Beaten down and beaten up, the Suns are stumbling toward the finish of what could be the second worst season in franchise history. With 17 victories, they need to go .500 over their final eight games to match last season’s total of 21 wins, which is second only to the club’s 16-win total in its inaugural season. Yet, there are signs of promise with a core of players that starts with rookie center Deandre Ayton and fourth-year guard Devin Booker. Those two are the foundation of a group that Kelly Oubre Jr. has dubbed The Valley Boyz. The Athletic is looking ahead at how the players around Booker and Ayton might fit beyond this season. Who makes sense long-term with a young “Valley Boyz” core? Who could be a potential trade chip? Who will be in – or out – of the rotation next season?
Today: T.J. Warren Jr.
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T.J. Warren Jr.
Age: 25
Size: 6-8, 215 pounds.
Position: Forward.
2018-19 stats: 18.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 1.5 assist in 43 games. 48.6 percent shooting, including a career-best 42.8-percent on 3-point shots.
Contract: Warren is getting $11.75 million this season in the first year of a four-year, $50-million extension he signed in 2017. There are no team or player options.
There may be no bigger question mark on the Suns roster than T.J. Warren Jr.
Still only in his fifth NBA season, he has shown that he can be a consistent 20-points-per game scorer. Like another plug-and-play, point-a-minute guy, former Suns forward Cedric Ceballos, he can do it without ever having a play called for him.
That has value in the NBA.
And how can one fail to appreciate how Warren, who had shot just 28.3-percent from 3-point range over his first four seasons, devoted himself last offseason to improving his long-range accuracy?
Colleague C.J. Holmes explained earlier this season how Warren remade his shot, and the improvement has been startling. He has taken 180 3-point shots – double the number he attempted last season – and made 42.8 percent of them versus 22.2 percent last season.
And Warren has made them from around the arc. Per cleaningtheglass.com, Warren has made 47 percent of his corner 3s and 40 percent from other 3-point spots on the floor.
Add to all of this that Warren has a friendly contract, especially for a player who has averaged 21.4 and 20.4 points per 36 minutes over the past two seasons respectively, according to basketballreference.com.
As noted above, he’s earning $11.750 million this season in the first year of a four-year extension he agreed to in 2017. The number actually drops to $10.81 million next season before returning to $11.75 and then up to $12.69 in 2021-22. That’s enough for the Suns to consider keeping him around. However, his production for those numbers also might make him attractive on the trade market.
Trouble is, while Warren has a proven knack for scoring in a variety of ways, especially with that improved 3-point stroke, he doesn’t bring a whole lot more to the table.
He’s not a good rebounder, which is in part a reflection of playing a lot at the four instead of his more natural small forward spot. He doesn’t make an impact defensively, and he’s not long and rangy like the other forwards on the Suns roster, Mikal Bridges, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Josh Jackson.
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He’s an 82-percent free throw shooter, but middle of the pack among forwards in terms of drawing shooting fouls or fouls on the floor.
And then there is the biggest question about Warren: durability.
Factor in his availability over his first five seasons, and that contract suddenly doesn’t look like as much of a bargain. He has played 43 games this season, missing five games because of what was described as soreness in his right ankle. He returned, but then went out again when the soreness – which he has said is from a bone bruise – flared. He is expected to miss his 25th game in a row in Utah.
Suns coach Igor Kokoskov has continued to insist that Warren will return to the lineup if and when he is healthy enough for it.
“TJ is an extremely talented player, a very important piece of this roster,” Kokoskov said.
And James Jones, the club’s vice-president for basketball operations and acting co-general manager, said it is the team’s decision to be patient.
“That’s our call,” Jones told The Athletic recently. “He’s working to get back on the floor and get back into game shape. We would never let him put himself at risk, and we would never put him at risk. Anytime you have a prolonged injury, there is no just jumping back into it. There’s a progression, and we’re in that progressive stage right now.”
Warren has never played more than 67 games in a season. He missed time with head, back, foot and ankle injuries through the years, reportedly including a fractured bone in his foot during the 2015-16 season. He was inactive in the team’s final 11 games last season, and if he doesn’t play again this season he will have an average of 52 games played per season in a five-year career.
That’s not good.
Bottom line, it doesn’t help his value should the Suns try to move him to another team this offseason. And that might ultimately determine whether he stays or goes. The Suns remain overloaded at the wing with needs at point guard and power forward.
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Depending what happens in the draft lottery, the draft and in free agency, it is reasonable to expect the Suns to gauge interest in Warren and Jackson.
Warren is a proven commodity, both in terms of production and durability. Jackson’s ceiling remains a tantalizing unknown — and he plays.
(Photo: Soobum Im / USA Today Sports)