INDIANAPOLIS — The scouting combine is as much about what goes on after midnight at Prime 47 or before 9 a.m. at the JW Marriott Starbucks as it is the on-field workouts. It’s a ceaseless rumor mill, populated by agents, scouts and just about every member of NFL coaching staffs and front offices.
After a week in the weeds, here are some extended thoughts on the Lions’ offseason plans:
1. As you may have read in previous posts on here, there never was any real danger that Romeo Okwara would walk as a free agent this offseason. Either the Lions would use the second-round RFA tender on him — no team was going to cough up that draft capital for Okwara — or they’d sign him to an affordable multiyear deal. They went the latter route, announcing Friday that Okwara had signed a two-year contract. The NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero put the per-year average on that deal at north of what a Round 2 tender would’ve paid Okwara: around $3.1 million (the overall cap has been set at $188.2 million).
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“It looks fine” for both sides, an NFL source told The Athletic. “You don’t want to drag these things out if you don’t have to.”
Okwara’s base salary and cap hits aren’t officially in the system yet (as of early Monday morning), but his 2019 cap hit likely will land in the $3 million-$3.5 million range, with a bump closer to $5 million next season. (Editor’s note: Okwara’s extension came in lower than initially believed, just shy of $7 million total. His cap hit will be in the $2 million-$2.5 million range this year, depending on bonus, and slightly above $4 million next year.)
One takeaway: That’s not “starter” money, per se, even though Okwara played 72.5 percent of the Lions’ defensive snaps last season. It’s a perfectly reasonable contract for a No. 3 edge, though. There is much more work to do at the position.
2. In terms of how the draft board might fall ahead of Detroit, at picks 1-7, it was a good few days for GM Bob Quinn. Those Kyler Murray-to-Arizona rumors? They’re not just talk for the sake of talk. Other franchises are operating under the assumption that a) Arizona’s interest is legit, and b) what actually happens might be wholly contingent on what the market might be for Josh Rosen.
And on that Rosen note, I think there would be more interest in him than seems to be the going perception. His stock is down from last year, but he’s still just one season removed from being a top-10 pick and carrying a rookie-contract price tag for three more years (with an option for a fourth). Were he part of this draft class, he’d be right up there with Murray and Dwayne Haskins at the top. If push comes to shove, I’d be willing to bet the Cardinals can get at least a Round 2 pick and maybe even a first. If they can’t, he’s cheap enough that they may as well keep him and let him compete with Murray.
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But beside Murray and Haskins picking up steam as top-5 choices, the respective testing numbers of Quinnen Williams, Rashan Gary, Noah Fant, Jawaan Taylor and especially D.K. Metcalf all could work to Detroit’s benefit. In a deep class, those players — Metcalf most of all — separated themselves over the weekend workouts.
The chances that at least one of Allen, Quinnen Williams or Gary is there at 8 are growing. (Now, discuss among yourselves whether you trust Gary.)
3. It continues to feel like cornerback will not be the play at 8, and some of the measurements this week showed why. Greedy Williams did run a 4.37 40, among other things, but he also weighed in at 185 pounds (on a 6-foot-1, 7/8-inch frame) with relatively short arms (31 4/8″ long; 74 4/8″ wingspan). His spider chart, via MockDraftable.com:
That’s a tall, thin, not particularly long cornerback who doesn’t show much as a tackler. Even Williams himself noted that his tackling is an area to improve: “I’ve got to step that up and get it right and get the right technique.”
Given Matt Patricia’s love for physical defenders, that’s an issue. “I put a high priority on tackling just in general for our team,” Patricia said at the combine, “and I don’t think we can change that depending on whatever position it is, but you’ve got to find the right balance because obviously the biggest thing they’ve got to do is be able to cover in those situations.”
OK, so if Williams doesn’t fit the mold, what about DeAndre Baker? He only helped himself with his measurements (5-11, 193 pounds, 77 1/8″ wingspan), but even so he’s not overly long nor tall. Baker then ran 4.52 and 4.62 in the 40. Not killer marks given his physical game, but teams will ask if he can live outside or if he’s an NFL nickel. Teez Tabor ran a 4.62 two years ago.
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Byron Murphy? Same problems. He fell short of the 6-foot barrier (5-10 6/8″, 190) and had among the shorter arms of his entire position group (30 1/8″ long; 71 3/8″ wingspan). His best official 40: 4.55.
Expect to hear a lot more about guys like Michigan State’s Justin Layne and Penn State’s Amani Oruwariye cracking the top 3 at cornerback come draft day. For the Lions’ Round 1 purposes, though, Williams looks like the only CB prospect who might go that high and his game doesn’t necessarily fit.
4. Talked to an agent who represents multiple edge rushers in this class and asked him if he had any idea who the Lions were eyeing there.
“Everyone.”
I’m sure. Narrow it down at all?
“I honestly think they’re looking at, like, every single guy.”
Not super helpful on the whole, but it does offer a little idea into Detroit’s mindset. As expected, even with Okwara re-signed, Quinn will be searching high and low for edge-rush help this offseason.
5. Coming out of the Senior Bowl, Montez Sweat looked like a real option for Detroit at No. 8. And now, it’s possible he doesn’t even make it that far. His 40 (4.41) was downright stunning — remember, Greedy Williams is considered an elite athlete at cornerback and he ran 4.37; Sweat, at 6-5 3/4″ and 260 pounds almost matched him. Add that giddy-up to his physical presence, especially as a run defender, and the Lions will be on him.
Best quote I got all weekend, from a member of NFL circles on Sweat’s arm-length measurements (35 3/4″ with an 84 3/4″ wingspan): “He looks like he has fucking airplane wings.”
6. The Lions will draft a tight end and add a veteran via free agency/trade. At this point (and subject to change, as Detroit’s front office keeps things as locked down as any other organization), I don’t expect either Levine Toilolo or Luke Willson back. Keep an eye on Miami as a landing spot for Toilolo if he hits the market. That roster could use a reliable, veteran presence and ex-Lions assistant George Godsey now coaches the tight ends there.
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Quinn loves this incoming crop of rookies at the position, the underclassmen in particular. That does put both Fant and T.J. Hockenson on the table as potential picks at No. 8 or following a trade down — and it is nowhere near a lock that Hockenson is Detroit’s TE1. It also makes Irv Smith an option early on Day 2/late Day 1, with Jace Sternberger, Kaden Smith and others behind him.
Tyler Eifert remains a very likely target if the Lions go the free-agent route.
7. Don’t rule out a return of Matt Cassel as a contender for the backup QB job. The Lions loved what he brought to the locker room from a preparation standpoint last season. And that’s an element they could covet even more should they draft a rookie. They met with several prospects in this draft class, at least informally. Buffalo’s Tyree Jackson might be the most exciting of them all, beyond guys like Murray and Haskins. He’s a freaky size/athleticism player with a huge arm.
8. I can’t imagine anyone getting all that excited about this, but another veteran QB name to keep in mind: Austin Davis. He’s been in the league since 2012, has 10 career starts and — most importantly — spent 2017 playing in new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s Seattle scheme. The Lions won’t go through the summer with Connor Cook as the unquestioned No. 2 behind Matthew Stafford.
9. The Sun-Sentinel’s Omar Kelly reported that Trey Flowers will “get $14-$17 (million) on his next deal.” Conversations I’ve had lead me to believe he’ll get into the high end of that estimate, maybe even a little bit above. Minnesota’s Danielle Hunter signed a five-year, $72 million extension ($14.4 million per year) with $40 million in guarantees last offseason — that’s probably the basement for any Flowers contract.
Given how many teams will have cap space and how rarely a top pass rusher hits the market, I cannot envision any scenario in which Flowers has to settle. The guaranteed money very well could tip the scale. Khalil Mack received $60 million fully guaranteed from the Bears; mere mortals at DE/OLB have topped out in the $30 million-$40 million range. It would not surprise me one bit to see Flowers pull down five years and $90 million, with $50 million of that locked in on signing.
10. To answer your questions about John Ross or Justin Houston or anyone else of note who is rumored to be available via trade: Yes, the Lions will discuss him. Quinn is going to cast a wide net this offseason and won’t hesitate to go the trade route again should an opportunity arise.
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The Patriots long have tossed around draft picks in exchange for veterans with short-term contract commitments, then the Chiefs and Rams did the same last offseason. It’s a great way for teams to address needs without sacrificing their future salary caps.
11. The Lions would go the other way and unload Theo Riddick for a quality offer, but two things to keep in mind there:
- Quinn has made very, very clear that he believes the backfield needs several options, and Riddick is a trusted pass-catcher and blocker. Moving him would mean having to find a trustworthy replacement, not just taking a flier on some guy late in the draft.
- If a trade does happen, it probably will come either within the next week — before free agency opens — or on the actual weekend of the draft. The best chance to move Riddick might be after a few teams miss out on versatile prospects.
12. Metcalf might have pushed his way up Detroit’s board too. I still don’t think it is out of the question that the Lions draft an outside receiver to pair with Kenny Golladay and then look to unload Marvin Jones, but that would be a lot of moving pieces so I might be a year early on Jones speculation. The 2020 offseason is more realistic.
13. At least based on the combine, Quinn has not narrowed his focus to one specific point along the defensive line, even if edge is the clear need. Ed Oliver, an athletic DT, had a formal meeting with the Lions. So did Josh Allen, the high-upside edge. And Florida State’s Rakeem Christmas, a gap-plugging, run-stuffer, said that he talked to Detroit about playing big end.
14. Pay attention to the Lions’ local pro day about a month from now — the NFL permits teams an extra workout for prospects who played college ball nearby or list a hometown within a set radius. Graham Glasgow (Michigan) attended before being Detroit’s third-round pick in 2016, as did Pat O’Conner (Eastern Michigan) in 2017. Last year, Teo Redding (a Warren, Michigan, native) was there before Detroit signed him as a UDFA.
O’Conner’s former teammate, pass rusher Maxx Crosby, confirmed he will be among the participants this April. You can read more on his unique back story here.
(Top photo of Greedy Williams: Brian Spurlock / USA TODAY Sports)