Will Modi be as good as his words and retire at 75, leaving field for Amit Shah?

Madhavan Narayanan, Senior Journalist, told ET Now in an interview that while Amit Shah has clarified officially that there is nothing in the BJP's constitution that suggests a retirement after 75, but it appears that he is ducking the issue because the real issue is not what the BJP constitution says. The real issue is whether Modi is as good as his word becuse Mr LK Advani and others were retired or sidelined or made margdarshaks because they were older than 75. So, based on the same logic and Mr Modi's own words, he should be paving way for others at 75.


Does the BJP find itself in a blind spot on the subject of Modi retiring at 75 and Amit Shah taking over as raised by Kejriwal?
Madhavan Narayanan: Let us look at three things. One is that as a seasoned journalist, I feel we should never confuse campaigns with voting. What is clear is that Arvind Kejriwal has made a very big difference to the campaign. Voting is something that will vary from state to state and from constituency to constituency. But there are three significant factors in this.

First is that people like Kanhaiya Kumar are filling a very important gap in the opposition campaign because Modi is a very strong orator. So, if you match oratory with oratory and a certain rhetoric with rhetoric, it evens out the campaign. Other things remain on issues.

Second thing, more specifically with regard to what it means, Amit Shah has clarified officially that there is nothing in the BJP's constitution that suggests a retirement after 75. But if you really look at his words, he is ducking the issue because the real issue is not what the BJP constitution says. The real issue is whether Modi is as good as his word. If you look at the fact that Mr Advani and others were retired or sidelined or made margdarshaks because they were older than 75, then logically speaking, based on the same logic and Mr Modi's own words, he should be paving way for others at 75.

If that happens, there are three questions. First is, if Mr Modi is not there, what happens to Modi ki guarantee or Madi’s guarantee which has been a theme in this campaign? That means if he is not there, how can anybody be held accountable for the guarantees he gives? That is the first question. If he does not do that and stays on and becomes the prime minister, let us say, and fulfils or tries to fulfil his words, there are issues of integrity. Should we believe a person who says that he will retire at 75 but will not? So, I do not know.

You can always argue that these things only matter to the certain discerning middle class, people who are looking for people as good as their words or that jumla as part of politics as phrases being thrown or slogans being thrown, but to the extent that Mr Modi's legacy and personality stands for acclaimed, sticking to the words, guarantees to be fulfilled and a certain amount of character that will create peculiar questions and that needs to be answered by the party, not in terms of the party's constitution but in terms of concepts of integrity in public life.

As far as Yogi Adityanath is concerned, Kejriwal said that by not coming out in support of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adtiyanath, the BJP had made it clear he would be replaced within two months in case the party came back to power. Would you agree?
Madhavan Narayanan: Normally the party would go that extra mile to clarify on all questions, because the BJP is one party that does not leave any stone unturned. So, they have to cover the ground and it does pose a question on what is the if there is a succession strategy or if there is anything. Amit Shah is quite happily defending Mr Modi, but leaving the question on Yogi unanswered. Everybody from global investors to local people are always asking if there is a successor for Modi in terms of long term plans? If so, who would it be? So, both Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath are being mentioned.

In that context, Amit Shah not defending Yogi is also a matter of intrigue, or interest, if not intrigue. Whether it affects a larger constituency of voters when it comes to nuanced issues like succession and retirement is questionable. In fact, I began by saying that a campaign should not be confused with the voting patterns. But we are in the IPL season, which is also running along with the Indian Political League and sometimes I wonder if the release of Arvind Kejriwal from jail makes him what we call the impact player of this political league.

So, to that extent, questions are being raised in a manner and in a style that raises questions on the promise as well as the legacy of Mr Modi. At least from an intellectual point of view, these election is quite stimulating.

Yes, but is the agenda really changing at this point in time? You have a point to make?
Madhavan Narayanan: Yes, it is very important to understand two-three things. First is that yes, you yourself rightly talked about the agenda itself if you are talking to Congress or following its social media polls or the campaign speeches, it is about inflation, unemployment, and something that is connected with grassroots issues and Kejriwal adds health and education as major add-ons to that, to that extent the agenda looks different.

But I would also like to point out that casual impressions do not constitute voting patterns either way. Some people are coming out with conclusions that BJP will not win this time and there are still some people, if not the 400 + idea supporters that are saying Modi is coming again. But as far as women voters are concerned, it is important to understand we are a diverse nation and I have this theory that there is something which I call the Ayodhya- Ahmedabad axis.

If you draw a line from Ayodhya to Ahmedabad, that is a very influential zone for Mr Modi and as you go north and north or south and south, if you go by reporters, grassroots stories, as well as surveys, there seems to be a lesser impact. A typical journalistic question is who is your source? Was there a nationwide survey? Anecdotes do not make data.

If you look at how the women voted in Karnataka, it is very unique. There is a very interesting anecdote I want to share with you. Larsen & Toubro wants to get out of the Hyderabad metro project because women are taking the free bus rides instead of the metro. So, in Telangana, the Congress is hugely popular and similarly in Karnataka. So, we have to take it state by state and do a systematic survey. But we are only 20 days or so away from the D day.