The ADP Report: Deep sleepers to target after pick 200

What is a growth stock? In fantasy baseball it is defined as player who has the ability to significantly out-earn their market cost. You are investing in a player or players who have indicated future potential based on a certain skill or criteria usually over a small sample. The lack of track record makes this investment risky, but you are betting on the come and paying what is perceived to be a depressed price point.

The difference between growth and value stocks is that growth stocks are based on expectations while value stocks are often underappreciated.

I constructed a chart from last year’s Average Draft Position database versus last month’s ADP to exhibit which players yielded substantial return on investment from pick 150 on last season and where the market values them in 2019.

NFBC 2018 MAIN EVENT ADP 150 – 300

Last season you could have assembled an all-star team of fantasy players post-pick 150. Everyone who owned Blake Snell and Miles Mikolas took a well-deserved victory lap in October. But if they truly believed Snell was winning the American League Cy Young award or Miles Mikolas would provide 18 wins with a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 200 innings pitched they would have never risked taking them at their 2018 ADP, but instead drafted them drastically higher than last year’s cost.

Who are the growth stocks that will reward fantasy owners this season? Everyone has their guys but let’s examine who the National Fantasy Baseball Championship players are targeting as growth stocks in 2019.

NFBC ADP ROUND 14:

Three players saw their stock surge in the month of February; they were Ryan Braun, Joe Musgrove and Kenta Maeda.

–Ryan Braun is constantly injured but consistently puts up seasons with about 20 homers and double-digit stolen bases. Another year older but the projection system forecasts more of the same.

–Joe “Mustgrove” is someone I own everywhere, and his ADP has continued to climb upward every month.

–Kenta Maeda pitches for the Dodgers and is always an arm of interest as is anyone who pitches for the team that calls Chavez Ravine home.

One player’s average draft position plummeted last month.

–Seranthony Dominguez tumbled down the draft board because fantasy players have anointed David Robertson as the Phillies closer. I think Dominguez closes out his share of games in Philadelphia.

NFBC ADP ROUND 15:

Two players basically gained a full round in ADP in one month — that is damn impressive:

–Alex Colome is being drafted as the White Sox closer, but Roster Resource has Kelvin Herrera as the guy to own in the South Side of Chicago.

–Tyler Skaggs was finally putting it all together last season until another injury derailed him, fortunately it wasn’t arm related.

ADP Alert: Nick Senzel is on the move and this ADP does not reflect that yet. Adjust accordingly if you want to be in the Nick Senzel business.

NFBC ADP ROUND 16:

The sweet sixteen saw significant shifts in average draft positions from multiple players.

–Domingo Santana had a monumental move and his gigantic gain should not be understated. Santana is year one removed from a season where he posted 30 homers and 15 steals. He’s penciled in as the Mariners starting leftfielder.

-Fantasy owners are reluctantly drafting Shane Greene in an attempt to acquire cheap saves. Possession is nine-tenths of the law.

–Collin McHugh is entrenched in the Astros rotation and that’s a helluva place to live.

–Asdrubal Cabrera signed with the Texas Rangers and fantasy owners took notice. Always an underrated asset.

–Max Kepler‘s skill set screams potential stud, but will it finally translate into his stats?

–Jose Martinez continues his free fall despite signing a contract extension. Martinez can rake at the plate but is a man without a position.

ADP Alert: Ross Stripling dropped almost a dozen spots. But if you have been paying attention, Clayton Kershaw is struggling to play to catch and the door is opening wider for Stripling to take his place in the rotation. Astute owners were already banking on an opportunity opening up for him.

NFBC ADP ROUND 17:

Pedro Strop jumped almost three rounds and is now a favorite among NFBC players who are willing to wait on saves. Brandon Morrow is talented but will not start the season and has pitched a total of 74.1 innings over the last two seasons.

Welington Castillo soared almost twenty places in ADP. Beef: it’s what’s for dinner (insert Sam Elliott voice).

Forrest Whitley’s fall is a good thing. He will not be on the opening day roster in Houston but if you are like me and betting Whitley outpitches his projected workload, then giddy up!

Drew Steckenrider’s stock soared (as his ADP plummeted) once Sergio Romo signed with the Marlins.

NFBC ADP ROUND 18:

Jake Lamb is moving on up, but I would rather buy Maikel Franco in this round.

Brandon Morrow, see Pedro Strop notes.

Kyle Tucker’s ADP tumbled and we must thank the players who are driving down his price because they are doing God’s work. Stash and cash.

NFBC ADP ROUND 19:

Hunter Strickland is the captain obvious move here. He signed with Seattle and while they stated, “there may not be a set closer on a particular night,” Strickland should be the favorite to close out the majority of games for the Mariners.

Matt Barnes versus Ryan Brasier? Barnes is running away with it according to this data. For me it is much closer, and honestly, I am still not sure at this late stage. I’d throw a target at one — the cheaper one of course.

Cedric Mullins is the guy not named Jonathan Villar who should be on your fantasy radar in Baltimore.

Corbin Burnes impressed last season in Milwaukee’s bullpen, but his future is in their rotation and that future is sooner rather than later.

Manuel Margot’s free fall has been going on for what seems like months now. The Padres have plenty of options in their outfield, but I am willing to place a bet on Margot winning the center field job and improving on his intriguing skill set this season.

Matt Modica’s post-200 ADP Growth All-Stars for 2019:

C: Danny Jansen

C: Jorge Alfaro

1B: Josh Bell

2B: Nick Senzel

SS: Ketel Marte

3B: Miguel Sano

CI: Pete Alsonso

MI: Willy Adames

OF: Jesse Winker

OF: Max Kepler

OF: Randal Grichuk

OF: Domingo Santana

OF: Kyle Tucker

UT: Franmil Reyes

SP: Joe Musgrove

SP: Kenta Maeda

SP: Ross Stripling

SP: Collin McHugh

SP: Steven Matz

SP: Jesus Luzardo

SP: Forrest Whitley

RP: Pedro Strop

RP: Trevor May

I have covered three different aspects of the draft over the last three weeks. This series will return next week with a different approach. What that is I’m not sure yet, but it will informative.

(Top photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)