Abstract
Short-lived and poorly organized convective cells, often called weakly forced thunderstorms (WFT), are a common phenomenon during the warm season across the eastern and southeastern United States. While typically benign, wet downbursts emanating from such convection can have substantial societal impacts, including tree, power line, and property damage from strong outflow winds. Observational studies have documented the occurrence of severe (25.7 m s‒1 or higher) wind speeds from wet downbursts, but the frequency of severe downbursts, including the spatial extent and temporal duration of severe winds, remains unclear. The ability for modern observing networks to reliably observe such events is also unknown; however, answering these questions is important for improving forecast skill and verifying convective warnings accurately. This study attempts to answer these questions by drawing statistical inferences from 97 high-resolution idealized simulations of single-cell downburst events. It was found that while 35% of the simulations featured severe winds, the spatial and temporal extent of such winds is limited - on the order of 10 km2 or less and persisting for around 5 minutes on average. Furthermore, through a series of simulated network experiments, it is postulated that the probability that a modern mesonet observes a severe wind gust given a severe downburst is around 1%. From these results, a statistical argument is made that most tree impacts associated with pulse convection are likely caused by sub-severe winds. Several implications for forecasting, warning, and verifying WFT events fall out from these discussions.
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