In-season sleepers: Nine players to stash on your watch list

Just because draft season is over doesn’t mean we can’t have a sleepers list.

To be sure, some of the players whom we considered to be sleepers heading into drafts are no longer deserving of the label. When I was first compiling my list about three months ago, I anticipated that I would own Matt Chapman, Nick Senzel, Elvis Andrus, Yasiel Puig and Zach Wheeler on several teams. I did draft these players in some early mocks. Over time, they became more popular and were no longer the great values I expected them to be.

But bargain shopping season never really ends in fantasy baseball. While owners have been in a frenzy spending their full pots of FAAB dollars on Fernando Tatis Jr., a number of unowned players deserving of a roster spot aren’t getting much attention. I’ve picked out five players I will have on my watch list in 12-team leagues and another four I will have on my watch list in 15-team leagues. If the early weeks break right for these players, I’ll be looking to add them wherever I can.

Full disclosure: I haven’t kept an actual watch list (other than in my head) in years. But if I get in the habit again, these players will be on it.

Watch List Candidates for 12-team mixed leagues

Omar Narváez, C, Mariners

As much as anyone else, I lost interest in the catcher position once J.T. Realmuto and Gary Sanchez came off the board. If you weren’t fortunate enough to draft either of them, there’s a decent chance that Narváez will be more productive than the catcher you got in a one-catcher league.

In each of his first three seasons, he has shown an ability to hit for average and get on base, and he could be even better in those regards this year. In 2018, he batted .275, even though his strikeout rate spiked from 15.3 percent the previous year to 20.2 percent. His K-rate should regress, but his .330 BABIP may not. Of hitters who have made at least 500 plate appearances since 2016, only Freddie Freeman has a higher line drive rate than Narváez’s 28.3 percent, and he is in the bottom 10 percent for pull rate. Both trends bode well for hits on balls in play.

Narváez became a better power hitter last season, increasing his ISO from .063 to .154. If he can maintain that, he could be an upgrade over more popular catchers like Danny Jansen, Francisco Cervelli and Welington Castillo.

Wilmer Flores, 1B, Diamondbacks

I included Flores in my draft prep piece on NL-only sleepers, but he could ultimately have significant mixed league appeal. He should get regular starts at second base, providing him with multi-position eligibility as soon as early next week. Over the past three seasons, Flores has hit 45 home runs over 1126 plate appearances. He should get to approximately 600 plate appearances in 2019, so if he maintained his rate from 2016 forward, Flores would be on track for 24 home runs this year.

The former Met batted third in his Diamondbacks debut on Thursday, and he figures to be a middle-of-the-order presence for the team throughout the season. Toss in a batting average around .270 with his projected power and run production, and you have the makings of a top-15 first baseman and top-12 second baseman.

Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers

Would Pederson have made this list if I compiled it after Thursday’s games? Perhaps not, as his two-homer performance may send some owners to the waiver wire.

As of this writing, though, Pederson is owned in only one-third of the leagues on CBS and ESPN. Once again, the Dodgers have a crowded outfield, and I suspect that had something to do with Pederson not getting drafted in more leagues. Even as a platoon player, he could reach 25-plus homers for the fourth time in his career. He has been the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter against righties since last June, and if he continues in that capacity, he should break the 70-run barrier for the first time in his career.

Pederson is clearly a more attractive option in daily lineup leagues, since he probably won’t play much against left-handed starters. Even in weekly leagues, he should be a useful hitter to stream off the bench, particularly in weeks when the Dodgers won’t have to face the lefty-heavy rotations of the Padres and Giants.

Aníbal Sánchez, SP, Nationals

I kept waiting for Sanchez’s ADP to rise, but he barely cracked the top 300 overall. Perhaps owners didn’t trust last season’s massive reduction in his HR/9 (from 2.22 in 2017 to 0.99 in 2018) and BABIP (from .354 to .255), but Sánchez was barely throwing his cutter two years ago. He also did a better job of locating his changeup lower and getting more grounders with the pitch in 2018.

We should expect some regression, but with an improved arsenal, Sánchez should still be better than average at inducing soft ground ball-contact. A mid-3.00 ERA with strong run support are reasonable expectations, and starters with that profile shouldn’t be left on waivers in 12-team leagues.

Zack Eflin, SP, Phillies

Now that Eflin has secured a rotation spot, there is no reason for him to go unowned in 12-teamers, yet his ADP was lower than Sanchez’s. I’m just not sure what there isn’t to like here, other than maybe the relatively limited track record of success. Eflin got nearly a strikeout per inning last year (123 Ks in 128 IP), had solid control (46.5 percent Zone%, 6.8 percent BB%) and was good at limiting hard airborne contact (91.3 mph average exit velocity on fly-balls and line drives, according to Baseball Savant). That last indicator is especially encouraging for a pitcher who calls Citizens Bank Park home.

It could be Eflin’s 4.36 ERA from 2018 that may have deterred owners on draft day, but he stranded only 68.4 percent of his baserunners. He should improve on that below-average mark, and as with Sanchez, run support shouldn’t be a problem.

Watch List Candidates for 15-team mixed leagues

Yandy Díaz, 3B, Rays

At least as long as Matt Duffy (hamstring) is out, Díaz should see regular playing time, and I suspect he will still get in the lineup frequently throughout the season. At minimum, he should provide a boost to your team’s batting average or on-base percentage. He makes frequent contact and few players hit the ball harder on grounders. That might sound like faint praise, but that skill is good for the BABIP. It’s no accident that Díaz has a career .351 mark. In fact, his xBABIP exceeded his actual BABIP by at least 15 points in each of his two seasons (per xStats).

The biggest question for Díaz is whether he – of the career 56.6 percent ground-ball rate – will start lofting the ball and hitting for power. If he does, it shouldn’t have a major impact on his batting average, given how hard he hits the ball. That would add to his value, but even with his current floor, Díaz is worth owning just for his AVG/OBP and run production potential.

Daniel Palka, OF, White Sox

Do you need power more than batting average? If so, Palka’s your guy. Among hitters with at least 250 batted balls in 2018, he ranked ninth in average exit velocity on flies and liners. Even with a 34.1 percent strikeout rate, Palka smashed 27 home runs in just 449 plate appearances. Rostering the 27-year-old means you’re signing up for a power-for-batting average tradeoff. Not only did Palka strike out frequently as a rookie, but according to FanGraphs, he ranked 12th in pulled fly-ball rate among 198 hitters with at least 100 fly balls.

Palka did make headway on his strikeout rate in his second go-around in Triple-A, back when he was a Twins prospect. In 2016, he struck out in 38.6 percent of his plate appearances, and in the following season, he dropped that rate to 22.1 percent. Maybe in his sophomore season, Palka can make a similar adjustment and make more contact, lifting his average well above .240. Even if he doesn’t, between his raw power, pull tendencies and homer-friendly home park, he could top 30 home runs and 75 RBIs.

Joey Rickard, OF, Orioles

If Odúbel Herrera were available in a 15-team league, you would snap him up, right? Now that Rickard stands to play more regularly, there’s not much that separates him from the Phillies’ center fielder. Take a look at each player’s stats from 2018.

Their profiles are mostly similar. Both are decent contact hitters with normal pull tendencies but not a lot of power on fly balls and line drives. Yet both had AB/HR ratios that were better than the major league average, likely because they were aided by cozy home parks. Rickard has actually been more of a fly-ball hitter, so he may be a better bet for 15-to-20 home runs. Like Herrera, he is fast enough that he has the potential to chip in with double-digit stolen bases.

Jaime Barria, SP, Angels

Barria is the one player featured here who is starting out the season in the minors. Having him on your watch list, then, means not only tracking his progress at Triple-A Salt Lake, but also looking for weak spots in the Angels’ rotation. Both Félix Peña and Chris Stratton have some bullpen experience, so if all goes well for Barria, it’s not hard to imagine at least one of them moving to a relief role. The righty is just 22 years old and had an impressive rookie season to build upon. He induced swinging strikes on 10.4 percent of his pitches, and if not for subpar called strike and foul rates, he would have improved upon an 18.3 percent strikeout rate. He was also proficient at getting hitters to pop up (23.1 percent rate, per xStats), which helped him to achieve a svelte .271 BABIP.

Both Barria’s slider (18.0 percent SwStr%, per FanGraphs) and changeup (16.8 percent SwStr%) were good swing-and-miss pitches, so if he improves his fastball, he could be a real strikeout threat. Despite his current absence from the major league roster, he should have an opportunity to rack up innings and break out in his second major league season.

(Top photo: Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)