There’s no retaliation pressure for the Nationals, no need to do something just because Bryce Harper officially became a member of the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend. The Nationals’ interest in closer Craig Kimbrel, first reported by The Athletic on Saturday, is sincere. They haven’t closed off the possibility of making another big move, in an already-busy winter in which they traded for All-Star catcher Yan Gomes and committed $189.3 million in free agency money.
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Still, they are approaching signing Kimbrel — who appears to be the next big name to sign — with caution. It is three-and-a-half weeks before Opening Day. They have the ability to potentially offer a longer deal than the Braves and Phillies — both of whom are reportedly interested in the closer on short contracts — but there would be serious potential ramifications, both with the luxury tax by bringing in a pitcher this late and in what it could mean for extending third baseman Anthony Rendon.
“Every player that we acquire that we bring into the clubhouse they have to certainly fit into the dynamic of the clubhouse,” general manager Mike Rizzo said on Saturday. “We go to painstaking routes to make sure that we know the backgrounds of these players and what makes them tick and their personalities and that type of thing and make a decision based on those things. The fit in the clubhouse is very important.”
Kimbrel, who went 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 42 saves for the World Series champion Red Sox, would be an interesting addition. The righty — who will turn 31 in May — would presumably bump current closer Sean Doolittle into a setup role, along with new National Trevor Rosenthal, who has experience closing as well.
If you watched Rosenthal throw last week, hitting 100 mph on the stadium gun in his first appearance since 2017, you’d feel pretty good about about that signing. In fact, the trio of Rosenthal, fellow new addition Kyle Barraclough and Doolittle combining to not allow a hit or a walk in three innings in their respective spring debuts was a welcome sight.
Rosenthal, who the Nationals signed quickly after he wowed scouts last fall, has been champing at the bit since the first day of camp. The ball seemingly jumps out of his hand, his live batting practice session earlier this spring drawing plenty of impressed onlookers.
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Still, Rosenthal is coming off Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of last year. Doolittle missed two months due to a left foot injury.
Barraclough, who has some closing experiencing with Miami, can be a promising addition if he’s able to improve command. Manager Davey Martinez said earlier this spring that, in a perfect world, Barraclough would take the seventh, followed by Rosenthal and Doolittle. A Kimbrel signing would push Barraclough back into the middle innings, where the Nationals are thinnest.
Already this spring, Koda Glover has been sidelined with a forearm strain and Justin Miller, competing for a spot, is dealing with a sore back. These seem to be minor issues, of course. But it’s a reminder that — for all of the Nationals’ upgrades this winter — their bullpen depth remains a concern.
If it wasn’t, they wouldn’t even be discussing Kimbrel, who posted a 2.3 WAR last year and would help them keep pace with a Phillies team now predicted — depending on which online odds system you use — to be even or slightly in front of the Nationals as early divisional favorites. No matter how you look at it, the National League East — with the reining champion Braves and new-look Mets — is set up to be fascinating.
“This NL East is going to be a heck of a battle with these other teams improving, going out there and being aggressive,” Nationals ace Max Scherzer said earlier this spring. “This is going to be fun. This is going to be probably the stiffest competition in my career for the division race.”
And that was before the Phillies went out and signed Harper to a record 13-year, $330 million deal.
On-field fit aside, there are luxury tax implications in the Nationals’ pursuit of Kimbrel, as my colleague, Ken Rosenthal, noted over the weekend.
Right now, the Nationals’ luxury-tax payroll is $201.47 million, according to rosteresource.com, which puts them about $4.5 million under the first $206 million threshold. Kimbrel — who has reportedly come down some from his camp’s initial ask of six years, $100 million — would still push them over. Because it would be their third straight season over the threshold, the Nats would be required to pay a 50 percent penalty for every dollar they spend (up to $226 million) and more if their payroll goes higher.
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The Nationals would also lose their third- and sixth-round draft picks for the signing and going over the luxury tax, a notable concession because they already forfeited their second- and fifth-rounders (along with $1 million in international draft space) for inking starter Patrick Corbin earlier this winter.
Undoubtedly, the team’s rotation has improved on paper from a year ago. But they rarely let Jeremy Hellickson go a third time through the order. Aníbal Sánchez is coming off a career season but averaged under six innings a start in 24 games last year. And there seems to always be a concern about the durability of Stephen Strasburg, making the middle innings of utmost importance for a D.C. club in win-now mode.
Martinez, who drew criticism for his bullpen usage at times last year, has vowed to manage it better, and to put guys in better spots to succeed. Adding a reliever like Kimbrel, with five 40-plus save seasons under his belt, would certainly make that job easier.
But at what long-term cost? Draft picks and luxury tax concessions aside, another long-term deal could have ramifications on the organization’s ability to lock up Rendon to an extension.
Rendon will be a free agent at the end of the year. Nolan Arenado cashing in big in Colorado last week — with an eight-year, $260 million extension — would make Rendon the top third baseman available next winter. That alone will make it tougher for the Nats to retain the Scott Boras client. The two sides had shared optimism about getting a deal done. But that was before Arenado came off the market, opening up even more suitors should Rendon decide to explore free agency.
A proven reliable closer like Kimbrel would make the Nationals better this year, for sure. Whether it is worth the cost remains to be seen.
(Top photo of Kimbrel: Gary A. Vasquez / USA TODAY Sports)