South Africa Votes in Most Competitive Election Since End of Apartheid

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at elections in South Africa and Madagascar, the world’s largest climate change case to date, and Brazil recalling its ambassador to Israel.

The ANC’s Biggest Test Yet

South Africans flocked to the polls on Wednesday for the country’s most competitive general election since the end of apartheid 30 years ago. More than 50 parties and, for the first time, 11 independent candidates appeared on the ballot, many of whom are trying to usurp the historic majority in the National Assembly and hold on the presidency that the African National Congress (ANC) has had. The polls closed at 9 p.m. local time, but many voters remained in line. The country’s electoral commission said they will all be able to cast their ballots. Final results are expected on Sunday.

The ANC has held power since the establishment of South African democracy in 1994, when it was led by activist Nelson Mandela. But for the first time, polls expect the ruling party to secure less than a simple majority in the National Assembly. If that occurs, then the ANC will need to form a coalition government to reelect President Cyril Ramaphosa for a second and final five-year term.

“The historical specters of colonialism and apartheid still cast long shadows over the country’s present,” Africa expert Ebrahim Fakir wrote in Foreign Policy. But the ANC’s legacy of broken promises and systemic corruption has hurt the party’s chances.

South Africa is the most unequal country in the world, according to the World Bank. In 2023, it had the highest sustained unemployment rate at roughly 32 percent, with 47 percent of South Africans relying on state welfare. The ANC has been criticized for failing to curb high crime rates and not delivering on land reform promises that were a key part of the party’s reparations platform following the end of apartheid. Frequent power blackouts and water shortages have also plagued the nation and even hindered voting stations’ ability to operate on Wednesday.

Ramaphosa has tried to reverse the ANC’s legacy of state corruption, which worsened under former President Jacob Zuma, who was forced to resign in 2018 and served a brief stint in jail for contempt of court. But party trust has still declined, going from more than 60 percent to 27 percent between 2006 and 2021.

The opposition has capitalized on the ANC’s failures. The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) party, which won the second-highest share of the vote in the last general election in 2019, has campaigned on rescuing South Africa from corruption and economic mismanagement. However, the party is historically seen as supporting the country’s minority white population, exacerbating racial disparities in the former apartheid state.

Other opposition groups include the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)—a far-left party that seeks to nationalize the country’s mines and banks, redistribute land from white farmers, and raise corporate taxes—and Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, which broke away from the ANC last year. Despite South Africa’s Constitutional Court ruling last week that Zuma cannot run for election until five years have elapsed since the completion of his sentence, the MK is competing in Wednesday’s election and thereby keeping his face on the ballot.

It is unlikely that the two most popular opposition parties—the DA and EFF—will join forces to oust the ANC from power, having as many issues with each other as they have with the ruling party. And while Zuma’s MK is expected to achieve a majority in his home province, KwaZulu-Natal, analysts predict that his major electoral wins will end there.

Today’s Most Read

• Why Is the World Ignoring a Looming Genocide in Sudan? by Robbie Gramer
• Can a U.S.-China Military Hotline Stop the Downward Spiral? by James Crabtree
• When Knowledge Stops at the Water’s Edge by Elisabeth Braw

What We’re Following

Climate legislation. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights held a final hearing in Brazil on Wednesday in the world’s largest climate change case to date. More than 600 participants across Latin America are asking the court to rule on whether states have a legal obligation to develop adaptation policies that effectively address climate-caused displacement. The ruling follows massive flooding beginning in Brazil last month that has killed at least 169 people and displaced 580,000 others so far. Justice Nancy Hernández López told Reuters that the court aims to issue an opinion by the end of the year.

Wednesday marked the latest climate case to hit major courts in recent months. In April, the European Court of Human Rights accused Switzerland of violating its citizens’ rights by not doing enough to combat climate change—a ruling that a Swiss parliamentary committee rejected last Tuesday. Also last week, South Korea’s Constitutional Court heard four cases accusing Seoul of failing to protect its citizens from climate change. And the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea ruled that countries must protect marine environments, even if that means going beyond requirements set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The International Court of Justice, the world’s highest court, is expected to issue a decision next year laying out the obligations of United Nations members in addressing climate change.

Malagasies vote. Madagascar held parliamentary elections on Wednesday, in which the ruling Young Malagasies Determined (TGV) party hopes to maintain its majority. Around 12 million people are eligible to vote. During Madagascar’s last national election—held in November 2023—voter turnout only reached 46 percent, a record low.

Last year, President Andry Rajoelina won a disputed third term despite the opposition accusing the TGV leader of intimidating polling officials and using public resources during his campaign. The other candidates also claimed that Rajoelina’s dual French citizenship automatically revoked his Malagasy one and therefore disqualified him from running.

Diplomatic spat. Brazil withdrew its ambassador to Israel on Wednesday. According to a source at the Brazilian foreign ministry, the decision was in response to Israel’s “humiliation” of the Brazilian diplomat, whom Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz summoned for a mandatory tour of the Yad Vashem memorial museum to reprimand Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for comparing Israel’s actions in Gaza to the Holocaust. Israel said it will summon Brazil’s chargé d’affaires on Thursday.

New premiers. Haiti’s transitional council appointed Garry Conille on Tuesday to be the nation’s next prime minister. Conille served as prime minister from October 2011 to May 2012 following Haiti’s devastating earthquake and later became UNICEF’s regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean. He will help oversee Kenya’s U.N.-backed security mission to quell rampant gang violence in Port-au-Prince.

In more premier appointment news, the Netherlands nominated former intelligence chief Dick Schoof on Tuesday to be the country’s next prime minister. His surprise announcement is backed by Geert Wilders’s far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and the three other parties in its coalition. The PVV won the Dutch election last November, but Wilders agreed not to seek the top office due to opposition from his coalition partners. Schoof will replace Mark Rutte, who has served as the country’s prime minister for the past 14 years.

Odds and Ends

South Korean authorities warned people along the border with North Korea on Wednesday of an “air raid.” But instead of rockets, Pyongyang launched something a little smellier. It sent hundreds of balloons carrying trash and animal feces to its neighbor, calling them “gifts of sincerity.” The unorthodox campaign was in retaliation for South Korea’s propaganda efforts, including Seoul sending inflatables carrying anti-regime leaflets, food, medicine, money, and K-pop music videos downloaded onto USB sticks.

Correction, May 30, 2024: A previous version misstated who founded the African National Congress.