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Nvidia Is a Must-Buy. Or Is It?

The chipmaker’s high “price to sales” ratio reflects investor enthusiasm around its growth prospects. But relying on that metric created trouble during the dot-com boom.

In 2002, after the dot-com bubble burst and Sun Microsystems swooned, the company’s co-founder Scott McNealy highlighted the folly of Wall Street analysts who favored one particular financial metric to gauge a stock’s worth: its price relative to the company’s sales.

Mr. McNealy was musing about the “price to sales” ratio — an important measure of a company’s value relative to how much cash it generates. A high ratio can be justified if investors think a company has room to grow; a low ratio typically signals that investors think the company is accurately valued.

Using that metric, analysts had gambled that Sun’s stock was undervalued even when it was trading at more than 10 times its revenue — a value the business couldn’t ultimately sustain. Even if Sun passed every dollar it was making at the time on to investors, it would have taken shareholders a decade to recover their investment.

“Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are?” Mr. McNealy told Businessweek. “You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?”

The current stock market is evoking similar sentiment among some investors, led by the giant chipmaker Nvidia, the poster child of the exuberance around artificial intelligence. On Thursday, Nvidia’s stock price rose to almost 32 times its sales.

Stock Price Ratio Steadily Rises

3.5

-to-1

3.0

Price-to-sales

ratio

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2024

Current S&P 500 valuations

Price-to-

earnings

ratio

Price-to-

sales ratio

Market

value

Sector

Real estate

38.8

6.5

$1.0

trillion

Information

technology

36.7

7.9

12.3

Health care

29.4

1.8

5.4

Consumer

discretionary

28.8

2.3

4.4

S&P 500

24.7

2.6

41.8

Industrials

24.7

2.3

3.6

Materials

23.0

2.1

1.0

Comm.

services

22.5

3.4

3.8

Consumer

staples

21.5

1.3

2.5

Utilities

19.5

2.2

0.9

Financials

16.2

2.3

5.4

Energy

11.1

1.2

1.6

3.5

-to-1

3.0

2.5

Price-to-sales

ratio

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2024

Current S&P 500 valuations

Sector

Price-to-earnings

ratio

Price-to-sales

ratio

Market

value

Real estate

38.8

6.5

$1.0

trillion

Information technology

36.7

7.9

12.3

Health care

29.4

1.8

5.4

Consumer discretionary

28.8

2.3

4.4

S&P 500

24.7

2.6

41.8

Industrials

24.7

2.3

3.6

Materials

23.0

2.1

1.0

Communication services

22.5

3.4

3.8

Consumer staples

21.5

1.3

2.5

Utilities

19.5

2.2

0.9

Financials

16.2

2.3

5.4

Energy

11.1

1.2

1.6

Valuations figures are annual for the last 12 months ended each year and currently through Feb. 20, 2024.

Source: FactSet

By Karl Russell


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