The Athletic's NBA Power Rankings: I've got a question edition

Welcome​​ to The​​ Athletic’s​​ NBA Power Rankings.​​ Every week,​​ we ask​​ all of​​ our​​ NBA writers to​​ rank​​ the​​ teams​​ from​​ 1-30.​​ Here​​​​ are the collective results after the first 20 weeks of the 2018-19 season.

As we get down to the grittiest parts of the NBA season, I’m left with questions about every single team in the NBA. No, I don’t mean the grittiest parts in the same sense of talking about Matthew Dellavedova or TJ McConnell. I’m talking about these final 18-20 games in which teams are trying to solidify their identity for the rest of the season. For some teams, that’s going to mean focusing on young players who shape the future of the franchise. For other teams, it’ll mean a panic-inducing mad dash for the playoffs and best seeding position possible.

Regardless of their situation, each team has at least one pressing question. In this week’s Power Rankings, I try to pinpoint exactly what that question could and should be. Some of it has to do with injuries and tanking. Some of it has to do with balancing resting stars and fighting for top seeding. Some of it has to do with a charade of an initiative from on high to play Anthony Davis on a minutes restriction instead of just being allowed to tell him to go home.

Either way, we’ll dive into each team and their big question(s) moving forward.

Just a reminder to the reader that weekly rankings get submitted by each writer by 3 p.m. ET on Saturdays. That means we occasionally get games on Saturday night and Sunday that make the rankings look a little off. The possible games that screwed it all up this week:

• Orlando taking down Indiana 117-112 on Saturday
• Miami destroying Brooklyn 117-88 on Saturday
• San Antonio beating Oklahoma City 116-102 on Saturday
• New Orleans knocking off Denver 120-112 on Saturday
• Phoenix upsetting the Lakers 118-109 on Saturday
• Utah winning at home against Milwaukee 115-111 on Saturday
• Rockets dissect the Celtics 115-104 on Sunday
• Cavs surprise the Magic 107-93 on Sunday
• Pistons outlast the Raptors 112-107 in overtime on Sunday

The latest power rankings start now.

30. Phoenix Suns (Previously 30th), 13-51 (-9.3 net rating)

Question: How do the Phoenix Suns get Josh Jackson going again?

As we get to the end of Jackson’s second year in the NBA, it doesn’t seem like we’ve witnessed much growth from his rookie season. He’s replicating a lot of the same mostly mediocre numbers from his rookie season. His playmaking for others has increased a bit, but so has his turnover rate. Everything else just feels like we’re not seeing progress from his first to second season. Progress and development aren’t always linear movements, but the stagnation of Jackson’s first two years is a bit disconcerting. Recently, Jackson had a little flurry of good action. Jackson had a six-game stretch in which he started scoring a lot more efficiently.

During that stretch, Jackson averaged 21.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. He did it with 49.5/36.4/64.3 shooting splits. I don’t think it’s reasonable to just expect Jackson to be a 20-point scorer every night, but this type of production was a breath of fresh air. It reminded me of a flurry he had from late January to early March of last season when he put up 18.1 points and 6.6 rebounds while making 46.6 percent of his shots over a 14-game span. He also finished the season scoring 21.8 points per game over his final 12 games. How do the Suns get back to this kind of production?

The big key during this six-game run by Jackson was he knocked down spot-up jumpers and he was highly efficient in transition. They didn’t really just give him the ball and tell him to go be somebody. When he did run spot pick-and-roll possessions, he scored more efficiently than he normally does. But sometimes it just comes down to Jackson needing to knock down shots to find a rhythm and have that rhythm lead him to confidence. That should be a focus for the Suns the rest of the way so he’s ready heading into his third season.

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29. New York Knicks (Previously 29th), 13-50 (-7.9 net rating)

Question: How fun is Mitchell Robinson?

The answer is very. I could end it there and New York Knicks fans would nod in agreement and head back to Tankathon.com to keep simulating lottery scenarios. Instead, let’s dig a bit deeper into this rookie big man who keeps attacking shots left and right. Robinson has some crazy numbers for a rookie blocking shots. He’s averaging 2.3 blocks per game despite playing just 18.6 minutes per night. That puts him third behind Myles Turner (2.8) and Anthony Davis (2.5). Turner is the starting center for the Indiana Pacers and Davis used to play significant minutes for the New Orleans Pelicans. Only those two block more shots per game. But if you get into the block percentage of Robinson, things get really crazy.

Of rookies who have played at least 800 minutes in their first season, Robinson has the second highest block rate (percentage of shots blocked when a player is on the floor) in NBA history. Manute Bol, as a rookie, blocked 10.8 percent of the shots on the floor. Robinson clocks in at 10.4 percent. They’re the only rookies (minimum 800 minutes) in NBA history to clear 10 percent for a block rate. Over his last 18 games, Robinson has played 20.7 minutes and blocked 3.0 shots per game. His block percentage during that stretch? A ridiculous 12.9 percent. Nobody has ever cleared 10.81 percent on block rate in any season in NBA history, regardless of playing experience.

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28. Cleveland Cavaliers (previously 28th), 16-48 (-10.1 net rating)

Question: How is the Marquese Chriss experience going?

Do you remember Marquese Chriss? You may remember him from such transactions like the eighth overall pick, 2016 NBA Draft, or traded to the Houston Rockets this past year as Daryl Morey got Ryan Anderson’s contract off the books. Now he’s on the Cleveland Cavaliers after being a part of the Brandon Knight-Iman Shumpert-Alec Burks deal on trade deadline day. He wasn’t any good in Phoenix despite a couple of moments, and he was absolutely unplayable during a few opportunities in Houston this season. But now that he’s on Cleveland, Chriss has the opportunity to start reclaiming his career. Through nine games, he’s been statistically more productive than his previous two stops. It isn’t anything crazy, but he’s putting up 9.3 points and 5.1 rebounds in 19.1 minutes per game.

A lot of those numbers have been boosted by him scoring 23 points, 13 points, and 14 points in three of his first four games with Cleveland. In the most recent five games, Chriss looks like he’s back to Phoenix mediocrity or even approaching Houston irrelevance. He’s scored 27 points total in those five games, made just 24.1 percent of his shots, and played 15 minutes per night. A lot of Chriss’ problems in the NBA so far seem to be awareness. He hasn’t had a great opportunity to acquire experience on the court because he’s not quite good or savvy enough to warrant it. However, he needs the experience in order to slow the game down and get savvier. It’s a real catch-22 for him, but maybe the Cavs will have the patience to let him figure it out.

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27. Chicago Bulls (Previously 27th), 18-46 (-7.5 net rating)

Question: How did Lauri Markkanen start going off?

Chicago Bulls big man Lauri Markkanen missed the first 23 games of the season with an elbow injury. It delayed the start of his second season and caused him to need a few games until he got truly comfortable on the court. In his first 21 games back from the elbow injury, Markkanen played solidly. He put up 16.5 points and 6.9 rebounds with 43.0/36.9/83.0 shooting splits. It looked like a nice second season was going to happen after all and we could see some solid progression from Markkanen. Over the last 20 games though, he has taken his game to another level. He’s increased his production to 22.9 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 44.7/38.5/89.0 shooting splits. His usage has increased from 23.7 percent to 25.1 percent over these splits. So it’s not a monster increase. Then why the jump in production?

Markkanen started becoming a complete monster in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop situations. He went from putting up 110.2 points per 100 possessions in the PnR to 138.0 points per 100 possessions. He stopped floating to the perimeter in transition opportunities and started running the lane hard to get buckets at the rim. Markkanen went from being a bad option in the post (79.1 per 100 possessions) to being elite (102.6 per 100 possessions). Whatever has clicked for Markkanen has been a revelation for him in mid-season. He keeps putting up big numbers on a bad team, but these numbers mostly feel legitimate because of how he’s getting them. It’s a pretty exciting development in yet another frustrating Bulls season.

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26.  Memphis Grizzlies (Previously 26th), 25-40 (-2.4 net rating)

Question: Will we get to see Jaren Jackson Jr. in a prime role again this season?

First and foremost, Grizzlies star rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. is out “indefinitely” with quad soreness. There are some thoughts that he’s going to miss the remainder of the regular season with a deep thigh bruise. Some would say they’re just being cautious with a young big man they hope to have for two decades patrolling the paint and the perimeter of the FedExForum in Memphis. Personally, I have a more cynical view of things in that the Grizzlies keep their pick if it lands in the top 8 of the draft. They currently hold the sixth-worst record in the NBA, four wins ahead/behind (depending on how you want to view it) of the ninth worst record in the NBA. As of right now, it looks pretty safe that they’d keep the pick, unless some true chicanery happened with the lotto odds from the better teams.

I don’t really see why the Grizzlies believe Jackson would play them out of that bottom 8 if he comes back this season. Maybe the injury really is that bad, but rookies rarely contribute a bunch of wins to any team’s record. Considering the Grizzlies are actually better (-1.0 per 100 possessions) without their rookie rather than with (-1.9) Jackson, I’m not sure they have to truly worry about this. I’d rather see him continue to grow and develop in this rookie season. There are times he looks like a gift from the heavens. Let him play and you’ll still lose while getting him much needed experience.

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25. Atlanta Hawks (Previously 25th), 22-42 (-6.2 net rating)

Question: What about that other rookie guard for the Atlanta Hawks?

We all know Trae Young is killing it right now. He’s on such a tear that we might be close to a point of reopening the Rookie of the Year race. But he has a backcourt mate who is also a rookie, and he’s someone the Hawks really believe in moving forward. For the most part, Kevin Huerter has been starting for the Hawks since early December. Going into his NBA career, everybody knew Huerter could shoot the ball. He hit 39.4 percent of his 3-pointers at Maryland. The longer distance doesn’t bother him in the NBA with him hitting 39.0 percent on 4.5 attempts per game this season. Where Huerter is at his most impressive shooting the ball is from the corner. He’s knocked down 48.6 percent of his deep balls from the corner.

The Hawks are trying to cultivate some more playmaking out of Huerter, who does occasionally drop a dime or two. For the most part, his game off the bounce revolves around him shooting a jumper. He has a 55.8 percent effective field goal off the dribble, mostly because he doesn’t mind letting a defender fly by as he takes a side-step dribble and pulls it. Huerter’s 9.3 points per game won’t blow you away, but he’s spacing the floor nicely for Lloyd Pierce. He just needs to get comfortable attacking the basket against aggressive closeouts. Because everybody knows he can and will let it fly. Now he has to adjust to their scouting report on him.

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24. Washington Wizards (Previously 24th), 26-37 (-2.7 net rating)

Question: Will this be the week I finally get back to talking about the Washington Wizards since they’re in the playoff mix?

One of the better modern tricks being done for social media right now is to have a blanket or tarp of some kind that you hold up. You spread the tarp/blanket nice and wide. The gag is to throw the tarp into the air in a way that covers pretty much the entire shot of the camera. Then you run behind a corner or through a doorway by the time the blanket/tarp falls to the ground. All of a sudden, it appears as if you’ve disappeared completely. You can find compilations of people doing this trick in doorways to dogs, confusing man’s best friend into thinking the owner has been sent to an alternate universe.

One infamous viral video of the past has a man outside of his home with a big tarp. He’s going to toss this tarp into the air and then sneak through the side door of the home. As he’s getting ready to do this, his child in the background walks inside the house through that very door. Being a good kid who doesn’t want to get yelled at by a parent, they shut the door behind them, as not to let all of the heat out or many of the flies inside. Unfortunately for this aspiring magician, he doesn’t notice the closed door. The tarp goes in the air, and he runs directly into the closed door.

Turns out this man was not the Kool-Air Man.

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23. New Orleans Pelicans (Previously 23rd), 29-36 (+0.8 net rating)

Question: Will Adam Silver finally bring an end to this charade?

At the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT, Adam Silver addressed the ridiculousness of the Anthony Davis minutes situation. The New Orleans Pelicans playing him on a minutes restriction and then never playing in the fourth quarter has become a farce. Silver said the way the Pelicans are playing Davis is not a good solution to the issue at hand, but also said there are no easy solutions.

“Some things don’t lend themselves to easy solutions,” Silver said. “Playing him for three quarters and resting him in the fourth is not a good solution. Maybe we’ll get to a different place.”

The easiest of solutions is to not make the Pelicans play Davis. I keep hammering this, as do many others, but the risk of injuring him and further compromising a trade situation isn’t worth it. It’s not worth making sure these final 17 games for the Pelicans have a star presence in them. Alvin Gentry is doing the right thing, in my opinion. Make him play? Fine. But the Pelicans keeping him from fourth quarter minutes gets to highlight how absurd this mandate/suggestion from the league office is.

I just don’t know if the league will admit their decision for him playing isn’t the correct one. I don’t know if they’re just waiting for a rolled ankle or a bruised quadricep in order to sit him for the rest of the season. Or if the league will still want him to play after that heals. Regardless, this charade has to end. It’s benefitting nobody and it’s just making the already absurd situation even more laughable.

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22. Dallas Mavericks (Previously 21st), 27-35 (-1.2 net rating)

Question: Do the Dallas Mavericks actually need another guy with the ball in his hands?

The Dennis Smith Jr. and Luka Doncic pairing didn’t even last a full season. Doncic was quickly anointed the golden child in Dallas, and the Mavericks started treating him as such. Smith wasn’t getting that same freedom in any way. Eventually, the two sides split amicably and now Smith gets a chance to help revive the Knicks. The Mavs still have a similar roster problem now that they did before they dealt Smith away. As great as Doncic has been as a rookie, he needs help initiating the offense. The Mavs can’t just burn him out and hope he can handle the workload of James Harden in the future.

While Smith may not have been the fit the Mavs were comfortable with, the team still needs a very good secondary ball handler. We know Doncic can hit that fun step-back 3-pointer, but his greatest accuracy comes off the catch. In catch-and-shoot opportunities, Doncic has made 38.7 percent of his 3-pointers this season. That number drops to 33.6 percent when he’s shooting them off the dribble. Doncic can still be the main guy on offense and the primary initiator, but he needs some help carrying that load. Only 29.1 percent of his 3-pointers come off the catch. Moving Kristaps Porzingis into the mix will obviously help. He’s willing to move the ball to teammates. But a secondary guard who can attack sounds like the correct plan. Luka doesn’t have to do everything for himself.

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21. Miami Heat (Previously 20th), 28-34 (-0.7 net rating)

Question: Can Goran Dragic drag the Miami Heat into the playoffs?

Recently, Dragic has been bringing it for the Heat. He missed 31 straight games in the middle of the season after having a knee operation. He’s now been back for four games over the last week and a half, and the two games he had recently made me wonder if Dragic has enough to close out an East playoff spot. Miami is currently a half game behind Orlando for the No. 8 seed. Miami also has the 10th toughest schedule remaining. But while they’ve struggled to score and close games all season, they’ve also been missing the on-court stylings of Dragic. He’s still one of the better attackers and finishers in the NBA. Miami’s offense often looks constipated and Dragic’s ability to get to the rim can let things flow a lot smoother.

In his last two games, Dragic has put up 27 points in 20 minutes in a win over the Warriors, and he’s put up 21 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds in just under 25 minutes in a close loss to Houston. Miami has been aggressively mediocre all season long, but the re-addition of Dragic to the mix can change a lot. As long as his knee holds up, he pairs nicely with every backcourt option Erik Spoelstra chooses to throw out there. The Heat finally have a real option at the point instead of force-feeding the idea of Justise Winslow being a full-time playmaker.

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20. Minnesota Timberwolves (Previously 19th), 29-34 (-0.4 net rating)

Question: Will the return of Robert Covington give Ryan Saunders the full-time job?

The Minnesota Timberwolves recently assigned Robert Covington to their G League team for about a day. It was designed to get Covington some work with the team as he continues to rehab from this ankle injury. He’s missed 25 straight games, but the Wolves are pretty optimistic he’ll return to the court soon. The reason this is so significant is that the Wolves desperately need his presence out there. For once, they’re not in the business of tanking games at this point in the season. The team wants to win and see what Ryan Saunders has as a potential future coach of this franchise. And trying to survive without Covington and his defense on the floor has been rough.

Covington’s +3.0 points per 100 possessions on-court net rating ranks third on the team behind Karl-Anthony Towns (+3.1) and Luol Deng (+10.0). Covington had his teammates energized and fighting more than we had seen in years. Bringing him back onto the court means more winning plays throughout these games. The more games they win, the more likely it is that Saunders receives his full-time duty this summer. He helps keep Andrew Wiggins focused and it doesn’t ask rookie Josh Okogie to do so much out there. If Covington can play roughly 15 games the rest of the season, I think bringing back Saunders as the coach is a lock.

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19. Orlando Magic (Previously 22nd), 30-35 (-0.9 net rating)

Question: Is Jonathan Isaac the key to Orlando Magic making the playoffs?

As the Magic have made a huge playoff push in the month of February, Isaac has shown his worth in plenty of ways. He’s been all over the place on defense, swarming the perimeter while also staying tethered to protecting the rim. He’s made shots efficiently, even knocking down 38.6 percent of his 3-pointers on over four attempts per game. When Isaac is on the court for the Magic, they look like a dominant team since February. That’s mostly because they have been one. They’re outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per 100 possessions with Isaac on the floor since the start of February. They’ve still been pretty good (+5.5) without him on the floor, but the dominance with him has been encouraging.

The Magic have an extremely easy schedule the rest of the way. Although figuring out if they’ll play to the level of their competition seems to muddy the waters a bit. They had exciting wins over Golden State and Indiana sandwiched by losses to the Knicks and Cavaliers. They’ll hope this missteps are just minor speed bumps in trying to make the postseason for the first time since Dwight Howard was still on the team. Isaac, though, keeps the versatility of what Steve Clifford preaches on defense. If he keeps hitting shots, we’ll see that net rating impact continue to shine.

GIF ON THE BEAT: It’s a little disconcerting that there are no GIFs of Isaac doing anything on the court on GIPHY.

18. Charlotte Hornets (Previously 17th), 29-34 (-0.7 net rating)

Question: Where did Kemba Walker’s 3-point shot go?

During the first four years of Walker’s career, he flat-out couldn’t shoot. He made 39.5 percent of his field goals and just 31.8 percent of his 3-pointers. He couldn’t shoot. Then over a three-year period, Walker’s shooting accuracy turned him into an All-Star. Over the last three seasons, Kemba has knocked down 38.6 percent of his 3-pointers on over seven attempts per game. That’s big time shooting, especially considering how bad he was at it to begin his career. This season, we’ve seen the 3-point shot of Kemba disappear a little bit. He hasn’t fallen off a cliff with his outside accuracy, but making 35.7 percent is a dip the Charlotte Hornets can’t really afford to have.

Walker is shooting 35.6 percent on pull-up 3-pointers, which is solid enough. He’s making just 35.3 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, which isn’t nearly up to par for him. He’s hit well over 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers over the last three seasons. This year, he just doesn’t seem to have enough lift on his legs to keep that shot consistent. Perhaps that comes from having to carry the team without much help. Or maybe it’s just a random down year for him. Either way, the Hornets need every bit of his shooting moving forward. They need a regression to the mean in their favor.

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17. Detroit Pistons (Previously 18th), 31-31 (-0.5 net rating)

Question: Will Wayne Ellington end up being the best buyout pickup?

In the eight games Ellington has played for the Pistons, they have been an elite team when he’s on the floor. That’s not hyperbole. They have legitimately demolished teams with this sharpshooter on the floor. His numbers don’t blow anybody away. He’s scoring 10.1 points per game and knocking down 37.3 percent of his 3-pointers (38.0 percent field goal overall). Nothing of consequence stands out there. But look at the impact he’s having on the court and now every statistic gets extremely loud. The Pistons outscore opponents by 12.3 points per 100 possessions with Ellington on the floor right now. The second highest this season is Ish Smith and his +5.3 net rating.

The Pistons are an elite offensive team with him on the floor. They’ve scored 118.8 points per 100 possessions with Ellington out there. He spreads the floor and moves enough to make defenses uncomfortable. Ellington knows when to move the ball and when not to force the shot. All of these little things lend themselves into providing Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, and Reggie Jackson with the space they need to play really good basketball. It’s a big part of why the Pistons have been able to get back to .500 on the season. They struggled so much to find wings and the pickup of Ellington may prove to be the best of the waiver pickups. His shooting and presence are just that valuable.

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16. Los Angeles Lakers (Previously 16th), 30-33 (-1.3 net rating)

Question: Was that loss to the Phoenix Suns the final hit?

That ought to do it, right? While the Lakers still have 19 games left to make up 4.5 games in the standings for the No. 8 seed, the loss to the Suns on Saturday likely signaled the end to this playoff run. The Lakers have made their own bed and wet it, now they have to lay in it. Point to whatever you want for the demise of this Lakers season. The injury to LeBron James’ groin sunk a 20-14 team. The trade rumors then tied a cement block to their feet to make sure they couldn’t make it back to the surface for air. The makeup of this team was always about future success rather than this year, but the front office never anticipated the team falling apart in this way.

The Lakers thought they’d get their second banana to LeBron by the end of this season. They struck out with Paul George but figured a trade for a major star, likely Anthony Davis, would still happen. The feelings of those involved in trade rumors never had to be considered because a certainty the trade would happen always existed. Instead, the Lakers have seen everybody’s confidence (except for Kyle Kuzma) go down. Some guys have rallied from it with Brandon Ingram finding a groove lately. But none of the individuals seem to matter because the collective has splintered beyond repair. That’s how you get manhandled by the Suns when you can’t drop these “gimme” games.

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15. Brooklyn Nets (Previously 15th), 32-33 (-1.0 net rating)

Question: How has the return of Caris LeVert gone?

The Nets are in a bad way right now. Having lost nine of their last 13 games, the Nets just can’t seem to regain the magic they had when they went surging through the Eastern Conference. They just got LeVert back and Spencer Dinwiddie is returning as well. So that health boost can hopefully turn things around for Brooklyn the rest of the season. But the return of LeVert has been a bit of a struggle. He can’t make shots right now and the Nets aren’t using him as a primary scoring option. In nine games back from injury, LeVert simply can’t knock down shots given to him. He’s making just 35.1 percent of his shots and his 3-point shot looks entirely broken (27.3 percent). It’s a far cry from the 18.4 points on 47.5 percent shooting he had going before the injury.

The Nets have to find some kind of balance. They sort of need to feed LeVert to get him back up to speed. His usage is way down since before the injury, but he also can’t make shots. You’re not going to keep passing the ball to someone who isn’t making shots. D’Angelo Russell and Dinwiddie taking away so much attention from the defense is key in getting LeVert back into a rhythm. But he has to make himself a factor in transition as much as he can.

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14. Sacramento Kings (Previously 14th), 31-31 (-1.3 net rating)

Question: Have the Sacramento Kings finally begun to KANGZ?

Last week, I predicted the Sacramento Kings would make the playoffs. Instead of pushing toward their first playoff berth since 2006, the Kings are in the middle of losing five of their last six games. With the Kings, we’re always looking for the other Puma to drop. While I don’t want to be overdramatic and say this is the shoe finally dropping, the Kings do seem to be falling apart a bit at the wrong time of the season. The San Antonio Spurs and Lakers both started struggling, and the Kings haven’t been able to take advantage of it. After losing three straight games, the Kings have fallen three games behind San Antonio for the 8-seed.

They can’t drop games like losing to Minnesota at the end of a four-game road trip, or their showdown at home against the Clippers. The next eight games for the Kings are all against Eastern Conference teams. The Kings are 14-7 this season when facing the East. Maybe that will jumpstart them in the right direction to make a final push against San Antonio. Or maybe the shoes will drop and the Kings will just have to try again next season.

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13. San Antonio Spurs (Previously 12th), 35-29 (+0.7 net rating)

Question: Now that the schedule has calmed down, does San Antonio have enough to make a final push?

I can’t stress enough how huge those latest victories were for the Spurs. After their long road trip, the Spurs took down Detroit and OKC at home. San Antonio was spiraling pretty significantly on their usual extended Rodeo Road Trip. That road trip is usually supposed to bring this team together for a playoff push, but this time it just left the Spurs scratching their heads on how to win games. They went 1-7 on the trip with their only win coming against Memphis. It left the Spurs vulnerable in the standings. But the Kings failed to capitalize and the Spurs gave themselves a chance to right the ship.

San Antonio has the 10th easiest schedule left the rest of the season. They’re going to get a bunch of home games to make up for the long trip. This is probably where the Spurs solidify their playoff seeding, despite the fact that they can’t play any defense right now. They don’t have to worry about the Lakers and a bunch of teams challenging them for the playoffs at the moment. It’s pretty much just down to the Spurs outlasting the Kings. History favors the Spurs heavily if that’s the case.

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12. Los Angeles Clippers (Previously 13th), 36-29 (+0.8 net rating)

Question: Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander starting to hit his stride after the trade?

With Tobias Harris gone, the Clippers have needed a huge scoring hole to be remedied. Harris was making play after play for him and his teammates. It’s why the Clippers were humming along so well. Now that’s he’s been exiled to Philadelphia, the Clippers are trying to grow up pretty fast with their incomplete core. Everything is about creating an environment that will lure Kawhi Leonard and friends to the Clippers organization. One way to do that is to develop role players with the potential to become something a lot more meaningful. That’s what the Clippers are trying to cultivate with Gilgeous-Alexander.

Veterans don’t look at first- and second-year players and start thinking how much they want to play with those guys. But they do appreciate young, hungry players trying to carve out a name for themselves within the team concept. SGA has been really good since the trade of Harris to the Sixers. His volume of scoring is low (9.2) over these last 10 games, but his percentages look phenomenal. He’s rocking 45.9/42.9/78.9 shooting splits since the trade, too. Doc Rivers has a very crowded backcourt to navigate right now, but SGA needs more than 24 minutes each night. Pair him with everybody and see who comes out with the best chemistry.

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11. Utah Jazz (Previously 11th), 36-26 (+3.2 net rating)

Question: Are the Jazz going to cruise to 50-plus wins?

Of the final 20 games left on the Utah Jazz schedule, they might have five tough games remaining. That’s being very generous to the competition that awaits them. The Jazz going 15-5 down the stretch of this season seems like the floor for them. Things can always happen that complicate results and predictions. But the Jazz have by far the easiest schedule left in the NBA. Because of that, they’re set up to go on a run and continue their good play. Utah has already won 16 of their last 21 games. Their schedule could easily push this to a 31 of their last 41 type of winning scenario.

Since Utah dropped below .500 on January 7th, the team has gone 16-5 with a +6.0 net rating. That’s the fourth most dominant net rating in the NBA during this stretch. They’ve posted a top 12 offense and the second-best defense. Even though Utah failed to play up to expectations early on in the season when their schedule was a nightmare, they’ve managed to rally really well. It’s just a matter of keeping that momentum from the end of the season when the playoffs start. According to InPredict, the Jazz have a 72 percent chance of grabbing a top-4 seed. Most likely, they settle in at the 3-seed (32 percent likelihood). It would be shocking if Utah didn’t end up north of 50 wins.

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10. Boston Celtics (Previously 6th), 38-26 (+5.0 net rating)

Question: Will this team find postseason success despite their dislike for each other?

The hope being held in Boston is that once the Celtics get to the postseason, things will change based on the intensity of the environment. Maybe the Celtics are set up better for the playoffs than they are the regular season. Put their backs against the walls in the postseason and the skill sets will start to shine. We’ve certainly seen that from the young guys last year when Brad Stevens was left without his two biggest names. Of course, we know the type of show Kyrie Irving can put on in the postseason. But all of this might just simply be too optimistic for the state of the Celtics’ identity.

The locker room basically feels like a high school lunchroom food fight waiting to happen. Or maybe it’s more of an old western saloon in which a massive brawl could break out at any minute. An environment like the playoffs could truly tear this team apart. Not that they’re very together right now, but the Celtics situation is beyond fragile right now. They won’t have an easy first-round matchup, whether they face Philadelphia or Indiana at this point. The Celtics have to come together but they refuse to play for one another. It’s just going to take a massive wakeup call throughout the roster and I’m just not sure anybody is willing to take their phone off silent.

GIF ON THE BEAT: If you type “bar fight” into GIPHY then this comes up.

9. Houston Rockets (Previously 10th), 38-25 (+2.4 net rating)

Question: Can Houston figure out a way to set James Harden up a little more?

Last week, James Harden dropped 58 points on Miami. That, in and of itself, wasn’t news because Harden going on an insane scoring run has become normalized. That’s how absurd of a scorer he is. A 58-point game from Harden is more expected than unexpected. The big news from that game was the momentary rediscovering of Harden’s outside jumper. He went 8-of-18 from downtown that night, which was a far cry from the previous three contests. In those games, he shot just 3-of-31 from deep. Sunday in the win over the Celtics, Harden shot just 6-of-18 from 3-point range. In these five games, Harden’s outside shooting stroke has yielded just 25.3 percent accuracy. Even for a high volume guy like Harden where he can go on a run, that’s just not basketball good enough for him nor the Rockets.

Of his 782 3-pointers taken, Harden has only attempted 45 on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Everything else is him dribbling a bunch and then pulling up off the bounce. He’s been mostly good at it too. He’s shooting 36.3 percent from deep on pull-up attempts. He’s made just 33.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, but it’s also a tiny sample size. At some point, I probably need to just accept the style of play with Harden and Houston, but I keep thinking there can be a more efficient way for Harden to score that saves some energy and makes him even more lethal. Using Chris Paul as the guy to set Harden up for some catch-and-shoot chances seems like the way to go. Imagine this scoring binge continuing with his 3-point shot back.

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8. Portland Trail Blazers (Previously 9th), 39-24 (+3.6 net rating)

Question: Should Damian Lillard make All-NBA Second Team?

Despite any allegiances to any hometown picks, I think most NBA fans can agree that Steph Curry and James Harden will end up on the All-NBA First Team this season. Harden has been scoring at historic rates once again, and Curry is simply too good and impactful not to receive this accolade. Figuring out who goes to the backcourt of the All-NBA Second Team becomes a bit tricky after that. Russell Westbrook will be in the mix. Kyrie Irving will certainly be in the mix. Maybe even throw in someone like Ben Simmons into the mix. But Damian Lillard has to be in one of those guard spots. The Trail Blazers have a chance to make a run at the No. 2 seed in this final stretch of the season. Most likely, they’ll battle Oklahoma City for the No. 3 seed.

Lillard has this team focused and surging at the right time. Portland is 13-5 in their last 18 games. On the season, Lillard’s scoring (25.9) is down from the previous two seasons. He’s also seen his usage rate (29.6) under 30 percent for the first time in four years. Lillard has managed the balance between leadership and flat-out taking over extremely well. He has the second highest true shooting (58.8) of his career and his advanced stats across the board are pretty much comparable with his best seasons. As good as Westbrook has been, Lillard has been more consistent. As dynamic as Irving has been, Lillard has at least matched it. He should be recognized as one of the four best guards in the NBA this season.

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7. Indiana Pacers (Previously 8th), 41-23 (+4.9 net rating)

Question: Should Indiana worry about this past week of games?

Resiliency has been the name of the game for the Indiana Pacers all season long. They’ve done a great job of rallying without their best player, Victor Oladipo. Nate McMillan’s team went 1-3 this past week with losses to Detroit, Dallas, and Orlando. Not exactly a murderer’s row of teams to face, but still some very solid competition in the mix. During this stretch, the Pacers have failed to play their style, which is mostly based around playing one of the slowest, stingiest levels of defense in the NBA. Even in their win over Minnesota, they let Karl-Anthony Towns do too much throughout the early stages of the game. The Pacers just don’t look like the Pacers right now.

Moving forward, they sit just a half game ahead of Philadelphia for the 3-seed. Losing out on this 3-seed is the difference between facing a team like Brooklyn or Detroit in the first-round, instead of facing Boston. That greatly jeopardizes a second-round appearance for them, even if Boston looks like a constant bar fight right now. The Pacers have the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA. They need to get back to their brand of defense because that’s something teams have hated facing on random nights in the NBA schedule. Their resiliency can permeate throughout the organization once again, but they have to get back into the mud to get their team identity back on the same page.

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6. Oklahoma City Thunder (Previously 5th), 39-24 (+4.3 net rating)

Question: Has Russell Westbrook rounded into form?

We’ve seen something pretty weird happening with Westbrook and the Thunder. During this last stretch of games, the Thunder have limped a bit much with a 2-5 record. Those two victories in this stretch happened to be the double overtime victory over the Jazz and a home win over the Grizzlies by four. They easily could be on a seven-game losing streak, right after they won 11 of 12 games prior. The odd thing during this stretch of games for Westbrook is how much better he’s been than throughout most of this season. For the most part, Westbrook has found his shot-making ability once again.

During these seven games, Westbrook has averaged 30.6 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 8.0 assists. I know, it’s weird not to see triple-double numbers plastered across the screen. He’s also shot 47.6 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from deep (that’s incredible for him). Even though the Thunder are struggling to win games right now, it may benefit them if this stretch of play gets Westbrook’s mind and game right. He’s put up numbers all year but he’s struggled with a lot of the basics, as well. Now he’s starting to look like the MVP version of Russ. Of course, one could argue that him putting up these big numbers is proof as to why the Thunder are struggling. Some people believe Russ going Russ means the Thunder get worse. Personally, I think it’s probably somewhere in-between, but it’s good to see Westbrook more on track with his game.

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5. Philadelphia 76ers (Previously 7th), 40-23 (+3.1 net rating)

Question: How brilliant was the Tobias Harris addition?

Obviously, acquiring Harris is a very smart move, but the timing of everything for the 76ers and grabbing him at the deadline gets magnified right now. His numbers are virtually the same so far between the Clippers and the Sixers stints for him this season. In fact, he’s managed to improve his 60.8 percent true shooting with the Clippers into 64.1 percent with the Sixers. With the latest Joel Embiid knee injury, Harris looks like even more of a godsend to this team. Harris has stepped into his ever-fluid role and done everything the Sixers asked him to do.

Embiid has missed five straight games and the Sixers have survived with a 3-2 record in this stretch of games. The two losses happened against Portland and Golden State, which are justifiable. But in these five games, Harris has averaged 24.8 points and 8.0 rebounds with 52.4/40.0/87.0 shooting splits. When the trade happened, many people were wary but also commending of Elton Brand swinging for the fences like this. Would it work on the court like it does on paper? Turns out, Harris has been so easy to integrate into everything that the Sixers just look like geniuses for positioning themselves in this way during the final stretch run. If the Sixers can get Embiid back to health soon, Harris can continue to fill the gaps for this team.

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4. Denver Nuggets (Previously 4th), 42-20 (+5.0 net rating)

Question: How does Denver survive this road stretch to finish with top 2 seeding?

The Nuggets are a lot closer to the No. 1 seed than they are the No. 3 seed right now. They sit 1.5 games behind Golden State for the top record in the West. At the same time, they have a 3.5-game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers. Denver has dominated their opponents much of the season, so anticipated a fall-off in these final 20 games for the Nuggets may not appear to be too smart. However, Denver’s schedule the rest of the season will truly test them one final time before the postseason. Denver has 12 of their final 20 games on the road, a place they’ve played well (15-14) but also mostly survived this season. It’s not just that they have 12 of their final 20 on the road, neither. It’s the opponents that’s going to make this a bit of an obstacle course.

Denver finds itself on the road at San Antonio, at the Lakers, and at the Warriors this week. They follow that up with three straight home games against Minnesota, Dallas, and Indiana. Then they head East for four straight against Boston, Washington, New York, and Indiana. They’re home for a game against Detroit and then have a road back-to-back in Houston and OKC. Home to the Wizards and then they travel to the Warriors. Home for the Spurs and Blazers before going to Portland. They finish the season at Utah and home to Minnesota. That’s an extremely tough schedule. That home-and-home against the Blazers (23rd strongest remaining schedule) could very well determine their No. 2 seed fate.

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3. Toronto Raptors (Previously 3rd), 46-18 (+4.9 net rating)

Question: Can the Raptors make a final push for the 1-seed while also resting Kawhi Leonard?

A lot of teams face a bit of a conundrum down this final stretch of the season. They want to get into the playoffs healthy, but they also want to get themselves the best positioning possible as they hit their stride. Coaches and front offices are often left playing the guessing game of knowing when to sit out their stars on any given night in the NBA without sacrificing too many wins in the process. The Toronto Raptors have been trying to find this balance all season long with Kawhi Leonard. Their star they hope to re-sign has missed 17 games this season for various reasons, but most of them have been because of rest and load management. The Raptors have been great in these games, going 13-4 without Leonard playing.

They might find themselves in a position to fold on the East’s No. 1 seed soon, as they sit 2.5 games (three back in the loss column) behind Milwaukee for the top spot. They’ll probably make one more big push for the top seed before deciding whether or not to pack it in. Toronto is still trying to prove Kawhi, Danny Green, and Marc Gasol are going to reverse these Raptors failures in the postseason. Having home court advantage throughout the East isn’t paramount to the Raptors’ future success. They’re good enough to win games on the road. But my guess is they keep Kawhi out several more games this season. It may cost them the No. 1 seed or any shot at putting pressure on Milwaukee for it, despite how well Toronto has survived without its star player all season long.

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2. Golden State Warriors (Previously 1st), 44-19 (+6.2 net rating)

Question: Will the Warriors stress about the No. 1 seed?

During this run of championships for the Warriors, this team has almost always had the comfort of knowing a Game 7 would be on their home floor. They easily secured the No. 1 seed in 2015, 2016, and 2017. The home court advantage didn’t quite work out for the Warriors in 2016, but that comfort matters for a lot of teams, no matter how good they are. Last season, the Warriors didn’t have that Game 7 at home against Houston. It ended up working out for them just fine, but it was the first time in their run of titles in which they had to go on the road in a Game 7 just keep things moving how they’re supposed to move. As they head into this final stretch of the season, the Warriors have to decide how worried they are about a Game 7 in Denver, should it get to that.

The Warriors want the No. 1 seed. It would be weird if they didn’t. But I’m also not sure how much they fear getting to a Game 7 on the road against Denver or how much they fear that exact game in a conference finals scenario. Some of that gets into the team’s extreme hubris, brought on by the reality of this title being another foregone conclusion. Golden State is 1.5 games up on Denver in the standings and a game up on them in the loss column. More than likely, they’ll be fine in securing the 1-seed. They will rest guys here and there, but Steve Kerr wants all of the advantages possible for this potential three-peat. He wants the team playing at a high level entering the postseason. He wants them rested and healthy. And he wants them with home court advantage throughout. Kerr just has to hope the quest for a higher level and a rested team don’t box each other out in trying to get that top seeding.

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1. Milwaukee Bucks (Previously 2nd), 48-15 (+9.1 net rating)

Question: Does Pau Gasol give them the edge they need?

The Milwaukee Bucks took quick advantage of the buyout market by scooping up Pau Gasol for the rest of the season. Whether or not the 38-year old big man can still contribute to a playoff team is tough to gauge. Gasol has barely seen the floor this season. When he did see the floor, the Spurs didn’t really get a lot out of him despite needing some big man depth. Milwaukee doesn’t need Gasol to come in and be the big man who helped Kobe Bryant secure two more championships. They already have a decently deep frontcourt with some versatile players in the mix.

Obviously, they can alway play Giannis Antetokounmpo at either of the big man positions. Brook Lopez has been a spectacular pickup for them this season. They’re still working Nikola Mirotic into the mix. Ersan Ilyasova continues to be the X-factor stretch-4 he was for Philadelphia last season. And they have a young, unproven big in DJ Wilson to energize the rotation. So Gasol’s opportunities will likely be in a “break glass in case of emergency” situation. We know he can shoot the ball from deep, which fits in nicely with Mike Budenholzer. His size is something the Bucks don’t have a lot of with their interior. But more than likely, he doesn’t have to bring a big impact to the team. If he can impart his experience on a team lacking playoff experience and maybe even win them a quarter or two in the postseason, it’s a perfect pickup for them. But I’m not certain how much Gasol will actually impact them on the floor.

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