Alex Kirilloff: Searching for the Sweet Spot

Trying to figure out the 2024 Twins is sort of like trying to figure out what’s in a hot dog, it’s probably better to just keep it moving. Amidst the violent swings of losing and winning and losing again has been the quiet season for former top prospect Alex Kirilloff. The Twins went into the season expecting Kirilloff to be a weapon from the left side of the plate, splitting time at first base, the outfield, and designated hitter, but that hasn’t necessarily gone according to plan. As of May 21st, Kirilloff is carrying a modest .644 OPS (83 OPS+) through 134 plate appearances. It seems like he is out of sorts at the plate, but he may not actually be that far away from success.

CORNERSTONE AT THE CORNER

When the Twins drafted Kirilloff with the 15th overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, they envisioned an impact left-handed bat with defensive versatility, with Baseball America touting his “exciting power potential” leading into the draft. Since his first call up for the 2020 playoffs, Kirilloff has struggled to find consistency, both at the plate and with his playing time. Due to wrist injuries, Kirilloff has yet to play more that 88 games in a season. While he has played, Kirilloff has also had large platoon splits, posting a career OPS of .748 against right-handed pitching, while posting a career OPS of .620 against lefties. Despite coming off career highs in both plate appearances (319) and OPS (.793) in 2023, Kirilloff has still been relegated to largely a platoon status in 2024. This did not deter Kirilloff from getting off to a hot start, however, as he posted an OPS of 1.030 in his first 42 plate appearances. Since his hot start, Kirilloff has struggled mightily, as he has batted .145 and posted an OPS of .470 since April 13th. Like most Twins fans, I immediately wondered if Kirilloff’s surgically repaired wrist is giving him problems, but it might just be a simple concept: bad luck due to hitting a round ball with a round bat.

AIN’T QUITE HITTIN’

Matt Blewett- USA Today Sports

In looking at some of Kirilloff’s hitting profile, it’s hard to figure out why he has struggled so mightily in 2024. When one compares his 2024 metrics vs. his metrics from his best season, 2023, it’s a little bit of puzzle as to why he’s struggling.

Exit Velocity
2023: 88.6 MPH
2024: 90.6 MPH

Barrel %
2023: 7.4%
2024: 8.9%

Hard Hit %
2023: 37.7%
2024: 41.1%

While he is hitting the ball with more authority, some of the other numbers may point to his struggles.

Whiff %
2023: 27.6%
2024: 31.9%

Chase Contact
2023: 56.0%
2024: 40.5%

Expected Batting Average
2023: .261
2024: .206

The “Whiff” and “Chase Contact” rates would point to a hitter that is chasing and missing on pitches out of the zone, but why would his expected batting average be 55 points lower, despite an increase in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage? The answer may be as simple as the angle.

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE ANGLE

With the new bat tracking statistics on Statcast, we can take a more educated guess as to why Kirilloff is struggling. Overall, his bat speed metrics do not point at a struggling hitter, but in fact, Kirilloff’s swing profile looks more like the Twins’ best hitters in 2024, Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers.

Average Bat Speed
Kirilloff: 72.3 MPH
Kepler: 72.1 MPH
Jeffers: 73.3 MPH

Squared-Up Percentage
Kirilloff: 34.6%
Kepler: 30.8%
Jeffers: 29.3%

“Blasts” Percentage
Kirilloff: 17.6%
Kepler: 15.4%
Jeffers: 16.0%

Swing Length
Kirilloff: 7.7 feet
Kepler: 7.5 feet
Jeffers: 7.5 feet

Purely based up on the swing profile, it’s hard to figure out why Kirilloff is struggling. The secret, however, lies in the profile of batted balls in play for Kirilloff.

Topped
2023: 28.9%
2024: 36.7%

Under
2023: 22.1%
2024: 25.6%

Line Drive Percentage
2023: 31.9%
2024: 16.7%

Sweet Spot Percentage
2023: 40.2%
2024: 27.8% (13th Percentile in the MLB)

The “sweet spot” is defined by Statcast as a “batted ball event in the launch angle sweet-spot zone of 8-32 degrees.”

MLB/Baseball Savant

Kirilloff has seen an increase in batted balls that are both topped and popped up, which explains the 12.5% drop in balls on the “sweet spot.” The question that arises from that data is, how do you fix that? A main hope for a Twins fan is that Kirilloff is not seeing these dips due to his wrist injuries rearing their ugly head again. Hopefully it is either as simple as a mechanical tweak or even just hoping for some better luck. Either way, in a game that can see drastic swings in success based upon a quarter of an inch on the bat, the hope remains that Kirilloff can start finding the “sweet spot” in his 2024 season.