There’s time for Chris Davis to turn things around, but not that much time

During Orioles spring training, there have been a few persistent themes. Change is one, with a new general manager, coaching staff, lots of new faces and a much more open attitude when it comes to analytics and technology. Another is youth, as some of the O’s top prospects, like Yusniel Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and more, are getting more attention and are close to earning major-league playing time.

There’s also the amount of competition on the roster, which manager Brandon Hyde and O’s players seem to welcome and discuss daily. Positions all around the diamond are up for grabs, including catcher, shortstop, right field, maybe third base, bench spots, a couple of rotation slots and a handful of reliever openings. Predicting the Opening Day roster at this point would be an impossible task.

Nothing about the Orioles’ current collection of players screams good or even average baseball, and in that way, the team is like the one that ended 2018. But change, youth and competition — those things provide some room for future optimism, along with a bit of excitement about which players can improve in 2019 and how many prospects will make their debuts and earn consistent playing time.

And then … there’s Chris Davis, who’s not young (he’s about to turn 33), has a guaranteed contract through 2022 (and a boatload of deferred money coming his way after that) and seems to be assured of finding his name in the lineup regularly when the season starts. Out of necessity and desperation after completing one of the worst major-league seasons of all time — with a .168/.243/.296 batting line, 46 wRC+ and -3.1 fWAR — Davis has been less resistant to change. He switched up his offseason workouts, focusing on “flexibility, range of motion (and) strengthening all those little muscles that we hate to work out.” The early relationship between Davis and new O’s hitting coach Don Long seems positive. Davis also talked about adjusting his hitting approach and shortening his swing.

Perhaps it’s mostly talk, in the same way that almost anything seems possible before the season begins. Davis has discussed the need to change in the past, like being more open to bunting to beat the shift. Bunting isn’t as easy as it looks and it probably wouldn’t help him all that much, but Davis never followed through. Being stubborn isn’t a good look when you’re batting .168.

Speaking of the shift, Davis has never really gotten over how infielders flood the right side of the field against him. The shift certainly hasn’t helped him, but it alone doesn’t explain why his wOBA, expected wOBA, average exit velocity and barrel percentage have dropped each year since 2015 (when Statcast data first became available). Not only has Davis been squaring up the ball less and less, but he’s also still striking out a bunch (nearly 37 percent of the time last season), while his walk percentage fell to just under 8 percent.

Considering his downward spiral, Davis has more reason than ever to try new things and listen to voices that maybe he would have ignored before. But if there isn’t enough pressure on him already, Mountcastle getting looks at first base in spring training is another. Mountcastle’s bat is arguably major-league ready right now, and that could mean a summer arrival (or sooner) and the need for regular at-bats. Some of that time could come at designated hitter, but the O’s surely aren’t ready to pigeonhole Mountcastle as a DH.

The glut of 1B/DH types on the O’s roster over the years has been well documented. Looking at the current roster, Davis is a first baseman or DH. So is Mark Trumbo. The same goes for Trey Mancini, who’s been blocked at first base and DH and forced into playing a subpar left field. And Mountcastle is on the way.

ZiPS, PECOTA and Steamer all project Davis to finish with a negative WAR next season. ZiPS (83) and Steamer (89) each have Davis putting up a wRC+ under 90. If this is the new normal for Davis, what happens if he continues to struggle in 2019? An extended trip to the bench could be one option, but the O’s already went that route last year and it didn’t work. It’s not fun to think about — the O’s have typically been at their best when Davis mashes — but no one would be surprised if that player no longer exists.

In the meantime, maybe Davis’ offseason work and new coaching instruction will pay off. But if Davis is anything close to the 2018 version, he should stop finding his name in the lineup. The O’s are in looking-ahead mode, and Davis can’t realistically be part of the team’s long-term plans to return to relevancy. Mountcastle, meanwhile, certainly is. Mancini might be as well, or he could become a trade chip. Having Mountcastle and Mancini split the work at first base and DH could quickly become a much better option than running Davis out there every day.

There’s not much urgency for a team projected to lose over 100 games to do much of anything, but at some point, Davis’ remaining salary won’t be an excuse to keep him on the field anymore if he’s borderline unplayable. The future has yet to arrive in Baltimore, but it could soon be time to move on from the past.

(Top photo of Chris Davis: Jonathan Dyer / USA Today Sports)