How long should the rebuilding process take?
With the Rangers approaching the one-year anniversary of Jeff Gorton and Glen Sather’s letter to fans “to talk to you about the future” and the team looking to once again be sellers at the trade deadline, it’s a reasonable question to ask.
A look around the league at other teams’ rebuilds – both successful and unsuccessful – can help gauge just how long this process will take for the Rangers and other teams on the same quest.
Advertisement
After studying a number of similar teams who’ve embarked on the process since 2000, it’s obvious that it depends what resources and assets the team has to begin with, both in terms of cap space, future assets, and movable pieces that can replenish a team’s pipeline. It also depends on the clarity of a plan, the strength of management and coaching, and how management remedies the hurdles they face along the way.
It also depends on how a team defines the end of a rebuild. Is it reaching the playoffs? It may not be as simple as that, since more than half of the league does reach the postseason each year. Is a one and done in the first round really an accomplishment or a signal that a team is strong enough?
Maybe the end of a rebuild is when a team consistently makes the postseason or is able to win a round in the playoffs. Maybe it’s when they become that dangerous, feared opponent that teams dread in the spring. Maybe it ends with a Stanley Cup.
Each provide a different measurement for teams to strive to. But after rebuilding for years, it’s about striving to do that for the same –contend for years. And that’s what the Rangers are doing.
So what can they learn from others who’ve been there before? Let’s take a look.
While rebuilding, the Pittsburgh Penguins dwelled at the bottom of the standings, but their process can be considered one of the more successful after three Stanley Cup championships and a place among the best in the league years later.
Along with having an aging roster, their financial troubles forced them to shed salary – starting with a lopsided deal featuring Jaromir Jagr in July 2001. While moving players to help remedy their finances, they gained picks and prospects and worsened their record.
Between the 2000-01 and 2001-02 season, the Penguins dropped 27 points in the standings and missed the playoffs. That was the start of selecting in the top five in each of the first five years of their rebuild – Ryan Whitney (fifth overall), Marc-Andre Fleury (first overall), Evgeni Malkin (second overall), Sidney Crosby (first overall after the lockout season and draft lottery), and Jordan Staal (second overall) – and finishing at the bottom of the league.
Through their rebuild, the Penguins had a first rounder in the top-five in every single year. Most teams that rebuild are lucky to have some early picks, but not exclusively those in the first round.
With those early picks, the Penguins formed a core that was supported by some of the veterans still on their roster and players acquired via trade, including Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz, and James Neal.
By 2006-07, Malkin’s first year and Crosby’s second, the Penguins returned to the top of the standings – five years after falling towards the bottom of the standings and drafting fifth overall. The next year, they reached the Stanley Cup Final. Then in 2009 – seven years removed from the start of their rebuild – after a midseason coaching change, they won the Stanley Cup. After some re-tooling along the way, with much of their core intact, they’ve gone on to win two more titles in 2016 and 2017.
The Penguins’ rebuilding model includes falling to the absolute bottom and drafting at the absolute top, which did require some luck in 2005. Not only did they add elite forwards through the draft, but an elite netminder, which is always a risk that early. It may not be a model that all teams can follow, but their sustained success underlines the importance of adding elite talent through the draft.
Advertisement
The Chicago Blackhawks were struggling for a few seasons before finally deciding to rebuild. But that process didn’t get off to the best start after selecting Cam Barker third overall in 2004 and Jack Skille seventh overall in 2005. In each of the next two years, the Blackhawks drafted two pivotal pieces of their rebuild, Jonathan Toews (third overall in 2006) and Patrick Kane (first overall in 2007).
In 2007-08, Toews and Kane’s first years at the NHL level, the Blackhawks made progress as they climbed the standings, but still fell short. In 2008, when Joel Quenneville joined as head coach, the Blackhawks returned to the postseason and did every year since until 2017.
In each of the four years before the 2009 postseason, the Blackhawks had only one first-rounder but multiple picks later in the draft. Besides Toews and Kane, much of their eventual Stanley Cup winning core came from those later rounds, including Bryan Bickell, Dustin Byfuglien, Nick Hjalmarsson and Duncan Keith. Trades both supported and expanded that core, as players including Patrick Sharp and Andrew Ladd were acquired via trade during their rebuild.
Five year after the start of the Blackhawks’ rebuild, they reached the playoffs and went all the way to the Western Conference Final. One year later – and six after their rebuild began – they won the Stanley Cup. As contenders for years to come, they went on to win again in 2013 and 2015.
The Tampa Bay Lightning’s rebuild path differs from both the Penguins and Blackhawks. For one, they haven’t won a Stanley Cup since developing into contenders. But a more important part of their process that sets them apart is how they regressed and fell to the bottom of the standings and had to work their way back from that.
The Lightning started their rebuild with a league-worst finish in 2007-08 and 29th the next year. Those records helped them draft Steven Stamkos first overall and Victor Hedman second overall along the way.
Tampa Bay returned to the playoffs in 2011 and reached the Eastern Conference Final in 2015 – just seven years after finishing last in the league.
But the Lightning didn’t stay in contention after building their team. They fell to 21st in the standings in 2011-12 and down to 28th the following year. Since then though, they’ve been back in the playoff picture and went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final in 2015. While they missed the postseason in 2017, injuries played a major part in that. Now, they’re one of the most dangerous contending teams.
Advertisement
If 2015 marked their return to contention, that’s eight years after the start of their rebuild – which shows how important patience is in this process. While eight years is longer than most teams would anticipate, the results – a dynamic team filled with elite players – make it worthwhile, especially if they win the Stanley Cup in the near future.
Also unlike the other contending teams, the Lightning’s rebuild is also noteworthy because of their scouting. They added highly skilled players at each position through the first round of the draft, between Stamkos, Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy 19th overall in 2012. Tampa add gems outside of the top picks, like Nikita Kucherov in the second round in 2011 and Brayden Point in the third round in 2014, because they aimed for skill and upside. And they added undrafted players like Yanni Gourde and Tyler Johnson, who have developed into key players for them.
Along with a gauge for how long this process could take, there’s lessons to learn from each rebuilding team. The Washington Capitals exemplified how a team can tear it completely down via trade and build back up, while the Los Angeles Kings showed how important trades can be at a later phase in a rebuild to re-tool into a contender.
The Blackhawks showed the importance of winning before costs inflate, as they won their first Stanley Cup with a number of players, including Kane and Toews, still on their entry-level contracts. Their depth players interchanged over the years because of how much their costs increased, along with how much more cap space the core took up. It emphasizes cap management and maintaining that space early in a rebuild and being cautious with extensions, like the Rangers currently are, because that cap space can suddenly become scarce as a team climbs the standings.
But the Rangers can’t only focus on the rebuilds that have worked, they also have to be aware of teams that are currently going through that process and those that have struggled to get to an ideal conclusion.
For current teams to look to, it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs who are building towards success with the “Shanaplan.” The Maple Leafs have emphasized drafting skill and developing it. They’ve also accumulated draft picks over the years to help facilitate their process, with two additional picks in 2015, four in 2016, and one in 2017.
Toronto has also shown the importance of being patient, even when playoff bound. While they’ve made the playoffs the last two seasons, management decided not to invest heavily in rentals and risk the future they’re building for a run they’re not prepared to go all the way in on. That’s something the Rangers have to take note of, particularly when considering their history of sending futures for right-now pieces despite the team appearing too weak for a deep run.
When trying to outline the length of a rebuild, the teams that are perpetually rebuilding have to be considered as well.
The Buffalo Sabres started their rebuild in March 2013 and finished 31st in the league last season. While they finally seem to be gaining traction, they’re an interesting team because while they’ve been able to add top talent through the draft, like Jack Eichel in 2015 and Sam Reinhart in 2014, they’ve made missteps along the way in almost every way – from drafting and developing, to trades and free agent contracts. Some of those free agent contracts looked like an attempt to speed up the process, which only backfired.
Advertisement
But more than anything, their rebuild is filled with instability from the top – from management to coaching – until general manager Jason Botterill was hired in 2017.
The Florida Panthers have drafted well over the years and should be a better team than their record shows. Mismanagement from their front office has forced them to take steps back each time they progress, from changing the team’s direction radically, to prioritizing the wrong attributes. It’s led to questionable contracts and a number of lopsided trades. While the Panthers have some outstanding players still left on their roster, management stripped away what should have helped shaped them into contenders.
And then there’s the Edmonton Oilers.
The Oilers exemplify how top draft picks are just a part of a rebuild, but don’t matter if those picks aren’t developed and handled properly moving forward.
Between 2010 and 2015, the Oilers picked first overall four times. Just two of those players remain with the team. Taylor Hall was dealt in a lopsided trade, as was 2008 22nd overall pick Jordan Eberle. Nail Yakupov, who arguably shouldn’t have even been selected first overall in 2012, isn’t a member of this team either anymore and they have nothing to show for it.
Along with the mishaps with their draft picks, the Oilers struggled to balance out their star power offense with defensive support and, until the Cam Talbot trade, goaltending. Their cap management has been abysmal, as is how they’ve depleted their future assets.
Despite having one of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid, the Oilers haven’t put it all together, which shows just how wrong a rebuild can go, even when that team has the perfect opportunity to transform.
As the Rangers start the second year of their rebuild, it’s key that they stick to their plan and continue to grow. The Rangers should focus on facilitating this process by seeking out skill, upside, and game-breaking talent – and not expedite it, despite the number of temptations they’ll face. Staying on track gives them their best chance to not only win with Henrik Lundqvist in net, but for years to come with cost-controlled assets that are the future of this team and will soon become the present.
As long as the Rangers are rebuilding, it’s going to be a process – that’s the nature of a rebuild. And as the rest of the teams’ experience shows – even those that were fortunate enough to gain top draft picks – it’s going to take some time.
(Top photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)