Hurricane Beryl grew into a Category 4 major hurricane Sunday afternoon and takes aim at the Caribbean as another system forms into a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of 8 p.m., the hurricane was located about 200 miles southeast of Barbados and 260 miles east-southeast of St. Vincent with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph moving west-northwest at 18 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 115 miles.
“On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday,” said NHC hurricane specialist Philippe Papin.
Hurricane warnings are in place for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada and the island of Tobago. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Martinique and Trinidad. A tropical storm watch is in place for Dominica, the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti and the South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault.
“Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands,” Papin said.
The intensity is forecast to grow to even more with 140 mph sustained winds and 165 mph gusts before it passes by the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles with the danger of devastating wind damage.
Storm surge is forecast to be as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal levels along with large and destructive waves while 3 to 6 inches of rain are forecast to fall across Barbados and the Windward Islands into Monday that could cause flash flooding.
Its five-day forecast keeps the storm south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola but close to Jamaica still as a major hurricane on Wednesday before heading farther west toward the Yucatan peninsula by Friday as a Category 2 hurricane.
“The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl’s intensity to level off and then gradually weaken,” said John Cangialosi, NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist. “However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next five days.”
#hurricane with max winds of 115 mph – the 3rd earliest Atlantic major hurricane on record, trailing Alma (6/8/1966) and Audrey (6/27/1957). pic.twitter.com/RYXqSGomta
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 30, 2024
Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach with Colorado State University said Beryl’s quick growth into Category 3 major hurricane is the third earliest on record for the Atlantic behind 1966’s Hurricane Alma and 1957’s Hurricane Audrey.
It’s also the first June major hurricane on record east of the Lesser Antilles, he said, having already claimed the record for farthest east a hurricane has formed in June besting one from 1933.
The earliest Category 4 hurricane on record is Hurricane Dennis that grew to that intensity on July 8, 2005.
Trailing Hurricane Beryl farther east is an area of low pressure in the Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.”
The NHC gave is a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% in the next seven.
The other system is in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and formed into a tropical depression Sunday afternoon. As of the 7 p.m. update the storm is moving west at 12 mph and is 145 miles southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico. The storm has sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm before it reaches the coast late Sunday but weaken as it moves inland over eastern Mexico.
“The system is moving toward west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and is expected to approach the eastern coast of Mexico tonight and move inland on Monday morning,” forecasters said.
The system is expected to drop between 4 to 8 inches of rainfall across portions of eastern Mexico through Monday. There’s also the possibility of localized flooding and mudslides from the system’s maximum total of 15 inches of rainfall.
The government of Mexico issued a tropical storm warning from Cabo Rojo south to Puerto Veracruz.
The next two names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, are Chris and Debby.
The first named story of the season, Tropical Storm Alberto, formed on June 19 after a slow start to the season. The height of hurricane season, though, runs from mid-August into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast an above average year in the Atlantic with 17 to 25 named storms, of which eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, and four to seven of those be major hurricanes.
