This weekly article gets to the heart of your fantasy decision making. The patterns and shortcuts our brains prefer to make don’t always result in our making the best choices. Starting players based on their preseason draft order may very well make no sense by Week 4. Refusing to sit a guy who isn’t getting the touches you think he deserves or continuously hoping someone repeats a fantastic preseason or Week 1 performance could mean your brain is getting the best of you and your fantasy team. The goal here is to get a bird’s eye overview of the field, highlight some of the potential bias situations, and use some Game Theory to get creative and beat your opponents.
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WEEK 11 INTRO
In Week 11, we get the matchup football fans have been waiting for: Chiefs at Rams. With a 63.5 point total Over/Under, the highest ever, we can expect a ton of fantasy points from Monday Night Football this week. Start the regulars from both teams, but hold off on Josh Reynolds unless you really have no other options.
Other high priority games — and note that none of these games feature much in the way of defense and all carry Over/Under lines north of 50 points — include:
Philadelphia at New Orleans – a great spot for Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and maybe even Tre’Quan Smith (one guy I’d start over Reynolds), as well as Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery and even Nelson Agholor. The Eagles are a team to pass on more than run on, so Mark Ingram is one player I’m less excited about in this group, especially given his steep usage drop off after one “welcome back” game.
Tampa Bay at New York Giants and Carolina at Detroit — Christian McCaffrey has a fantastic matchup, as does Odell Beckham Jr. I’m still hesitant to trust any of the Panthers receivers, but Detroit is suddenly interesting. Kenny Golladay is the undisputed WR1 there, and a must-start this week, while Theo Riddick should also be busy with Marvin Jones Jr. looking more and more doubtful and both TEs on the injury report as well. It should be a great Kerryon Johnson week.
The Bucs and Giants could be anything at this point. The Bucs forgot how to score, Mike Evans needs way more Stick’Em on his gloves, and Eli Manning shouldn’t get too confident after a nice MNF outing. Saquon Barkley should dominate this game, but I’m probably starting Evan Engram and even Sterling Shepard this week if I own them and have some nasty byes (like George Kittle).
Atlanta vs. Dallas is another interesting game from a fantasy perspective. Dallas has been good at home defensively, and has yet to give up a 30-point game, but Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and/or Austin Hooper are on a roll. Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott owners should be in for a nice reward this week, with the Falcons being one of the best overall and individual positional matchups for fantasy.
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Cincinnati at Baltimore — The Ravens are a team in flux right now, with potentially not only Lamar Jackson, but also Robert Griffin III making QB appearances on Sunday. I’m worried about John Brown and Michael Crabtree, but thrilled for Alex Collins. The Bengals, and Joe Mixon in particular, face a tough Ravens defense in Baltimore. You’re starting Mixon, but if you have alternatives to Andy Dalton or Tyler Boyd, I’d strongly consider them.
PLAYERS INSPIRING BIAS
Blake Bortles: The QB everyone loves to hate has quietly put together consecutive quality starts. Averaging 303 yards through the air with zero interceptions and netting owners right around 20 fantasy points per game over his past two games, Bortles presents a quandary this week. The Steelers have been a fantasy-friendly passing matchup all season long, ranking sixth in fantasy points allowed to QBs. On the other hand, they’ve been able to stop the run pretty well, allowing just 90.8 rushing yards per game (fourth-fewest) and giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. So, while the return of Leonard Fournette is a good thing for all involved, I do expect the Jaguars to have more success through the air on Sunday. If you’re a Tom Brady owner, Bortles could stand in for him this week.
Matthew Stafford: Sort of the opposite of Bortles, Stafford has a seemingly tarnish-proof reputation, yet has had only two 20-fantasy point games this season, and both of those were in September. Now down his two primary and familiar pass catchers, as well as both tight ends (keeping an eye on the Friday injury report, of course), I don’t see great things for Stafford this Sunday. It’s a good matchup vs. Carolina and he could post that one 35-plus fantasy point game but if you have better options, I’d take them.
Corey Davis: The experts are on him, off him, on him again. Which is it? He has two really good games this year, three so-so efforts and four duds. He’s the Titans’ WR1, but much like we saw with Kelvin Benjamin this year, that only means something insomuch as the QB can/will throw him the ball. The good news for Davis is that Marcus Mariota looks as good as he ever has the past two games; poised, in control, and capable of making throws, scrambling, and deciding which is the better choice on any given play. I think Davis and TE Jonnu Smith will finish the season strong.
GAME THEORY
In the last preseason primer, we talked about beating the lineup your opponent is putting in front of you. That’s harder in DFS, but we can guess about ownership and we know something about volatility. Are you playing the team in your league that’s coming off the highest score of Week 9? Facing the Saints fan who loaded up on “his guys”? Who are the creative, high ceiling, low floor players we can replace otherwise worthy starters with this week?
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Demaryius Thomas: Recall I was cool on Thomas in Week 9, when Novelty Biases may have inflated his value. After two more weeks with the team, however, I expect him to take on a much more sizable role. It doesn’t hurt his cause that Keke Coutee doesn’t sound fully recovered from his hamstring strain. Washington started the season as a shutdown defense, and still allow an average of only 19.4 points per game. Still, it’s flirting with being a top 10 fantasy matchup for QBs and WRs in the past two weeks. I think Thomas could be a sneaky play as Josh Norman tails DeAndre Hopkins.
Eli Manning: I’m as big an Eli detractor as anyone, and I was a fan of his in the offseason. I thought that with a shored up offensive line, healthy receiving options and a bona fide running back he could put up consistently good numbers. Boy, was I wrong! He is coming off the kind of game I expected though, with tons of Beckham Jr., mixing it up to Shepard and Engram, and Barkley ripping off a bunch of nice runs. Maybe it helped that the defense came up with some lucky interceptions, maybe it’s finally clicking. Either way, there’s a good chance we get one more game of good Eli as the Giants host the Bucs this weekend. Tampa Bay is the second-best matchup for QBs and WRs, so if you have any Giants clogging up your bench, this is the time to start them.
Mike Evans: Bear with me a moment, because Evans has a name that says WR1. Yet in fantasy points, receptions, and touchdowns he’s clearly in the WR2 range. His ceiling is still 100-plus receiving yards and 2 TDs and we’ve recently seen his floor of one catch. That kind of volatility is what you want if you’re facing what looks like a juggernaut. So while it may seem tempting to start Tyler Boyd or Calvin Ridley over the frustrating Evans, if you feel like you need a huge score, Evans is the best bet (Note: my colleague James Koh has a great breakdown of Evans and all the Bucs, using Next Gen Stats, for your reading pleasure).
Andrew Luck: Luck has been pretty consistent over his last five games, but he has three games this season in which he attempted over 53 passes, going over 300 passing yards in each. He’s facing a tough pass defense vs. Tennessee, tougher than I think people realize (allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs), but sitting Luck in favor of someone like Josh Rosen or Lamar Jackson in a good on-paper matchup is just silly. After all, Luck had his best game of the season vs. Houston, who allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs.
WAIVER TARGETS/DFS VALUES
So much of DFS hinges on the matchups. The price::opportunity puzzle is different every week, and you can approach your season-long fantasy league the same way. If you’re already playing the matchups, where you are much more active on the waiver wire than the rest of your league, this is the list for you. These are also some of the cheaper/available guys I think have real potential to outplay more expensive or higher drafted counterparts this week.
Doug Martin: Martin has enough fantasy football history to easily fit the bias section above, because no doubt you have a strong opinion of him. Setting those opinions aside, two things matter this weekend. First, the matchup with Arizona is fantastic for RBs, and awful for QBs…the Raiders should run the ball. Second, Martin looked like a workhorse back in the last three weeks, coming away with around 70-90 total yards in each of those games. There have been no TDs, and the remaining concern is if and how the Raiders can get him near the goal line. He obviously can’t do it all himself.
Bruce Ellington: Ellington could be a sneaky fill in this week if you’re low on WRs or FLEX plays, thanks to his being the only healthy receiver in Detroit besides Kenny Golladay. He should find some room and act as an outlet for Stafford in the slot, Golden Tate’s old role. Note that he didn’t make it into the player pool on FanDuel, but is minimum salary on DraftKings.
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Jonnu Smith: Mentioned above, Smith is finally looking like the TE we thought we’d be getting after Delanie Walker’s injury. A big, athletic target, he has touchdowns and double-digit fantasy points in both of his past two games. That’s a good way to gain Mariota’s trust and if he can keep it up, he could have a huge role in this offense. The Week 11 matchup with Indianapolis is one that allows an average of over 10 fantasy points per game to TEs.
Ricky Seals-Jones: I’m not high on the Cardinals passing game in general, though I do think Rosen, Larry Fitzgerald and of course David Johnson could all have season-best games vs. Oakland this weekend. There’s a good chance the matchup bolsters Seals-Jones’ bottom line as well. The TE has been creeping toward fantasy relevance as Rosen becomes more comfortable and the new coaches are doing things that make sense with this offense. In last week’s great matchup, Seals-Jones was targeted nine times (catching five).
Have your own Week 11 quandary? Ask in the comments!
(Top photo by Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports)