‘Not Just a Silly Balloon’: Dismay and Fear Over Another U.S.-China Clash

Compared with the unease from Chinese fighter jets racing over the Taiwan Strait or naval standoffs in the South China Sea, the giant Chinese balloon floating over the United States last week looked to many in Asia like a puffy trifle.

But as American officials continue to press the issue, asserting that Chinese spy balloons are part of a global surveillance fleet, it has become impossible to separate the dispute from serious regional anxieties.

“It’s quite clear there is concern,” said Bilahari Kausikan, a former foreign secretary of Singapore, describing his conversations with leaders and foreign policy experts around the region. He added: “It’s not so much a balloon going over the U.S. and other countries, but what might happen in, say, the Taiwan Strait.”

All over Asia, current and former officials seem to still be shaking their heads with dismay. China and the United States had just started to mend their relationship with a meeting in Bali between President Biden and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, before the Group of 20 summit in November.

Then a big white balloon — China said it was for weather research; U.S. officials called it a spy craft — pushed both countries back to diplomatic distance, bringing another wave of disappointment and fear to a region whose security and prosperity are especially vulnerable to flare-ups between the two superpowers.

Many in Asian policy circles call the inflatable incident a marker of the moment. Stability and peace must be frighteningly fragile, they argue, if a windblown orb can whip up hawkish nationalism and suspend high-level dialogue on issues like nuclear weapons, climate change and trade. With trust in the two behemoths fluctuating in recent years across Asia, surveys show, the balloon battle and its aftermath may only deepen disquiet about how their rivalry shapes decisions that affect the world.