WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – This could very well be Carsen Edwards’ last run. Not that the college basketball season is over for No. 14 and Big Ten-leading Purdue or its high-scoring junior guard. There are still two regular-season games remaining, likely a few more games in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago and then an NCAA Tournament run.
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But if this isn’t the end of the road, it’s time to start wondering long and hard: Is this it for Edwards, who has been mentioned as a potential second-round pick in various mock drafts? Sam Vecenie of The Athletic has the dynamic, explosive guard being selected No. 41 in his latest NBA Draft Big Board.
Here is how he is viewed by at least one NBA executive with whom I spoke late Saturday afternoon after Purdue’s utter demolition of Ohio State, 86-51, leapfrogged the Boilermakers into first place in the conference.
“He’s one of the best scorers (23.5 points per game) in the country,’’ the executive said. “At his size (6-foot-1), it would be ideal if he was more of a balanced decision-maker with the ball, but at this point, he is really a scorer. With a big point guard next to him he could play off the ball. I would think he’s a second-round pick with the potential to be an off the bench scorer down the line. He could really help himself by developing more playmaking skills.
“I would think that he would improve his chance of having a long-term NBA career if he stayed at Purdue for another season.’’
But will he do that?
The first thing to understand, Edwards is not terribly forthcoming with the media. Why that is, only he truly knows, but he’s certainly not unique in that sense. And yet, here is what happened Saturday when he was asked if it crossed his mind Saturday that the senior day victory over Ohio State might be the last game the junior from Texas plays at Mackey Arena. The Boilers’ last two games are on the road (Minnesota and Northwestern) and then comes the postseason.
Edwards didn’t say much, but that smile, that wry, knowing, conspiratorial smile, it said a whole lot – a whole lot more, certainly, that Edwards usually says or said Saturday.
That smile said, in essence, “I anticipated this question. Yes, it’s crossed my mind. Of course it has.’’
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Naturally, we’re mind reading here. This is what Edwards said, not with his smile, but with his voice.
“I don’t know, man,’’ he said. “All I know if I’ve got two more (regular-season) games and then the tournaments. I’m just proud of my seniors, who’ve done so much for this program. I was happy to send them out on a good note.’’
Let’s just say, you had to be there.
The question, though, is how much longer will he be here, in West Lafayette, after a glorious season that has not only seen him established as the conference’s leading scorer, but it finds Purdue in a spot where one more victory in the last two games will cement at least a tie for the Big Ten title and two victories will mean an outright title.
Right now, he is the most important player on the conference’s best team, and while it’s no surprise that he’s Purdue’s best player – he was all-Big Ten last year as a sophomore and the preseason conference player of the year candidate – it’s a shock that Purdue controls its own destiny after a 6-5 stumble to start the season.
When Purdue lost to Notre Dame in the Crossroads Classic on Dec. 15 to fall to that mark, it was reasonable to suggest that Purdue was the worst of the four teams at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana, Notre Dame and Butler all appeared to be headed to greater heights than Purdue, which looked like a one-man team that could only go as far as the virtuoso Edwards took them.
As the season wore on, though, one pleasant surprise emerged after another. Matt Haarms went to the bench and then returned to the starting lineup as a changed player. Grady Eifert, one of the seniors who was feted Saturday, established himself as the glue to the entire effort. Ryan Cline, another senior, picked up his offensive game, not to mention his all-around floor game. Trevion Williams came on as a low-post presence. Nojel Eastern, the oversized point guard, established himself as one of the top defensive stoppers in the league. Aaron Wheeler and Eric Hunter came along. And the list goes on and on.
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Earlier this season, you would have looked at Purdue and said, “They’ll only go as far as Edwards takes them.’’ While there’s something to that, and guard play is hugely important in the NCAA Tournament, this is no longer a team that is fully reliant on Edwards to carry them offensively. They are 16-5 when he scores 20 or more points, which sounds meaningful, but understand, the Boilers are 22-7, so they’re 6-2 when Edwards doesn’t score 20. They are 8-2 when he makes four or more 3-point shots, but they’re 14-5 when he doesn’t light it up from beyond the arc.
The one area NBA people want Edwards to develop – and it’s an area where Purdue coach Matt Painter wants him to grow, too – is as a facilitator. They told him that at the NBA combine one year ago and they’re still telling him that.
Edwards came into this season as a high-volume shooter, which is a polite way to say “gunner.’’ He is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body, and while Eastern handles most of the point guard duties while Edwards plays off the ball, his coaches and NBA people have been impressed with the way he’s grown his all-around floor game. He’s not exactly John Stockton; he will always be a score-first player, but he’s learning how to make those around him better players.
“It comes and goes for him because people will handle him differently,’’ Painter said. “They’ll run people at him, they’ll double-team him, they’ll jump off the top, they’ll trap him off ball screens. For him, it’s all about reads. You can’t go in and say I’ll handle the Nebraska game the way you handled the Ohio State game or the Michigan State game because all those teams will guard you differently. You take what the defense gives you and play off it.
“When he moves the basketball and he gets two people on the ball and he gets it out of his hands quick, he really puts people in a bind. They’re just trying to suffocate him. … When he’s at his best, he’s aggressive, he’s getting to the free-throw line, getting layups to go along with those threes and the pull-ups. He has a nice diet of shots.’’
Confession time: When Purdue was 6-5, I thought it was doomed to finish in the middle of the Big Ten, at best. I was wrong. When it started stacking some wins, I thought it was a team that would make the NCAA Tournament but wouldn’t make it beyond the first weekend. I will probably be wrong. This team has taken an explosive device to every expectation imaginable.
The postseason? Look at teams that make noise, they finish among the top in the nation in offensive efficiency. Through Saturday, Purdue is fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency according to kenpom.com. That’s worth noting because eight of the last 11 national champions have finished in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive top five.
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One year after losing four starters from a Sweet 16 team – and one that might have gone even deeper if Isaac Haas hadn’t injured his elbow – the Boilers are one of the best stories in college basketball. The Boilers won 15 Big Ten games for the eighth time in school history – they’re just the fifth program in league history to do it in back-to-back seasons – and went undefeated at home for the third time ever. This is with a team that includes starters such as Cline, who started just nine games before his senior season, and Eifert, who was a walk-on before earning a scholarship later in his career.
It was a very odd moment during introductions at Mackey Arena on Saturday when word began to spread that IU – the hated Hoosiers – had knocked off Michigan State at Assembly Hall, opening the door to an outright title run by Purdue. Talk about conflicted: Some fans applauded the news. Others groaned. Seriously, IU could play the axis of evil in a round-robin tournament, and Purdue fans would root for the Hoosiers’ opponent, no matter how lamentable.
As usual, during the game, fans broke out the “IU sucks!’’ chant, which Painter and several alumni have increasingly found to be tiresome and troublesome, not to mention what Purdue stands for.
As Painter pointed out during senior day activities, “Today, IU didn’t suck and they beat Michigan State.’’ Then he mildly castigated students – you can do that when you’re winning – for complaining about the “(Bleep) you, Haarms’’ chants that cascaded down from the Assembly Hall rafters in Bloomington recently.
“What happened to Matt Haarms in Bloomington wasn’t right,’’ Painter told the crowd. “But we’ve got to clean up our own backyard and give up the, ‘IU sucks’ chant. ’’
Most of the crowd cheered. The students in the Paint Crew … not quite as supportive of the notion.
Painter continued later, “As a Purdue fan, we saw a lot of pushback when they (IU fans) said the things about Matt. And you know, Purdue needs to take care of Purdue and Indiana needs to take care of Indiana. …
“From an institutional standpoint, we can’t sit here and be upset at them. … We can’t be upset at them for saying those things, even though they were wrong, because we’re wrong. Now, if I was 20 years old, I’d be chanting it too, but I’m 48 now and look at things differently. We have a really classy place at Purdue but they think that’s cute. There’s nothing cute about it.’’
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Of course, he’s right.
Not that we’re clutching pearls here, but rivalries are great fun. But is it really necessary to reference IU’s state of existence when you’re playing Rutgers or Illinois? Does that make sense? Why acknowledge that IU is the big brother in this state or that they’ve rented room in your head? How many astronauts have matriculated in Bloomington?
A year from now, there’s a chance Edwards won’t be hearing the “IU sucks’’ chant, not because the fans listened to Painter but because he’s plying his trade in the NBA. It’s not a sure thing that he’s a goner, not in the way it’s a fait accompli for IU’s Romeo Langford, but it’s a distinct possibility. Just be aware. Enjoy him while you can.
(Top photo of Edwards: Tommy Gilligan / USA Today Sports)