Landing Antonio Brown would move Titans into a new era. Should they make the deal?

Back in January, every NFL team reporter at The Athletic was asked to assess whether his or her team would be interested in trading for Steelers enigma Antonio Brown. The options were “No Chance,” “A Chance” or “A Good Chance.”

I placed the Titans among the 11 teams in the “A Chance” column because of their critical need for a proven, productive vet in the receiver room. Though, in truth, I did nudge them close to the “No Chance” group by saying Brown didn’t really seem to be a cultural fit. I called the odds “microscopic.”

They’re not that minimal, I’d say we know now.

The ESPN report that surfaced Friday night — that Tennessee is one of three teams (along with Oakland and Washington) that has pushed for Brown — has me stepping back to consider if, just maybe, the Titans are changing.

Even the thought that they’d be open to something like this is capturing a lot of fans’ hearts. I’ve heard from several fans who seem giddy just to be part of this sweepstakes. It signals the possibility of an evolution in the franchise’s decision-making, which has been historically quite conservative.

Coach Mike Vrabel talked last week at the NFL Scouting Combine about getting out of “the middle.” You do that, in large part, by adding quality talent.

The Titans are an oft-forgotten franchise on the national landscape. We spend a lot of time talking about that, I feel like. But it’s a reality. Adding Brown (and theoretically more wins) would work to help continue a shift toward relevance. Tennessee has to “stack seasons.” And not just 9-7 seasons.

So, let’s break this down. To help me do that, I asked for some help from our boots on the ground in Pittsburgh, Steelers reporter Mark Kaboly.

Vrabel and Robinson are central to a “new Titans” concept — but don’t overlook Amy Adams Strunk in this

I mean, there’s a “new Nashville.” Why not a “new Titans?”

Think about it. The dang NFL Draft is going to be on Broadway next month. That would have seemed like a preposterous idea, what, three years ago? Five? 10? And yet now it makes perfect sense, because the city has changed. The NHL All-Star Game (2016), the Predators’ Stanley Cup Final appearance (2017) and the Titans jersey unveil (2018) opened doors for major downtown sporting spectacles.

Maybe the Titans are ready to change, too.

GM Jon Robinson noted just last week that owner Amy Adams Strunk was integral in both the jersey unveil event and landing the draft. We continue to see and hear bits and pieces about Strunk suggesting that she’s ready to move this franchise into a new era.

Amy isn’t Bud, and she continues to move away from the way this franchise operated for a long time.

Part of that was hiring Robinson — a young, first-time GM — in 2016. And then it was Robinson hiring Vrabel — a young, first-time head coach — a year ago.

Both guys are 43. This isn’t a fossilized version of an NFL franchise that some teams experience. These are younger, energetic individuals. Robinson watches practices from the field; Vrabel sometimes participates in said practices. They’re involved and engaged. They think and do things differently. So it was perhaps naive of me to consider the Titans’ interest in Brown the way that I did initially. Maybe we’re learning that was the “old Titans.”

Additionally, we know what organization built both Robinson and Vrabel. We’ve seen the Titans become “New England South” in a number of ways in the past couple of years, but adding someone like Brown would be an eye-popping move toward the types of risks that Bill Belichick has been willing to assume for years.

The Patriots’ sense is that their culture can override a potentially disruptive addition. Hell, look at just this past season. They rolled the dice midseason on Josh Gordon and got a bit of production out of him before he again ran afoul. And then the Pats still won the Super Bowl again.

If Robinson and Vrabel feel strongly enough about the culture they’ve built, this would be a really big, early test. They’re both two confident, strong-willed individuals who perhaps believe that they could provide an environment in which Brown would greatly help fix the team’s issues, not create new ones.

Separating fact and fiction with Brown and his attitude

Brown is who he is and that isn’t changing, according to Kaboly. Perhaps some of the issues have been exaggerated, but only slightly.

When Antonio Brown said he doesn’t have an ego. pic.twitter.com/GOfn222NnV

— Mark Kaboly (@MarkKaboly) March 2, 2019

On issues with Big Ben: “There were very limited issues with Roethlisberger up until late in the season and even then they were as simple as 7 being pissed that he ran a half-ass route during a walk-through. He made him do it again. AB walked out and wasn’t heard from again. Those two always talked glowingly of each other up until the end, even though we knew Ben was getting tired of hearing AB moan about not getting the ball.”

On last season’s unraveling: “I can give you a list of things he’s done this past year that would have you scratch your head: not showing for OTAs, leaving camp for a week to rehab himself, call a reporter a racist, threaten to beat up another, live off campus at training camp instead of the dorms, showing up late to meetings, yelling in Week 2 (!) at coaches on sidelines for not getting the ball, went AWOL the last week.”

On how the players feel about him: “He was a beloved guy in the locker room by many. Even after he went AWOL, players defended him and said they would welcome him back.”

Is that functional in the Titans locker room? How much would Brown getting a career reset help to calm him down?

What Vrabel said in Indy about Brown (or someone like him)

Vrabel was asked Wednesday morning about adding someone like Brown, a player with a bit of a checkered character record.

To be clear, he was speaking more generally, but the question did at least involve Brown’s name.

“There’s a lot of things that you can put up with, as a coach and a team, and there’s some things you can’t,” Vrabel said. “I think it’s important that, anytime you bring in somebody from outside the organization — whether that’s in free agency or you trade for a player — you just have to make sure that you know and are comfortable with what you’re getting.

“That’s the tough one. We spend a lot more time with these guys in the draft and the post-draft process than we do in free agency. You don’t know. You’re only watching the tape. Yeah, you can have them in for a visit. Sometimes these deals are done well before there’s some visit or some dinner or some handshake.”

Standing just to his right, I heard that as Vrabel not closing any doors. I guess he could have done that if he so chose. But he knew better. Vrabel and Robinson offered very few absolutes Wednesday, as is their way, and that included a question that involved Brown.

I think he did shine a light on the challenge of character evaluation in a trade, as opposed to a draft pick or even a free agent. But I imagine there are ways to do the necessary recon if you’re willing to make a potentially franchise-altering decision (good or bad).

They’ve done some due diligence if they’re in the running for Brown; believe that.

How would the money work? And what would Tennessee have to give up?

Financially, Brown’s current deal is doable for a team that has a little more than $40 million in cap space. It would require some accounting magic, but that’s life running a pro franchise; there’s always an element of gymnastics when it comes to book-balancing.

Here’s everything you need to know for IF the @AB84! How it affects the pic.twitter.com/lcGCgumII5

— Football …and other F words (@FWordsPod) March 2, 2019

The bigger issue is that Brown wants a reworked deal with a large signing bonus. Is that something the Titans can pull off? I’m honestly not sure. Maybe they aren’t, either.

As far as the initial acquisition, Robinson has engaged in some transactional wizardry in the past. Getting DeMarco Murray by moving down in the fourth round is still the gold standard for his time in Tennessee.

Kaboly told me he thinks the Steelers still believe they can and will get a team’s 2019 first-rounder for Brown. He suggested that perhaps it’d be something like a first- and fifth-rounder in exchange for Brown and a 2020 fourth-rounder.

It’s worth considering that the Titans, who pick 19th, are at a disadvantage compared to the Raiders, who have No. 4. So that means the Titans would likely have to add something like a third- or fourth-rounder, but I like Kaboly’s idea of getting a 2020 mid-round pick in return to help offset.

One other thing to consider is that Robinson is unlikely to give up too much in the 2019 draft since the Titans only had four picks in 2018 (and only three players made the roster). So perhaps he offers a 2020 mid-rounder instead of a 2019, to help preserve the bulk of this year’s picks.

Brown would almost certainly allow for a final verdict on Mariota

The Titans, if they’re being honest, still don’t know what to make of their quarterback. Marcus Mariota has missed enough time to make the long-term evaluation even more challenging, although there’s still time. Mariota is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and Tennessee could certainly franchise him in 2020 — just to extend their viewing window.

Another common thought, and a legitimate one, is that Mariota hasn’t been given enough help in protection and with pass-catchers.

Well, if Brown is infused for the 2019 and 2020 seasons, there is likely a more definitive take whether Mariota is the Titans’ franchise QB1 and worth a lucrative second contract.

One thought from Kaboly that struck me, however, is that Brown isn’t the best technical route-runner.

“There is a lot of read-and-react from Roethlisberger that turns into big plays,” Kaboly said. “I don’t know if another quarterback can do that. These two have been together for nine seasons.”

That’s a great point. Mariota obviously has the ability to extend plays, but he struggles with accuracy on the run. Can he develop ad-lib chemistry and feel with Brown?

You’ll recall a big preseason storyline was Mariota’s chemistry with Corey Davis entering Year 2, but they did seem to grow in that area. Brown’s talent — and Mariota’s athleticism — would seem to indicate this is more translatable than Kaboly thinks. But maybe there is a learning curve because of Brown’s innate familiarity with Big Ben.

We don’t know if the Arthur Smith offense would suit Brown — because we haven’t seen Arthur Smith’s offense

But if Smith’s offense is what he said it would be — akin to the installed Matt LaFleur system — then it is pretty favorable for a receiver.

Two things, in particular, would be potential hurdles to Brown asserting himself in the Tennessee offense:

1. There’s Mariota’s comfort level with an again-healthy Delanie Walker. Remember that Walker, before his injury last season, had amassed 452 targets (359 catches) in the previous four seasons with the Titans. In the three years in a Mariota-led offense, Walker had averaged 115.3 targets (77.7 catches).

I don’t know that favorite target status is something that just changes overnight, even with the addition of someone as dynamic as Brown. Mariota knows the throws and routes for Walker better than any for a receiver, one could strongly argue based on results. Maybe Brown does shift that immediately. Or maybe it becomes a potential issue.

2. Let’s presume that Derrick Henry’s emergence late last season will bleed over into 2019. Maybe there’s a concern for Brown that he’s heading toward a team that will lean more on Henry and its run game.

“Pay him and throw him the damn ball and you’ve got yourself an All-Pro,” Kaboly said. “Hand the ball to Henry 40 times a game, and there might be a problem even if that results in wins.”

But we know that Henry, even with a reputation as a high-volume type of back, hasn’t been given a consistently heavy workload to this point.

Even in the breakout to close 2018, he averaged 21.8 carries over the final four games. That still leaves plenty of passing downs. And that number is somewhat skewed by the Giants game — played in a driving, cold rain with gusty winds — in which Henry had 33 carries.

Henry has just three regular-season games with 20-plus carries. But two of those three came last December. I doubt that would become a problem, but it’s a thought for consideration.

For Brown, 30 is just a number

I’ve seen some concern from fans about Brown’s age. He’ll turn 31 before the 2019 season begins.

Kaboly, for one, thinks there’s plenty of fuel in Brown’s tank.

“You don’t have to worry about the player,” he said. “He works his ass off and (usually) doesn’t miss a practice. He was double-teamed in some capacity all year, and he still put up monster numbers.

“The narrative here was that AB was having down year — and then you see he had 100-1,300-15 (104 catches, 1,297 yards and 15 touchdowns) at the end of the year. … He’s not close to breaking down.”

Brown has three years left on his deal, so age doesn’t seem as if it’s a big concern.

Would Brown really want to play in a smaller market? Would the smaller market get Brown’s best?

I’m leaning on Kaboly here. I don’t know Brown’s mentality well enough to say whether Nashville would be suitable for a star like him.

“Size of the market and size of the stage doesn’t matter to him,” Kaboly said. “If he came to Nashville, it would just be a cheaper private jet to his mansion in Hollywood, Fla. Everything you might hear from the national people, don’t listen to. Antonio Brown cares about two things: money and stats.

“The issue in Pittsburgh has little to do with anything but money. He wants more and the only way he gets that is forcing a release (which won’t happen) or a trade. He wants another big signing bonus. All the other stuff is just noise to cover that up.

“So, if the Titans trade for him and give him another contract and throw him the ball 180 times a year regardless of the situation and he’s a perfect fit. But I can say that about Jacksonville, Los Angeles, Kansas City. Winning isn’t important to him, even though he says it is. Money and stats. Period.”

(Top photo of Brown: Chuck Cook / USA Today)