leeds 83 16 <1 239 >95% <100
Fort Kent 87 11 1 235 >95% <100
Greenville 74 25 1 235 >95% <100
West Bath 67 32 1 233 >95% <100
Saint George 66 32 2 232 >95% <100
Bar Harbor 57 42 <1 231 >95% <100
Albion 83 15 2 230 >95% <100
Minot 78 19 1 229 >95% <100
Whitefield 77 22 0 227 >95% <100
Livermore Falls 88 11 <1 226 >95% <100
Milford 83 15 2 225 >95% <100
Lamoine 77 22 <1 223 >95% <100
Nobleboro 73 27 <1 220 >95% <100
Milo 82 16 1 218 >95% <100
Stockton Springs 71 27 1 217 >95% <100
Canaan 83 15 1 216 >95% <100
Otisfield 75 24 0 213 >95% <100
Pownal 66 33 1 211 >95% <100
Sebago 76 22 1 209 >95% <100
Palmyra 85 13 1 208 >95% <100
Anson 86 13 1 204 >95% <100
Dedham 64 35 0 202 >95% <100
Hodgdon 89 9 1 201 >95% <100
Owls Head 69 28 2 199 >95% <100
Calais 78 20 1 198 >95% <100
Thomaston 72 25 1 197 >95% <100
Corinna 81 16 3 196 >95% <100
Cushing 74 26 1 196 >95% <100
Friendship 77 21 3 196 >95% <100
Northport 70 29 1 194 >95% <100
Buckfield 80 19 1 193 >95% <100
Fort Fairfield 85 15 1 191 >95% <100
Brownfield 78 21 1 190 >95% <100
New Sharon 71 27 2 190 >95% <100
Deer Isle 68 29 2 187 >95% <100
Newcastle 63 35 1 182 >95% <100
Rangeley 69 28 2 182 >95% <100
Lincolnville 66 34 0 180 >95% <100
Cherryfield 84 11 5 176 >95% <100
Damariscotta 58 37 3 175 >95% <100
Hartland 87 12 1 174 >95% <100
Newburgh 79 19 2 172 >95% <100
Wales 85 13 0 172 >95% <100
Hallowell 57 40 1 171 >95% <100
Madawaska 85 13 1 165 >95% <100
Lovell 70 28 0 164 >95% <100
Mapleton 84 15 1 164 >95% <100
Washington 76 23 2 164 >95% <100
East Machias 84 15 1 162 >95% <100
Hope 66 33 1 162 >95% <100
Parsonsfield 77 22 1 161 >95% <100
Sangerville 85 14 1 161 >95% <100
Waterford 81 19 0 161 >95% <100
Fayette 76 22 1 160 >95% <100
Franklin 77 21 2 158 >95% <100
Southwest Harbor 61 36 2 157 >95% <100
Brownville 87 12 1 156 >95% <100
Addison 92 7 0 153 >95% <100
Mars Hill 79 20 1 153 >95% <100
Milbridge 75 22 2 151 >95% <100
Plymouth 80 17 2 150 >95% <100
Penobscot 68 29 2 149 >95% <100
Trenton 64 33 2 147 >95% <100
Peru 84 16 0 146 >95% <100
Medway 85 12 1 145 >95% <100
Cornville 81 19 0 144 >95% <100
Embden 76 22 0 143 >95% <100
Hudson 85 14 1 143 >95% <100
Phillips 82 17 1 143 >95% <100
West Paris 78 20 1 143 >95% <100
Enfield 84 15 1 142 >95% <100
Veazie 67 33 0 141 >95% <100
Morrill 75 23 2 140 >95% <100
Searsmont 70 29 1 139 >95% <100
Lee 88 11 1 138 >95% <100
Patten 86 13 1 138 >95% <100
Garland 85 14 1 137 >95% <100
Georgetown 59 40 1 137 >95% <100
Mexico 87 12 1 137 >95% <100
Porter 80 19 1 137 >95% <100
Chesterville 73 26 0 135 >95% <100
Woodstock 77 23 0 135 >95% <100
Appleton 84 15 1 134 >95% <100
Randolph 80 19 1 134 >95% <100
Hiram 80 18 2 132 >95% <100
Dixmont 85 15 0 130 >95% <100
Ogunquit 65 33 1 130 >95% <100
Swanville 85 13 2 130 >95% <100
Tremont 72 25 3 130 >95% <100
Brooks 71 26 1 129 >95% <100
Machias 81 18 1 128 >95% <100
Rome 72 25 2 128 >95% <100
Lubec 79 19 0 126 >95% <100
Hartford 79 20 1 124 >95% <100
Sherman 90 8 1 124 >95% <100
Kenduskeag 78 19 1 123 >95% <100
Wayne 67 30 2 123 >95% <100
Etna 89 8 2 121 >95% <100
Harrington 91 8 1 120 >95% <100
Jonesport 91 9 0 119 >95% <100
Andover 69 29 1 118 >95% <100
Clifton 76 22 2 118 >95% <100
Mount Desert 44 56 0 117 >95% <100
Hebron 74 20 3 116 >95% <100
Mercer 77 22 1 116 >95% <100
Bradley 82 16 1 113 >95% <100
Smithfield 70 28 1 112 >95% <100
Westport Island 59 39 0 112 >95% <100
Princeton 88 11 1 111 >95% <100
Solon 88 12 0 111 >95% <100
Eastport 82 18 0 110 >95% <100
Eustis 78 20 0 110 >95% <100
Jackman 79 21 0 110 >95% <100
Linneus 95 4 1 109 >95% <100
Monson 82 14 5 109 >95% <100
Sullivan 82 18 0 109 >95% <100
Edgecomb 56 41 1 108 >95% <100
Weld 68 30 1 107 >95% <100
Bingham 80 18 2 105 >95% <100
Exeter 80 19 0 103 >95% <100
Littleton 89 11 0 103 >95%
Sumner 82 18 0 103 >95% <100
South Bristol 50 47 2 102 >95% <100
Burnham 92 6 2 101 >95% <100
Abbot 88 11 1 100 >95% <100
Southport 46 52 1 100 >95% <100
Belmont 85 12 2 99 >95% <100
Canton 82 15 1 99 >95% <100
Columbia Falls 89 10 1 99 >95% <100
Frankfort 82 16 0 99 >95% <100
Knox 87 10 1 97 >95%
Greenwood 79 21 0 96 >95%
Stacyville 95 5 0 96 >95%
Vinalhaven 68 29 0 96 >95%
Sebec 81 19 0 95 >95%
Sedgwick 72 27 0 95 >95%
Blaine 89 7 2 94 >95%
Brooksville 56 41 2 94 >95%
Washburn 84 15 1 94 >95%
Frenchville 91 9 0 92 >95%
Stonington 62 34 3 91 >95%
Baileyville 86 11 1 90 >95%
Van Buren 87 10 2 90 >95%
New Vineyard 83 15 2 89 >95%
Troy 83 16 1 89 >95%
Otis 77 23 0 88 >95%
Parkman 90 9 0 88 >95%
Waldo 78 20 1 88 >95%
Monticello 91 8 1 87 >95%
Montville 76 24 0 87 >95%
Athens 74 21 2 85 >95%
Carrabassett Valley 39 61 0 85 >95%
Chester 84 15 1 85 >95%
Freedom 85 15 0 84 >95%
Prospect 81 18 1 83 >95%
Easton 79 17 1 82 >95%
Howland 88 11 1 82 >95%
Castine 49 51 0 81 >95%
New Limerick 75 25 0 81 >95%
Alton 88 13 0 80 >95%
Cutler 83 16 0 80 >95%
Monroe 83 14 3 76 >95%
New Portland 75 25 0 76 >95%
Liberty 76 17 5 75 >95%
Swans Island 84 16 0 75 >95%
Industry 73 23 4 74 >95%
Verona Island 75 22 3 73 >95%
Robbinston 92 8 0 71 >95%
Mariaville 90 7 3 70 >95%
Eagle Lake 87 13 0 68 >95%
Thorndike 85 15 0 68 >95%
Marshfield 82 18 0 67 >95%
Alexander 91 6 2 66 >95%
Jonesboro 80 20 0 66 >95%
Somerville 83 12 3 66 >95%
Bremen 60 40 0 65 >95%
Lowell 86 14 0 65 >95%
Mattawamkeag 91 6 3 65 >95%
Winter Harbor 80 20 0 65 >95%
Carthage 93 7 0 61 >95%
Starks 93 5 0 61 >95%
Waltham 80 20 0 61 >95%
Brooklin 63 34 2 59 >95%
Islesboro 58 37 5 59 >95%
Ripley 93 7 0 59 >95%
Westfield 76 24 0 59 >95%
Burlington 95 5 0 58 >95%
Cambridge 91 7 2 58 >95%
Albany Township 56 44 0 57 >95%
Bridgewater 88 13 0 56 >95%
Columbia 93 7 0 56 >95%
New Sweden 84 16 0 55 >95%
Jackson 78 20 0 54 >95%
Moscow 92 8 0 53 >95%
Winn 85 13 0 53 >95%
Dallas Plantation 57 41 0 51 >95%
Eastbrook 75 25 0 51 >95%
Vienna 69 29 0 51 >95%
LaGrange 92 6 0 50 >95%
Passadumkeag 76 22 0 50 >95%
Weston 90 10 0 50 >95%
Lyman 79 19 <1 507 100%
Naples 80 19 1 468 100%
Limestone 64 22 5 298 100%
Bethel 67 32 1 266 100%
Phippsburg 68 30 1 263 100%
Gouldsboro 76 23 <1 259 100%
Dixfield 80 18 1 219 100%
Dresden 79 20 1 202 100%
Denmark 70 30 0 164 100%
Bradford 84 14 1 160 100%
South Thomaston 69 31 0 145 100%
Ashland 91 9 0 106 100%
Pembroke 93 7 0 106 100%
Harmony 88 12 0 102 100%
Machiasport 81 16 2 101 100%
Island Falls 80 20 0 88 100%
Alna 71 29 0 84 100%
Oakfield 87 13 0 83 100%
Whiting 80 18 1 76 100%
Beals 91 9 0 55 100%
Portage Lake 78 19 2 64 No data
Sorrento 79 21 0 57 No data
Avon 86 12 2 49 No data
Arrowsic 51 45 2 47 No data
Charlotte 70 30 0 47 No data
Detroit 77 21 2 47 No data
Rangeley Plantation 80 20 0 46 No data
Temple 80 18 2 44 No data
Amherst 90 7 2 42 No data
Penobscot County Townships 98 2 0 42 No data
Perham 76 24 0 42 No data
Stoneham 74 26 0 42 No data
Newry 51 44 2 41 No data
Stow 73 28 0 40 No data
Castle Hill 87 13 0 39 No data
Roque Bluffs 77 23 0 39 No data
Dyer Brook 84 13 3 38 No data
Ludlow 76 24 0 38 No data
Mount Chase 76 24 0 38 No data
Shirley 84 16 0 38 No data
Sweden 58 39 3 38 No data
Medford 89 11 0 37 No data
New Canada 78 22 0 37 No data
Dennysville 89 11 0 35 No data
Moose River 86 11 3 35 No data
Reed Plantation 91 9 0 35 No data
Topsfield 74 23 3 35 No data
Wallagrass 86 14 0 35 No data
Woodville 89 6 6 35 No data
Atkinson Township 91 9 0 34 No data
Chebeague Island 44 53 0 34 No data
Merrill 100 0 0 34 No data
Roxbury 74 24 0 34 No data
Stockholm 76 9 12 33 No data
Allagash 91 9 0 32 No data
Amity 94 0 0 32 No data
Crystal 69 31 0 32 No data
Washington County Townships 78 19 3 32 No data
Winterville Plantation 75 25 0 32 No data
Gilead 74 23 0 31 No data
Lake View Plantation 71 29 0 31 No data
Sandy River Plantation 37 63 0 30 No data
Bowerbank 83 17 0 29 No data
Chapman 86 14 0 29 No data
Saint Francis 83 14 0 29 No data
Smyrna 100 0 0 29 No data
Baring Plantation 79 21 0 28 No data
Beaver Cove 56 44 0 27 No data
Masardis 78 22 0 27 No data
Meddybemps 89 11 0 27 No data
Willimantic 89 11 0 27 No data
Grand Lake Stream Plantation 96 4 0 26 No data
Lakeville 88 8 4 26 No data
Saint John Plantation 85 12 0 26 No data
Wesley 88 8 4 26 No data
Carroll Plantation 100 0 0 25 No data
Hanover 84 16 0 25 No data
Caswell 88 13 0 24 No data
Cooper 75 17 8 24 No data
Long Island 33 63 4 24 No data
Wade 83 17 0 24 No data
Coplin Plantation 57 43 0 23 No data
Grand Isle 87 9 4 23 No data
Hamlin 70 22 9 23 No data
Madawaska Lake Township 52 48 0 23 No data
Upton 74 26 0 23 No data
Crawford 86 14 0 22 No data
North Haven 62 33 0 21 No data
Osborn 71 29 0 21 No data
Byron 85 15 0 20 No data
Cranberry Isles 60 35 5 20 No data
Deblois 95 0 0 20 No data
Edinburg 85 15 0 20 No data
Highland Plantation 60 40 0 20 No data
Orient 95 5 0 20 No data
Lincoln Plantation 58 37 5 19 No data
Northfield 63 37 0 19 No data
Whitneyville 94 0 0 18 No data
Westmanland 53 47 0 17 No data
Maxfield 88 13 0 16 No data
Pleasant Point Voting District 81 19 0 16 No data
Pleasant Ridge Plantation 81 19 0 16 No data
West Forks Plantation 81 13 6 16 No data
Beddington 87 13 0 15 No data
Caratunk 73 27 0 15 No data
Talmadge 73 20 7 15 No data
Dennistown Plantation 100 0 0 13 No data
Hammond 85 15 0 13 No data
Seboeis Plantation 69 31 0 13 No data
Garfield Plantation 83 17 0 12 No data
Brighton Plantation 91 9 0 11 No data
Cyr Plantation 91 9 0 11 No data
Hersey 90 10 0 10 No data
Indian Township Voting District 90 10 0 10 No data
Macwahoc Plantation 100 0 0 10 No data
Moro Plantation 80 20 0 10 No data
Webster Plantation 90 0 10 10 No data
Frenchboro 88 13 0 8 No data
Frye Island 75 25 0 8 No data
Great Pond 75 25 0 8 No data
Haynesville 88 13 0 8 No data
Nashville Plantation 50 50 0 8 No data
Matinicus Isle Plantation 0 100 0 7 No data
The Forks Plantation 71 29 0 7 No data
Waite 100 0 0 7 No data
Penobscot Nation Voting District 83 17 0 6 No data
Monhegan Island Plantation 40 60 0 5 No data
Isle Au Haut 33 67 0 3 No data
Aurora 0 0 0 0 No data
Cary Township 0 0 0 0 No data
Drew Plantation 0 0 0 0 0%
Franklin County Townships 0 0 0 0 0%
Glenwood Plantation 0 0 0 0 0%
Kingsbury Plantation 0 0 0 0 No data
Magalloway Plantation 0 0 0 0 No data
Oxford County Townships 0 0 0 0 0%
Piscataquis County Townships 0 0 0 0 0%
Rockwood Strip Township 0 0 0 0 0% <60
Springfield 0 0 0 0 No data
Vanceboro 0 0 0 0 No data
Wellington 0 0 0 0 No data

We stopped updating our estimates. These graphics and estimates are now showing archived data.

Live forecast

This is our current best estimate for the outcome of this race. We look at the votes that have been reported so far and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain. Read more about how it works.

Estimated margin

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast+40+30+20+10+10+20+30+40

Trump +48

Trump +46 to Trump +50

Estimating the final vote shares for Trump and Haley

This chart shows the range of estimates for the leading candidates’ shares of the final vote. As more votes are reported, the ranges should narrow as our statistical model becomes more confident.

Estimated and reported final vote share
Candidate Reported
vote share
Estimate of final vote share Needle chart
Donald J. TrumpD. TrumpTrump
73% 73% 72% to 74%
Nikki HaleyN. HaleyHaley
25% 25% 24% to 26%

How our estimates changed over time

Once a state has counted all its votes, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new data, our forecast is more trustworthy.

How our final margin estimate has changed so far

NYT estimate Reported vote share
Chart showing changes in the estimated margin over time+60 +40 +20 Even 12:34 PM 2:29 AM ET

Share of expected turnout reported

Chart showing changes in the total expected vote over time 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 12:34 PM 2:29 AM ET

What’s powering our forecast right now?

Our election model makes use of three indicators in creating an estimate of the final result.

Pre-election polls

0%

Our model

9%

Actual results

91%

  • Pre-election polls: At the start of the night, our estimate is based on pre-election polls, results of past elections and demographic data.
  • Our model: As results come in, we compare actual results in places that have mostly completed reporting to our pre-election estimates to create a statistical model for the remaining vote.
  • Actual results: As a county reports more of its vote, those actual results will gradually supersede our previous estimates.

Share of vote by town

What to expect

Polls close in Maine’s presidential primary at 8 p.m. Eastern time. In the 2022 state primaries, first votes were reported about 15 minutes later, and the last update of the night was at 2:16 a.m. Eastern time with 82 percent of votes reported.

All registered voters were eligible to vote absentee. They could return ballots by mail, drop box or in person, as long as they were received by the close of polls. Party members could only vote in their own party’s primary, but unaffiliated voters could choose one to participate in.

In many elections, including the presidential primaries, Maine uses a “ranked-choice voting” process in which voters may rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of voters’ first choices, subsequent tabulation rounds occur until a winner is determined. Maine Republican leaders have said they will only consider the first round of voting when allocating their delegates.

On Monday, Maine’s Secretary of State withdrew a challenge to Donald J. Trump’s eligibility to appear on the state’s primary ballot, following a Supreme Court ruling in favor of Mr. Trump in a separate case in Colorado.

The state primary, which will include races for state and congressional offices, will be held on June 11.

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