The Kyler Murray-Josh Rosen debate that has consumed the Cardinals, their fans and, let’s face it, much of the NFL the past few weeks has been framed by familiarity.
First-year coach Kliff Kingsbury knows Murray well, having helped recruit him to Texas A&M, where he was offensive coordinator before taking the Texas Tech head coaching job. He’s certain Murray is the perfect fit for his Air Raid offense. Therefore, the Cardinals will trade Rosen and take Murray with the No. 1 pick April 25.
Advertisement
All that may be true. But it fails to recognize the true scope of the debate. The Cardinals aren’t just choosing between two quarterbacks. They’re making a decision that will define the franchise for years to come.
“It doesn’t get any more franchise altering than that one,” said Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network analyst. “It’s a decade-plus decision. I think the next contracts for everyone in that building will depend on what happens with that pick.”
Let’s dig deeper into the debate, then, and see how a third quarterback, Seattle’s Russell Wilson, might influence Arizona’s thinking.
In the Dec. 31 news conference to announce the firing of coach Steve Wilks, general manager Steve Keim said he was “embarrassed” to have the No. 1 overall pick. He’s probably feeling a bit different about it these days.
“You never want to have the first pick because of what that means, just like I don’t ever want to have the second pick again,” San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “But when you are at these spots it’s pretty neat – you’re going to get a good player.”
The Cardinals have two choices. They can play it safe by holding on to Rosen and taking one of the top defensive players or swing for the fences by selecting Murray.
“It’s a good problem,” Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay said. “… However it turns out, we have a problem on our hands for a division opponent. We’ll see which direction they go.”
Murray is the sexy choice because he and Kingsbury seem made for each other. Also – and this can’t be overstated – Murray is the shiny new toy still in its package. There are no scratches or dents. Only the promise of a good time.
Rosen, on the other hand, was muddied last season and no longer holds the same value as he did leading up to the 2018 draft. Longtime NFL writer Peter King recently told The Athletic that the Cardinals likely won’t get a top-40 pick in a trade.
Advertisement
Jeremiah believes the prudent move is to avoid the temptation that’s Murray, keep Rosen and select Ohio State pass rusher Nick Bosa with the No. 1 pick. His reasoning? Judging Rosen off last season’s performance is shortsighted and foolish.
“He had just nothing to work with,” Jeremiah said, citing Arizona’s injuries along the offensive line and weak group of wide receivers. “I like Rosen a lot. It seems like everybody has just forgotten about the guy and what he can do.
“From a short-term perspective you’ll generate excitement with Murray and with the Cardinals not being very good up front on the offensive line he can cover up some of those warts with his athletic ability. But long term I believe a little more in Josh as a traditional NFL quarterback. To me I would be trying to build up around him.”
The Rams can attest to the benefits of that plan. In his rookie season, with Jeff Fisher as coach, Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff completed just 54.6 percent of his passes with more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five). Just two years later, under McVay’s tutelage, he led the Rams to the Super Bowl.
Might Kingsbury have the same impact – if perhaps not the same gaudy results – with Rosen?
Still, Murray’s ideal fit in Kingsbury’s offense will be hard for the Cardinals to ignore. Then there’s the question of whether Keim will be worried about making the same mistake twice. In 2012 he was a skeptic of North Carolina State’s Russell Wilson because he didn’t think a quarterback of Wilson’s stature – 5 feet 11 inches, 204 pounds – could succeed in the NFL.
The Cardinals could have tried to trade back up into the second round to take Wilson. Instead, they stood pat and watched as Seattle chose Wilson in the third round, with the 75th overall pick. Five picks later Arizona selected Oklahoma cornerback Jamell Fleming.
Advertisement
“I just didn’t think there was a good comp for Russell Wilson, and I was wrong,” Keim told King years ago. “When I think back now, it was a chickenshit call by me. I didn’t have the balls to take Russell Wilson.”
It’s hard to imagine that sort of regret and self-flagellation won’t influence Keim’s thinking about Murray.
Make no mistake, though: Arizona is taking a huge gamble if it trades Rosen and takes Murray No. 1. He’s not a sure thing, an Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning. If Murray were to wind up being another Robert Griffin III, a Heisman Trophy winner whose style of play led to taking too many hits and, eventually, resulted in too many injuries, the damage to the franchise would be catastrophic.
The Cardinals won’t just be looking for another quarterback. They’ll likely be in the market for a new head coach and general manager, as well.
But, if Murray is “one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks to ever play,” as Kingsbury put it, Arizona will be in same, enviable position as the Rams (McVay, Goff) and Kansas City Chiefs (Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes): Offensive-minded coaches getting the best out of young, dynamic quarterbacks.
So which way should the Cardinals go?
“It’s a little bit boom or bust,” Jeremiah said.
(Top photo of Kyler Murray at his pro day last month: Jerome Miron / USA Today Sports)