2022 Kentucky DerbyRich Strike, 80-1 Long Shot, Wins Kentucky Derby in Stunning Upset

The colt wasn’t even in the field until Friday, when he drew into the race after another horse was scratched. But he came from behind to pull off one of the biggest shocks in Derby history.

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Rich Strike, right, held on down the stretch on Saturday to beat Epicenter, middle, who went off as the betting favorite.Credit...Christian Hansen for The New York Times
Pinned

Rich Strike instantly became a king of horse racing.

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Rich Strike, right, winner of the 148th Kentucky Derby, was in the field only because another horse was scratched.Credit...Xavier Burrell for The New York Times

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The Sport of Kings. Ha!

Thoroughbred races have increasingly surrendered to the sheikhs and princes, the hedge fund wizards and industrialists, the fat cats who could plunder their vaults and pay whatever it took to secure a regally bred horse who, they hoped, could run a hole in the wind.

But that was not the story on Saturday in the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby. Not after an 80-1 long shot named Rich Strike, who did not even earn his spot in the starting gate in America’s greatest horse race until Friday, seemed to follow Moses’ path through the Red Sea to a three-quarter length victory that had appeared impossible.

When Rich Strike hit the wire low and long as if he were trying to sneak past a hall monitor, most of the Churchill Downs swells searched their programs to see who wore the 21 saddlecloth. Discerning horse fans everywhere hit Google to make the acquaintance of the jockey Sonny Leon and the trainer Eric Reed.

What they found was a colt who had one victory on his résumé and had been picked up on the cheap in a $30,000 claiming race. Then there was the jockey, who had ridden six races on Friday at Belterra Park, a minor league track in Ohio. And finally there was the trainer, who had hyperventilated on Friday morning when he was notified that a colt named Ethereal Road had scratched from the Derby, opening a gate for him to place a horse in the Kentucky Derby for the first time.

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The jockey Sonny Leon with Rich Strike after winning the Kentucky Derby.Credit...Christian Hansen for The New York Times

“I’m going to pass out, I’m so happy,” Reed said, trying to wipe the astonishment from his face. “This is the reason everybody does this. This is the most unbelievable day ever possible.”

Rich Strike, who covered the mile and a quarter in 2 minutes 2.61 seconds, rewarded his believers with a whopping $163.60 on a $2 bet to win. It was the second-biggest upset in the race’s history, behind only Donerail in 1913 who paid $184.90.

Uplifting stories have been hard to come by in America’s oldest sport these days. Bob Baffert, who trained Medina Spirit — last year’s Derby winner, until he wasn’t — was not here, having been sidelined by a 90-day suspension because of Medina Spirit’s failed post-race drug test.

But his horses were. Baffert’s Messier and Taiba were handed off to a former assistant, Tim Yakteen, so the ghost of the white-haired trainer hovered beneath the Twin Spires.

The other contenders had blue-blood ownership and were conditioned by gold-plated trainers. Steve Asmussen, the winningest trainer in North America — 9,731 and counting — saddled Epicenter, and the four-time Eclipse Award champion trainer Chad Brown had high hopes for Zandon.

For a dozen seconds or so in the deep stretch, it sure looked as if one of them was going to take down his first Derby victory. Their horses bounded down the lane together, two shadows trying to escape the sun.

But Leon and Rich Strike were having none of it. Leon knew he had a horse who had a powerful motor and iron lungs. The colt’s owner, Rick Dawson, has been in the sport long enough, and with an abiding respect for it, that he vowed never to put one of his horses in a spot where he could be embarrassed.

Sure, Rich Strike, the son of Keen Ice, last won in September. And he did not stamp himself a world beater in his subsequent races, finishing a well-beaten third in his last outing, a stakes race at another second-level circuit, Turfway Park, 90 miles up the highway in Florence, Ky.

In fact, most thought Rich Strike performed even that well largely because the race was on “plastic,” the derogatory name for the safer synthetic surfaces that have been barely embraced by the American racing establishment. But Dawson knew his horse.

“We talked about this a year and a half ago,” he said. “We talked about never putting a horse in if it wasn’t ready, it wasn’t fit. And we just knew that we had a shot because every time he went longer, he got better. And today we go to a mile and a quarter and he just kept going.”

Both Dawson and Reed gave credit to a crafty ride by Leon, a Venezuelan, who looked as if he had cut his teeth in Saratoga rather than Ohio’s Thistledown. To put Leon’s drive and place in horse racing’s hierarchy into perspective, only 10 jockeys won more races than he did in 2021.

Sixty five of them, however, made more money than he did.

Leon guided Rich Strike almost 90 degrees out of the gate, going from the 20th path to the inside. Then, they rode the rail like a couple of hobos.

Leon and his colt were unhurried as they followed 17 other horses chasing a wicked early pace into the far turn.

“Nobody knows my horse like I know my horse,” Leon said.

Leon started guiding his horse through the pack, zigzagging like someone late for work on a busy Manhattan sidewalk. Ahead of them, Epicenter and Zandon looked each other in the eye for what was going to be duel to the wire in the middle of the track.

“I had to wait until the stretch and that’s what I did,” Leon said, “and then the rail opened up.”

Both Brown and Asmussen were leaning toward the winners’ circle. One of them, surely, was going to end up there. Instead, Leon and Rich Strike flashed past them like a bottle rocket.

“I got beat by the horse that just got in,” Asmussen said.

Brown was equally forlorn, sighing, “He just snuck up our inside.”

Reed, for his part, was swooning as he watched.

Leon had been on Rich Strike for the past four starts. He was the colt’s professor as much as passenger.

“He taught him to go between horses,” Reed said. “I didn’t think I could win, necessarily, but I knew if he got it, they’d know who he was when the race was over.”

Yes, they do. Rich Strike is the Kentucky Derby champion.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 8:08 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

The connections of Rich Strike are all smiles at the winners’ news conference. His trainer could have been mistaken for the bugler before the race. Now they will be household names in the racing world.

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Credit...Melissa Hoppert for The New York Times
Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:51 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

The trainer, jockey and owners of Rich Strike, who certainly lived up to his name in the Derby, paying his backers $163.60 on a $2 bet to win, just walked into the press room here at Churchill Downs for the customary news conference with the winners. Loud cheers escorted them into the building.

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Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:19 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Rich Strike, the longest shot in the field, comes out of nowhere to win the Derby.

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Rich Strike, ridden by Sonny Leon, paid $163.60 on a $2 bet to win.Credit...Xavier Burrell for The New York Times

Rich Strike, the 80-1 shot ridden by Sonny Leon and trained by Eric Reed — certainly not household names in horse racing, let alone the sport’s biggest stage — mounted a furious and improbable rally to capture the 148th Kentucky Derby on Saturday in front of the first full crowd at Churchill Downs since 2019.

Before Friday morning, Rich Strike was not even in the field. He drew into the race when Ethereal Road was scratched. Reed joked then that he needed CPR. After the race, he was sweating and out of breath.

“I’m going to pass out, I’m so happy,” he said. “This is the reason everybody does this. This is the most unbelievable day ever possible.”

Rich Strike, who won by three-quarters of a length and covered the mile and a quarter in 2 minutes 2.61 seconds, rewarded his believers with a whopping $163.60 on a $2 bet to win. Only Donerail in 1913 won the Derby with longer odds at 91-1.

Two favorites heading into the race, Epicenter and Zandon, battled to the end, finishing second and third. It was another heartbreaking loss for Epicenter’s Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who has somehow never secured a Derby victory.

Before Saturday, Rich Strike’s only victory in seven tries came in a claiming race on the dirt at Churchill Downs. He had run on a synthetic track in his previous three races, including when he finished third in his final prep, the Jeff Ruby.

On Saturday, in front of an announced crowd of 147,294, Rich Strike was behind 17 horses heading into the far turn and behind 14 horses as they entered the stretch. Benefiting from the blazing-fast pace set in the first half of the race, he wove his way through the 20-horse field, scooted up the rail, burst past Epicenter and Zandon and somehow ended up first when it mattered most: at the finish.

Meanwhile, the sport’s most recognizable face, Bob Baffert, was far from Churchill Downs, and his Barn 33, once the epicenter of the backside during Derby week, was oddly silent.

Baffert is serving a 90-day suspension handed down by Kentucky regulators after Medina Spirit, the apparent winner of last year’s Kentucky Derby, failed a drug test and was disqualified. Taiba and Messier, the colts he trained until the end of March before they were transferred to the barn of his former assistant Tim Yakteen, finished 12th and 15th.

Organizers had hoped for a drama-free race after several years of chaos. They endured the Medina Spirit debacle in 2021 with a limited crowd (Mandaloun was not even awarded the victory until February). In 2020, the race was moved to September and run without spectators because of the pandemic. And in 2019, after a tense, 22-minute review period that played out on live television, Maximum Security was disqualified for interference and the 65-1 shot Country House was named the winner.

There was still plenty of dramatics on Saturday as an 80-1 shot came out of nowhere to capture America’s most famous race. But at least there wasn’t controversy, and the start of a heartwarming run at the Triple Crown took flight.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:11 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

“I’m gonna pass out, I’m so happy,” Rich Strike’s sweaty trainer, Eric Reed, said while gasping for breath. “This is the reason everybody does this.”

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:06 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Rich Strike, the longest shot on the board at 80-1, pulls off one of the biggest shockers in Derby history. He wasn’t even in the field before drawing in with a scratch on Friday.

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Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:05 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Rich Strike surges ahead to win the Kentucky Derby! What!?!

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:04 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Epicenter makes his way up there. So does Zandon.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:03 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Crown Pride and Messier are also in the mix in the front of the pack. A blazing fast pace.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:02 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Summer Is Tomorrow goes straight to the lead.

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Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:02 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

And they’re off in the Kentucky Derby!

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:01 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

The horses are entering the gate. The crowd is on its feet. The noise is deafening.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 7:00 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Taiba, 12-1 on the morning line, is holding his own against Epicenter as a favorite entering the gate. He’s currently 5-1. Epicenter is 4-1.

Mike Wilson
May 7, 2022, 6:58 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

We have reached the official post time, but it will be a few minutes before the race begins. Some of the horses are still trotting a couple of hundred yards from the gate.

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Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:54 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

The Derby horses are saddled and on the track, getting in their last bit of exercise before heading toward the starting gate.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:52 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Mark Messier called me this afternoon to tell me how excited he was about his namesake’s chances in the race. Because he’s been covering the N.H.L. playoffs, he wasn’t able to travel to Kentucky to watch Messier. But he’ll be watching from his home in Connecticut with his brother and father, a huge horse racing fan. How huge? Mark Messier once bought his father a racehorse for Christmas.

Mike Wilson
May 7, 2022, 6:49 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Former President Donald J. Trump was shown on the large video screen. People cheered, people booed. There was a brief chant of “U.S.A.!” Everyone moved on.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:49 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

The cherished but controversial “My Old Kentucky Home” is being played as the horses make their way to the racetrack. The track announcer acknowledges the complicated history of the song, the subject of a new book by a Louisville native, before it is sung.

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Mike Wilson
May 7, 2022, 6:46 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

With just a few minutes until post time, the grandstand is alive with excitement, the chatter as loud and persistent as rushing water, all but drowning out the track announcer.

Xavier BurrellChristian Hansen
May 7, 2022, 6:46 p.m. ET

Xavier Burrell and

Take in the scene at Churchill Downs.

  1. Christian Hansen for The New York Times
  2. Xavier Burrell for The New York Times
  3. Xavier Burrell for The New York Times
  4. Christian Hansen for The New York Times
  5. Xavier Burrell for The New York Times
  6. Xavier Burrell for The New York Times
Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:45 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

The rapper Jack Harlow, who is a Louisville native, just did the “riders up” call. He was supposed to do it last year but he got caught up in a shooting at a club the night before the race. His D.J. was charged in the case.

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Joe DrapeMelissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:40 p.m. ET

Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Here’s what our experts think.

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Last year’s Kentucky Derby.Credit...Xavier Burrell for The New York Times

Joe’s Pick: Smile Happy

Post Position: 5 Trainer: Kenny McPeek Jockey: Corey Lanerie Odds: 20-1

Joe Drape: He won here as a 2-year-old, and McPeek knows how to point them at big races. My pick.

Melissa Hoppert: He turned heads during his 2-year-old season, but he has finished second in two starts this year. A real question mark.

Melissa’s Pick: Epicenter

Post Position: 3 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Joel Rosario Odds: 7-2

Hoppert: This winner of four of six races, including three preps in Louisiana, has a lot going for him: a versatile running style, a top jockey and a Hall of Fame trainer who is long overdue in adding the Run for the Roses to his résumé.

Drape: Here’s your likely post-time favorite, and I cannot blame anyone who bets on him. But he is not a lock.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:40 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

“Eye of the Tiger” and “Livin’ on a Prayer” blared as the horses and their connections made their way from the barns to the racetrack. They passed by screaming fans on their way to getting saddled in the paddock.

Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:30 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

After two years of pandemic restrictions, Derby organizers say: Let’s party!

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Annie Locke, left, and Layni Lawton talked with friends in their box at Churchill Downs.Credit...Christian Hansen for The New York Times

Churchill Downs regularly hosts more than 150,000 revelers on Derby day, but the pandemic put a damper on the party the past two years.

In 2020, the Belmont Stakes, normally the final leg of the Triple Crown, was held in June, the Derby in September and the Preakness, usually the second of the three races, came last, with a new date in October. None allowed fans.

All returned to their regular spots on the calendar in 2021 but allowed a reduced number of patrons. The announced crowd for the Derby was 51,838.

This year, there is no cap on attendance and no masks are required.

“We’ve always said that we would adhere to whatever the state of Kentucky was operating under, and at this time, there are no capacity restrictions in restaurants, sporting facilities, no mask requirements or requirements to show vaccination,” said Tonya Abeln, a spokeswoman for Churchill Downs.

One popular change from last year has returned and even expanded, albeit with a significant hike in ticket prices: All seats include unlimited food and drinks, a move intended to reduce lines and the exchange of money. (Fans in the infield will still be confined there and will have to pay $12 for a mint julep, although a paddock redesign that is expected to be completed for the 150th Derby should bring back the standing-only ticket option.)

Last year, vendors wandered the aisles freely passing out drinks, and there were no lines, even for the bathrooms. “Isn’t this great?” was a common phrase heard around the grounds.

“We received an overwhelming response from our guests in attendance that they preferred the ease and convenience of the all-inclusive experience, so we made the decision to expand that to our full-capacity event this year,” Abeln said.

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Mike Wilson
May 7, 2022, 6:26 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Talking to owners, you’d expect the race to be a 20-way tie for first, because nobody thinks his or her horse is going to finish second.

Jack Wolf, a principal in the group that owns Messier, saw a Liquor Barn commercial this morning in which one of the actors was wearing the colt’s silks. It had to be a sign! Also, as Samantha Cripps, another Messier supporter, pointed out, Mark Messier won six Stanley Cups, and Messier will be breaking from Gate 6. So you all should definitely bet everything on Messier.

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Credit...Mike Wilson for The New York Times
Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:16 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

It’s called the walkover. The horses and their connections are making their way to the paddock via the racetrack.

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Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 6:10 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Here are some horses (and people) to root for.

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Fans gathered at the backside of the track to watch early morning workouts.Credit...Xavier Burrell for The New York Times

Horses’ names are always popular. Happy Jack is named after a song by The Who. Messier, who is trying to become the third Canadian-bred horse to win the Kentucky Derby, was named after the hockey great Mark Messier. Cyberknife is named after the treatment that sent his owner Al Gold’s cancer into remission. Gold has been inviting cancer patients to the barns to meet his horse.

Personal achievements are always special, too. Mike Smith, aboard Taiba, will try to become the oldest jockey to win the Derby at 56. Besides Tim Yakteen, who took over Messier and Taiba from Bob Baffert, five other trainers will be saddling their first Derby horses: Bhupat Seemar (Summer Is Tomorrow), Koichi Shintani (Crown Pride), John Ortiz (Barber Road), Brian Lynch (Classic Causeway) and Eric Reed (Rich Strike).

Reed didn’t know that until Friday morning, when D. Wayne Lukas, 86, scratched what would have been his 50th Derby horse, Ethereal Road. “They’re giving me CPR right now,” Reed joked with reporters.

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Mike Wilson
May 7, 2022, 6:02 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

A couple of hours before the race, Ron Winchell, owner of Epicenter, was in his suite, entertaining family and friends. He was hoping that his daughters, Margaux, 6, and Madison, 13, would feel the joy of seeing one of their horses win the Kentucky Derby, a thrill that has so far eluded Winchell — but not just him. His father, Verne, chased victory here for 50 years and never had a horse finish higher than fourth. Ron Winchell is 0-for-8 at the Kentucky Derby, and Epicenter’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, is 0-for-23. What would a win mean? “Everything,” Winchell said.

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Credit...Mike Wilson for The New York Times
Xavier Burrell
May 7, 2022, 5:50 p.m. ET

Hats off to these Derby fans.

Windy and chilly weather didn’t keep people from coming dressed in their Saturday best, including headpieces in a kaleidoscope of colors and styles.

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Joe Drape
May 7, 2022, 5:30 p.m. ET

Mourning Medina Spirit, whose 2021 win was reversed.

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Medina Spirit after finishing first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.Credit...Xavier Burrell for The New York Times

The rain pelted the headstone, leaving streaks on the black marble and mirroring the misty eyes of the 100 or so admirers who had come to say goodbye. None of them knew the deceased well. Many had seen him only on television.

They lifted plastic shot glasses filled with Kentucky bourbon to the gloomy heavens and murmured melancholy toasts to the departed, Medina Spirit.

I attended a memorial service for the racehorse who finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, only to have his victory erased after a failed drug test. A thoroughbred typically lives 25 years. Medina Spirit was dead before he turned 4.

All he did was what he was supposed to do: run fast. Those who knew and loved him still mourn what happened after that.

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Melissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 5:10 p.m. ET

Reporting from Louisville, Ky.

Messier’s owners are hoping he can deliver wins the way another Messier did.

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Mark Messier has a horse named after him in this year’s Kentucky Derby.Credit...Steven Ryan/Getty Images

When Messier enters the starting gate as one of the favorites for the 148th Kentucky Derby, he will be trying to become only the third Canadian-bred horse to win the race. Many people will be rooting for him, few more fervently than the man he is named after, the former N.H.L. great Mark Messier.

Mark Messier, who was born in St. Albert, Alberta, won six Stanley Cup championships, five with the Edmonton Oilers and one with the New York Rangers, and is the only player to captain two teams to hockey’s ultimate prize.

Tom Ryan, the managing partner of SF Racing, which co-owns the horse, is married to Katie Hughes, the daughter of Pat Hughes, who played with Mark Messier and Wayne Gretzky on the Edmonton Oilers teams that won the Cup in 1984 and 1985. Katie Hughes’s uncle Mark Napier also played on the 1985 team.

A few years ago, Ryan and his family attended an Oilers reunion in Edmonton, and Ryan said that he was so enamored with Messier after speaking with him that he knew he wanted to name a horse after him.

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Messier worked out at Churchill Downs on Wednesday.Credit...Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

When it came time to name the colt, who was born at Sam-Son Farm in Milton, Ontario, and purchased for $470,000 as a yearling, Ryan knew that this was the one who should carry the name.

Hughes had one requirement for Ryan.

“The only thing I told him when he told me wanted to name a horse Messier was that he better get it right,” Hughes said. “Messier is one of the greatest to ever play the game, and you don’t want to mess with a name like that.”

So far, the horse is holding down his end of the bargain. He has finished first or second in six starts, earning $435,600.

Mark Messier, who is an analyst for ESPN and is covering the N.H.L. playoffs, was unable to make it to the Derby. But he has followed the horse’s career and will be rooting him on from his home in Greenwich, Conn., along with his brother, Paul, and his father, Doug, a former player and coach and avid horse racing fan.

“We’ve all just so enamored with it,” Mark Messier said, adding that he once bought his father a share of a horse as a Christmas present.

Hughes tested positive for the coronavirus and will watch from his home in Ann Arbor, Mich. He said he texts with Mark and Doug Messier to keep them updated about the horse.

Mark Messier’s leadership helped the Rangers end a 54-year Stanley Cup drought in 1994, earning him the nickname the Messiah. He has also been called the Moose because of his determination, aggression and strength. Messier’s breeders said the colt exhibited similar traits when he was a youngster.

The people rooting for Messier would love to pull into the Belmont Stakes next month with a Triple Crown on the line and drawing counsel from the man who has another nickname, perhaps the most relevant one: Mr. June.

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Joe Drape
May 7, 2022, 4:52 p.m. ET

Gamblers are dropping hints about their Derby favorites with their bets on the Oaks-Derby Double.

Secret Oath was an impressive winner in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on Friday, but not a surprising one, according to the payoffs of the Oaks-Derby Double.

If Zandon, the morning-line favorite, wins the 148th running of America’s most famous race, bettors who paired him with Secret Oath will get $36 for a $1 bet. The biggest payoff for $1 would be Rich Strike, who will pay $973.

There are some clues in the following list of payoffs that show which presumed Derby long shots are taking money. Charge It, for example, is 20-1 in the Derby but will return $67 in the double bet, while White Abarrio (10-1) returns $79. That suggests bettors believe Charge It will outrun his odds.

Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (No. 1, $10.80) with:

1. Mo Donegal $51

2. Happy Jack $622

3. Epicenter $25

4. Summer Is Tomorrow $511

5. Smile Happy $97

6. Messier $40

7. Crown Pride $96

8. Charge It $67

9. Tiz the Bomb $238

10. Zandon $36

11. Pioneer of Medina $534

12. Taiba $32

13. Simplification $201

14. Barber Road $329

15. White Abarrio $79

16. Cyberknife $91

17. Classic Causeway $550

18. Tawny Port $651

19. Zozos $301

21. Rich Strike $973

Joe DrapeMelissa Hoppert
May 7, 2022, 3:45 p.m. ET

Bob Baffert’s absence creates an opportunity for trainers who have longed to win the race.

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Tim Yakteen has taken over two horses, Messier and Taiba, that had been trained by Bob Baffert.Credit...Ashley Landis/Associated Press

Bob Baffert is absent from Churchill Downs, and his Barn 33, once the epicenter of the backside during Derby week, is oddly silent, but as the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby draws closer, the two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer is hardly forgotten.

The colts he trained until the end of March, Messier and Taiba, will be front of mind among casual fans and horseplayers on Saturday and very likely at the front of the pack after the gates of America’s most famous race open.

Baffert is serving a 90-day suspension handed down by Kentucky regulators after Medina Spirit, the apparent winner of last year’s Kentucky Derby, failed a drug test and was disqualified.

The ongoing horse opera now has a new leading man: Tim Yakteen. He is a former assistant and longtime friend of Baffert and knows the Hall of Famer’s system well.

“I sort of had a lottery ticket dropped in my lap,” Yakteen, 57, said, “and I’m just trying to cash it in.”

This is his first Derby as a head trainer, a milestone that he conceded could be as nerve-racking as it is exciting. Messier and Taiba are contenders with similar front-running styles and will be ridden by Hall of Fame jockeys — John Velazquez aboard Messier and Mike Smith on Taiba.

“I was hoping to try and keep a low profile,” said Yakteen, who was born in Germany while his father was serving in the military and moved to the United States at 18. “That might not be as easily accomplished as I would be hoping.”

Messier (8-1 in the morning line) is the more seasoned of the pair, a two-time stakes winner who has never finished worse than second. But the undefeated Taiba (12-1) is the most intriguing colt in the 20-horse field.

He is trying to win the Derby after only two starts, a feat accomplished only once before, by a horse named Leonatus in 1883. Taiba won his debut race by more than seven lengths in March, then blew past Messier in the stretch to win the Santa Anita Derby by two and a quarter lengths in April.

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