BLACKSBURG, Va. — We’ve reached a rare moment in Blacksburg when, for once, people actually care more about the basketball team than the football team.
Granted, it took a historic Sweet 16 run and arguably the best basketball coach and certainly the most vibrant coaching personality in school history coupled with the football team’s worst season in 26 years and an extremely closed-off spring with the football team to get to this point.
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Still, here we are.
That’s clear in the mailbag questions, the most urgent of which are basketball-related. Let’s get to them.
Do you think it’s nearly a done deal that Buzz Williams goes to A&M after this season or is there still hope? If Buzz does leave, what do you think the chances are that Kerry Blackshear, Landers Nolley and a few recruits follow him? — Will T.
Let’s tackle Buzz right off the bat, since it’s the elephant in the room during this postseason run: It sure sounds as if there’s a great chance he goes to Texas A&M.
I’m not basing this off my limited basketball knowledge but rather the reporting of those around college basketball who are in the know, like The Athletic’s Seth Davis, who wrote that a lot of people in the sport would be surprised if Williams turned down the A&M job, and Yahoo’s Pete Thamel, who wrote that it’s “close to an inevitability” that Williams will take the job. Williams hasn’t shot down the rumors despite ample opportunities to do so, there have been absolutely no other rumored possibilities for the A&M job and Hokies athletic director Whit Babcock reportedly has been vetting coaching candidates. Those aren’t positive signs for the Hokies.
Now, never say never until they’re at the introductory news conference (and on rare occasions, even after that), and if there’s a coach who would zig when everyone expects him to zag, it’s Williams, who, as anyone who has been in Blacksburg the past few years can attest, marches to his own beat. But the lure of home (he’s from Texas), a big payday (A&M prints money), a place he knows (he was an assistant there under Billy Gillispie from 2004-06) and, frankly, a school that has a little bit more basketball tradition than Tech (the Aggies have six Sweet 16 appearances, with three in the past 12 years) is going to be tough to turn down.
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Who knows what a Williams departure would mean for the players who’d remain on the roster. Nolley would have to sit out a year if he went anywhere else. Blackshear, I believe, is a graduate, which would give him some options. He’s also someone who’s 6 feet 10 and averaged 14.9 points and 7.3 points in the nation’s premier basketball conference. I’d be more interested in seeing if he’d want to test the NBA waters.
As for the recruiting class, that’s always a concern, especially because in basketball the players are so tied to the coach. That could go either way, but a single class usually isn’t that important, especially since a new coach can go out and find some players of his own during the late signing period.
My advice to Hokies fans: Just sit back and enjoy the ride. When Williams got here, there wasn’t much of a basketball program to speak of, with three consecutive last-place finishes in the ACC. Now Tech is in the Sweet 16, having made the NCAA Tournament in three consecutive seasons for the first time and winning two games in the same NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1967, when the postseason wasn’t remotely similar to what it is today.
As colleague David Lombardi wrote, this team went from 2-16 in the ACC in Williams’ first season to the Sweet 16 in his fifth. That’s a remarkable turnaround. And now the Hokies are about to play in the biggest game in school history, squaring off with top overall seed Duke (and with Ty Outlaw even!). The future might be uncertain, with a good chance Williams could be headed elsewhere, but the present’s still something to savor. Don’t miss the opportunity.
When will money from the new ACC Network start coming in? I know it launches in August, but will Tech actually get paid then? Any extra cash would help if we have to try to bid against Texas A&M for Buzz’s services. —Geoffrey S.
With our athletic department budget, can we consistently be competitive in basketball and football, or will we see a see-saw of success for each, where one team succeeds, the coach gets hired away and the rebuild process begins again?—Clay W.
I think people need to be aware that the ACC Network isn’t going to be some sort of panacea for Virginia Tech’s financial realities. It will be a nice boost when up and running and churning out profits. How soon that’ll be remains unclear because there are up-front costs and carriage issues to iron out in the early stages of a network launch. But even if it eventually gets to the conservative estimates of producing an additional $10 million per year per school, that’s not going to launch Tech into the stratosphere of college football revenues.
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For starters, every ACC school will get that bump, so Virginia Tech’s sixth-place standing among public schools in the league in terms of annual revenues will remain where it is. And even if you tack on $10 million to the Hokies’ $87 million in revenues last fiscal year, that still puts Tech only 36th nationally, behind Missouri and Illinois and barely ahead of Rutgers and Kansas.
Compare that to a school such as Texas A&M, which was second behind Texas in annual revenue in 2016-17, which is the latest available data. A&M rakes in $211 million annually. Here’s a head-to-head between Texas A&M and Virginia Tech in a few categories:
Ticket sales: A&M $47.4 million, VT $17.3 million
Contributions: A&M $93.1 million, VT $15.7 million
Rights/licensing: A&M $61.3 million, VT $36.6 million
Now, A&M’s contributions total is somewhat misleading because the school is in the middle of a fundraising drive for facilities, which boosts those numbers in single years. Still, its revenues are more than double Tech’s at the moment. So a little extra money from the soon-to-launch ACC Network will only help so much.
The reality is Virginia Tech always will have to work smarter than other schools to compete because it’s always going to be at a disadvantage from a money standpoint relative to college sports’ top dogs. Whatever Tech could raise to pay Williams to try to keep him in Blacksburg is an amount A&M probably has hidden in the toes of its cowboy boots. Virginia Tech’s hope has to be that Williams’ decision won’t be solely about money.
The Hokies can level the playing field by making smart hires and finding undervalued coaches to keep its good thing going. That’s what Babcock did when he plucked Williams from a disintegrating marriage at Marquette, and it’s what he’ll have to do again if he has to make a new hire in basketball.
And Clay is right with his question: It makes it hard to be good in both sports at the same time. Turnover doesn’t help. At the same time, I don’t think the football team’s current ebb has anything to do with the basketball team’s sudden rise. It’s not like the Hokies are diverting resources from football to prop up the basketball program.
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Football is and always will be the most-funded sport in Blacksburg by quite a large gap. And that support hasn’t waned at all lately. The Hokies just hit a rough patch that, in part, had to do with the coaching transition and effect it had on the roster. So I think the football success will return to normalcy at some point, simply because Tech invests so much in it and will continue to do so.
The Hokies’ budgetary restraints will make it hard to consistently do that in basketball, where the athletic department has devoted a lot of money in recent years and with only limited return in terms of revenue. That’s probably part of the reason Tech will only pay so much for a basketball coach. If football is good, that’s a financial windfall for the school. If basketball is good, it’s nice and fans enjoy it to a degree, but it’s not necessarily a huge bump in money pouring in. Perhaps that can change with time, but for the moment, that’s the reality. And that’s why Tech probably will have a tough time keeping a really good coach in basketball while it has a much better chance of doing so in football.
How long does the waiver appeal process typically take and when do you think we’ll hear the outcomes of the appeals for Brock Hoffman and Braxton Burmeister? — Dionis T.
You never can tell with the NCAA, which has a lot to sort through. Hoffman’s paperwork has been submitted; I’m not sure about Burmeister’s. Best guess is there will be an answer in a couple of weeks, in late spring.
Hoffman’s situation seems like it’s automatic. His mother, who lives in Statesville, N.C., recently had a brain tumor removed. Transferring from Coastal Carolina to Virginia Tech means he is moving closer to home to help out. I can’t imagine the NCAA denying that waiver.
Burmeister’s case is a little less clear, though the way the NCAA has been handing out waivers lately — particularly when the school a player is leaving doesn’t object — probably is a good sign for the Hokies.
That said, I don’t think the Burmeister decision would have that much of an impact on this season. While Hoffman likely would slide into a starting spot at center, the odds that Burmeister arrives this summer, learns the whole offense and unseats starter Ryan Willis seem low. Best-case scenario seems to be that Burmeister gets the waiver, competes for the backup spot this fall, then challenges Quincy Patterson and Hendon Hooker for the starting job in 2020.
Thoughts on Mekhi Lewis winning Virginia Tech’s first NCAA wrestling championship this past weekend in Pittsburgh? — Jason B.
I know little about wrestling, but I do have an ample amount of experience in detecting what excites a fan base. And while Twitter isn’t always the best indicator of how many people are paying attention, it does tell you the degree of passion that’s coming from the people who are interested in something. And everyone seemed quite hyped about Lewis’ national title last week. From the sound of it, people at some bars in Blacksburg were the same way.
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Wrestling is going to move the needle only so much, but when somebody does something for the first time in school history, as Lewis just did, that’s a big deal. And he’s only a redshirt freshman. This could be the start of a special career at Virginia Tech. So kudos to Lewis, an eight seed who knocked off the No. 1, 2 and 4 seeds on his way to the title. I’m sure Hokies fans would love to see the basketball team knock off a few higher seeds in the same manner.
I have enjoyed the recent articles on the quarterback transfer and the one about the offense; however, none of this really matters without an improved defensive line and defensive backs. What is going on in those areas? — Rusty W.
They’re both works in progress, which probably can be used as a blanket statement for the entire defense. Granted, there’s no other way to describe the position groups on a unit that gave up 438.7 yards per game last season, which ranked 98th nationally.
The thing I’ll note about the defensive line is that the players don’t look really big. That’s always been somewhat by design for the Hokies, who are all about speed at those spots. And with two seniors in the group, neither of whom is practicing right now because of injuries, it’s still a position that needs physical development. But there don’t seem to be a lot of Tim Settles and Ricky Walkers out there, guys who were both large in stature and with their presence on the field.
Walker was the only sure thing on last season’s defense, and with him gone, that leaves plenty of uncertainty, especially along the line. I think tackle Jarrod Hewitt is doing and saying all the right things; I just wonder if you’ll see him all of a sudden turn into a force on the interior. After all, he had just 15 tackles last season, even though he started 10 games. If DaShawn Crawford is the real deal out of junior college, that would help quite a bit.
Emmanuel Belmar was solid but not spectacular at end and TyJuan Garbutt showed some promise, but there are no real sure things on this line. There are questions, too, about Houshun Gaines, who is coming back from an ACL tear. That’s cause for concern because if the Hokies don’t shore up that front and turn around a unit that gave up 210.3 rushing yards per game last season (106th nationally), any improvements in the secondary aren’t going to matter much.
On that front, there’s plenty of work to do, as well, though I think once the Hokies get to full strength, there are at least more options. The safety spots seem relatively set, with Reggie Floyd and Divine Deablo as starters and Khalil Ladler the presumed whip once he gets healthy. That’s a lot of experience, with Tech having especially high hopes for Floyd as a senior and Deablo as a physical specimen who’s putting it all together.
Cornerback has a few more questions, even with two returning starters in Caleb Farley and Bryce Watts, who took their lumps last season. I’m curious to see how much Jeremy Webb and Nadir Thompson can add once they’re fully healthy. At the least, Tech won’t go into a game wondering what the heck it’s going to do once it gets past its third cornerback.
Do you expect the Hokies to get involved with anyone in the transfer portal, and who do you think might be a surprise contributor on offense and defense? — Joshua B.
The Hokies’ “portaling” (is that a word?) might be done. By my rough count, Tech has 67 scholarship players on campus right now, with another 16 arriving this summer. Hoffman and Burmeister then would make 85, which is right at the limit.
Obviously, things constantly are in flux with scholarships and it’s possible more guys leave before the start of the season. But I think it’s probably a safe bet that the Hokies are done on the transfer market for the moment.
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As for surprise contributors, those are tough to pick because if you knew about them at this stage, they wouldn’t be a surprise. I’ll try to pick an off-the-radar player on both sides of the ball, though.
Offensively, let’s go with Drake DeIuliis. I’m basing this off one comment from Justin Fuente earlier this week about how he’s liked the H-backs this spring. Dalton Keene obviously is the starter, and it sounds as if coaches love what James Mitchell is doing in all facets of his game. But Fuente also said DeIuliis has looked good. And at 6 feet 5 and 242 pounds, he’s a big-bodied guy who is a little different than Tech’s other tight ends. He’s had a tough time staying healthy, but he seems as if he could be a unique guy to help the Hokies beat press coverage.
Defensively, I’ll go with Thompson. This might be a bit more obvious than DeIuliis, since Thompson probably was on track for more playing time last season before he tore his ACL. But the cornerback spots are by no means locked down and Thompson, despite injuries last season and as a senior in high school, is a burner, with legit track speed. He’s in a blue, limited-contact jersey right now and might be for the duration of spring as he works his way back from last year’s injury, but I have to think he’ll get a good, long look once the medical staff gives him the full-go this summer. And when they do, he’ll be an interesting option to possibly enter the mix.