NEW YORK — You couldn’t see it on television or the box score, but Royals manager Ned Yost marked a special occasion Thursday at Yankee Stadium. After 18 games of using 2018 statistics to prep for games and sketch out in-game matchups, Yost switched over to 2019.
“Once you get to the 50 at-bat mark,” he said, “you can kind of tell who’s hot, who’s cold.”
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This is April baseball, a month where numbers mislead and samples deceive, a month where every trend is dubious. This is a month where Yost doesn’t really believe anything until a couple of weeks in.
It’s possible, for instance, that Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi will finish the season with 32 triples. He entered Saturday with four, and given that his team had played almost exactly one-eighth of their season, he remained on that pace.
But there is a reason, of course, why no player has finished with at least 32 triples since Chief Wilson had 36 in 1912. And there is a reason why baseball people view April stats with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Royals general manager Dayton Moore likes to say that a fair evaluation of a team requires close to 40 games. Yost does not start paying attention to individual statistics until at least 50 plate appearances. In short: With all apologies to Mondesi, he is not finishing with more than 30 triples.
“It’s baseball, man,” Yost said.
But what of the other early trends from this young Royals season? Is Scott Barlow a high-leverage reliever? Can we believe in Alex Gordon? Is Jorge Soler destined to lead the American League in strikeouts? Is there a way we can feel good about making any definitive statements in April?
Probably not.
“The old saying is a tiger doesn’t change his stripes, and 90 percent of the time, that’s true,” Yost said. “But one out of 10, sometimes you figure something out, and they do change.”
With that in mind, let’s investigate some early trends:
1. Scott Barlow’s velocity is up. Can he sustain it?
Barlow, 26, has taken to his new role in the bullpen, recording a 2.25 ERA and his first career save in eight innings across five appearances. His peripheral numbers offer some optimism — 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings — yet it’s his velocity jump that could be most intriguing.
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Barlow’s fastball averaged 91.2 mph in 2018 as he reached the majors for the first time. One year later, it is sitting at 94 mph and occasionally touching 95. Some of the increase, of course, is due to his role in the bullpen. Yet Barlow also credits a mechanical issue identified by pitching coach Cal Eldred.
“I had a tendency to kind of fall off to my left side a little bit,” Barlow said. “But I’m kind of working on finishing straight and almost drawing a perfect straight line to home plate. When you come off, you lose a little bit of power.”
With more power behind his fastball, a slider that he deploys 43 percent of the time, and a curveball that he refined in 2017, Barlow has the combination of velocity and off-speed to be effective in a short-burst relief role. The Royals believe he’s just scratching the surface.
“Are we looking in the future at a more consistent 95 mph? I think so,” Royals manager Ned Yost said. “But right now, he’s spotting his 92 to 95 fastball really well and, of course, his strength is his spin.”
2. Can Alex Gordon keep avoiding strikeouts?
From 2011 to 2018, Gordon struck out at least 100 times in every season except one — 2015, when he was limited to just 104 games and still struck out 92 times.
In some ways, Gordon mirrored the baseball culture at large: He struck out a career-high 148 times in 2016. He topped 140 in both 2012 and 2013. In a long and prosperous career, he has struck out in about 21 percent of plate appearances.
Gordon one of the best on-base percentages on the team, grinding out at-bats and seeing pitches. Yet he also sacrificed strikeouts for run production and OPS.
In 2019, however, Gordon is suddenly evolving. In 20 games, he has clubbed 11 extra-base hits and posted a .939 OPS. More important: He’s struck out just nine times in 88 plate appearances.
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“Alex is different right now,” Yost said.
From a production standpoint, Gordon’s April represents a return to form after a severe decline in 2016 and 2017, and a slightly improved 2018. Yet the process looks totally different.
13th career four-hit game for Gordo. He's now batting .390 on the season. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/40I26g5Diq
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) April 13, 2019
He’s swinging at just 23 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, according, according to Baseball Info Solutions, which represents his lowest mark since 2015. He’s making contact on 90 percent of swings when the pitch is in the strike zone, which is also a career high.
He is getting ahead in the count. And he is not swinging at pitches outside the zone. And for now, it’s one reason to believe that his start is sustainable.
“He is doing something different,” Yost said. “We’ll see how it goes. Very few guys will make radical changes. (Mike Moustakas) did. Moose went from dead pull to starting to spray the ball all over the field. Alex has.”
3. Can Jorge Soler stop striking out?
While Gordon has cut down on his strikeouts, Soler is on pace for a career high. He’s struck out 31 times in 21 games; he entered Saturday with the fourth-worst strikeout percentage (36.6 percent) in the majors; he is on pace for 239 strikeouts, which would smash the franchise record. (Bo Jackson struck out 172 times in 1989.)
Yost believes Soler will regress to the mean. He’s still been productive in the power department, hitting five homers and driving in 14 runs. He’s slugging .481 with a .772 OPS.
Yet the plate discipline could be cause for concern. In 2018, Soler posted a .354 on-base percentage and drew 28 walks in 61 games. This year, he’s swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone and making less contact on just 32.1 percent of those swings, down from 42.1 percent last season. As a result, he’s walked just seven times in 21 games and his on-base percentage is .291.
The good news, of course, is the sample size is small enough that the numbers could change dramatically before the end of the month. For now, the Royals are hopeful they will.
(Photo of Gordon: Julio Cortez / Associated Press)