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The Housing Shortage Isn’t Just a Coastal Crisis Anymore

An increasingly national problem has consequences for the quality of American family life, the economy and the future of housing politics.

Emily Badger and

San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Washington have long failed to build enough housing to keep up with everyone trying to live there. And for nearly as long, other parts of the country have mostly been able to shrug off the housing shortage as a condition particular to big coastal cities.

But in the years leading up to the pandemic, that condition advanced around the country: Springfield, Mo., stopped having enough housing. And the same with Appleton, Wis., and Naples, Fla.

The housing shortage has spread to more parts of the country

Source: Up for Growth analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data. Shortage percentages reflect estimated housing units needed to meet demand, as a share of existing housing units. Metros with a surplus have enough housing for existing residents.

What once seemed a blue-state coastal problem has increasingly become a national one, with consequences for the quality of life of American families, the health of the national economy and the politics of housing construction.

Today more families in the middle of America who could once count on becoming homeowners can’t be so confident anymore. And communities that long relied on their relatively affordable housing to draw new residents can no longer be so sure of that advantage.

“It’s like the cancer was limited to certain parts of our economic body,” said Sam Khater, the chief economist at Freddie Mac. “And now it’s spreading.”

Metros Without Enough Housing That Lost Big Surpluses

Estimated surplus or shortage of housing units, as a share of existing units.

Metro area

2012

2019

Athens-Clarke County, Ga.

+12.0%

–2.4%

Punta Gorda, Fla.

+7.7%

–1.3%

Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, S.C.

+6.5%

–3.3%

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla.

+6.5%

–0.4%

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.

+6.2%

–2.8%

Muskegon, Mich.

+4.9%

–1.7%

Auburn-Opelika, Ala.

+4.9%

–0.9%

New Orleans-Metairie, La.

+4.4%

–1.6%

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.

+4.2%

–2.7%

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.

+4.1%

–2.3%

Yuma, Ariz.

+4.0%

–3.2%

St. George, Utah

+3.8%

–3.0%

Prescott Valley-Prescott, Ariz.

+3.7%

–2.8%

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.

+3.6%

–0.9%

Kankakee, Ill.

+3.5%

–2.1%

Note: Positive percentages represent enough housing for existing residents. Negative percentages reflect estimated housing units needed to meet demand, as a share of existing housing units.

Source: Up for Growth analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data.

Metros With Big Shortages That Once Had Enough Housing

Estimated surplus or shortage of housing units, as a share of existing units.

Metro area

2012

2019

Merced, Calif.

+1.9%

–8.7%

Bend, Ore.

+2.1%

–8.2%

Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.

+3.3%

–7.8%

Stockton, Calif.

+0.0%

–6.6%

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.

+1.9%

–5.8%

Vallejo, Calif.

+0.8%

–5.4%

Coeur d'Alene, Idaho

+0.3%

–5.3%

Fresno, Calif.

+0.1%

–5.2%

Appleton, Wis.

+0.5%

–5.2%

Racine, Wis.

+2.1%

–5.0%

Green Bay, Wis.

+0.6%

–4.9%

Naples-Marco Island, Fla.

+1.2%

–4.8%

Sheboygan, Wis.

+0.2%

–4.5%

Bakersfield, Calif.

+0.9%

–4.5%

Yuba City, Calif.

+2.1%

–4.5%

Note: Positive percentages represent enough housing for existing residents. Negative percentages reflect estimated housing units needed to meet demand, as a share of existing housing units.

Source: Up for Growth analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data.


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