When it comes to building a fantasy hockey roster, having a strong starting goaltender is essential, but having a supporting cast in net can prove to be just as valuable.
After all the big-name goaltenders are snapped up, who’s left and how do we make sense of who to pick up?
Using data from Corsica.hockey, we took a look at goaltenders in the league and tried to find some hidden gems based on a few key factors:
- Save percentage differential: is there a big uptick in a goalie’s save percentage this year compared to last?
- Expected save percentage: based on the shots a goaltender is facing, what should their save percentage be?
- Expected save percentage differential: how far away from what was expected – for the good (positive differential) or bad (negative differential) — is a goaltender playing based on what is in front of them?
- Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA): where does a goaltender stand so far as goals they’ve prevented compared to a replacement level player.
To view this data for all goaltenders, click HERE.
Once we completed that analysis, we tried to find goalies who are playing enough, and playing well enough, to be considered a good addition to your team.
Trending Up
Chad Johnson (STL)
In his third consecutive start on Sunday, Johnson had a rough outing against Minnesota, but outside of that game, he’s making a case to get more playing time, particularly when the other half of the Blues’ tandem (Jake Allen) has struggled.
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In half as many minutes as Allen, Johnson has a 2.08 goals against average and a .927 save percentage that is 1.25-percent above expectations resulting in 1.71 goals saved above average. With that save percentage hovering right around what is expected, it means Johnson may not light the house on fire, but he’s playing pretty true to where he should be.
IN SUMMARY: Johnson is primed to get more playing time and could be counted on as a solid backup performer on your roster.
Thomas Greiss (NYI)
Greiss is beginning to get on a few more owners’ radar as he’s basically split the Islanders’ net with Robin Lehner (who missed time due to injury) this year. Greiss is third in overall save percentage differential (plus-3.2) while also significantly outperforming last year’s campaign ranking fourth in the League currently in goals saved above average rate.
It bears mention that this is Greiss’ first year working under the tutelage of new goaltending coach, Piero Greco and the Islanders also have the revered Mitch Korn on board as the overall director of goaltending. Could a new goaltending coaching staff make this kind of a difference? It’s early, but right now Greiss is performing well and could be a trusted asset on a fantasy roster.
IN SUMMARY: Greiss’ improvements are silly good, but why not ride it while it lasts?
SOLID BACKUP: Jaroslav Halak (BOS)
Fantasy owners have been moving on Halak, due in large part to Tuukka Rask’s personal leave earlier this week. Right now, Halak has nine starts to Rask’s eight and has maintained a .945 save percentage, 1.77 GAA, while performing 2.92-percent better than expected of him given what he’s facing. His expected save percentage is up 1.22-percent while his goals saved above average is a strong 9.57. It also bears mentioning that one of the greatest areas of improvement for Halak from last year to this has been his save percentage against high-danger attempts. Last year, he was at .776, and this season he’s posting an .836-percentage:
Halak played Wednesday for Boston and is expected to get another game this weekend in the team’s back-to-back.
IN SUMMARY: Expect Rask to own the Bruins net – his performance isn’t far off from last year’s numbers – but Halak will play well when called upon and he is seeing the minutes.
Trending Down
Jake Allen (STL)
A surprising 55-percent of ESPN owners still have Allen on their roster. Why is that surprising? Not only have Allen’s numbers shown a struggle in net (.879 save percentage, 3.99 goals against average), in looking at our key measures, his save percentage is 2.36 below where it should be based on the shots he’s faced, and his goals saved above average is second-worst in the league (minus-8.52).
IN SUMMARY: Allen is not where he was last season; in fact, he’s struggling more. If Allen is on your roster, time to find another solution in net.
WATCH LIST: Corey Crawford (CHI)
71.2-percent of ESPN owners currently have Crawford on their roster and The Athletic’s goaltending analyst, Catherine Silverman, points to him as a goaltender to watch.
“I’d say that if anyone doesn’t already own Crawford, they may want to keep an eye on the waiver wire,” Silverman said. “And if they own him, they may want to hold on for a little longer (if they were thinking of dropping), because the Blackhawks may turn things around here with (new head coach, Jeremy) Colliton and Crawford is currently underperforming a bit comparatively.”
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Crawford is well below his performance from last year, but that is hard to value properly given that injury limited his season to just 28 games played.
Right now, he’s posting a .901 save percentage and a 3.07 goals against average, and a goals saved above average of just .26. His overall save percentage is .09 higher than expected, but the bigger question might be how he plays as the season goes on:
Crawford started hot and dropped off hard. pic.twitter.com/G1DP93qIFh
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) November 13, 2018
IN SUMMARY: Give Crawford time, because he’ll get the minutes to play, but be judicious in how much time you give the player if he’s on your roster.
Organizations to Watch
Pittsburgh
When the Penguins made an expansion draft deal with Vegas to select Marc-Andre Fleury, a lot of the confidence behind that move came from faith in 24-year-old Matt Murray. But this season hasn’t been the Thunder Bay, Ontario, native’s best early on. He’s had nine starts but finished just seven games, and when it comes to total TOI, backup Casey DeSmith trails Murray by just under 18 minutes total (though it bears mentioning Murray missed three games due to a concussion).
DeSmith also has the better stats early on with two shutouts, a better save percentage (.938 compared to .886) and a goals against average of 2.05 to 3.46 for Murray.
So, what’s at play here? Is there reason to think Murray won’t be the starter long-term? Has his development stalled? Not necessarily, but there are some issues to watch, particularly as the Penguins are another team working with a new netminder coach — Mike Buckley who is in his first year with the club after Mike Bales was let go after four years in Pittsburgh.
One analyst we spoke with mentioned that sometimes Murray makes his work harder than it needs to be – coming out of the net and creating more distance to cover in lateral moves; working on a change in his glove position. While Murray is likely working to make improvements to his game, the tendencies he currently has are well-known after getting to two Cup Finals and that might mean opponents are capitalizing more quickly that Murray can adapt.
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Murray has earned the right to be respected as the number one, but until his game gets settled, DeSmith is likely to see quality ice time and is playing well with the opportunity.
IN SUMMARY: DeSmith is playing well and is not on a lot of fantasy rosters at the moment. He should be a consideration as Murray struggles and the club has shown a willingness to go with their backup.
Calgary
Mike Smith has been the starter for the Flames but has struggled mightily. Most fantasy owners have wizened to not having him on their roster, but with the differences in play between these two goaltenders right now, as Silverman notes, Rittich may very well be the starter soon.
“Peters has a nasty habit of giving his starter every single opportunity to get his game back,” Silverman said. “But with Quenneville on the market, I think a lot of nervous coaches are going to be moving away from their own bad habits.”
In just six starts, Rittich hasn’t faced a ton of shots against and Smith has seen the lion’s share there, but that could also increase if Rittich’s time does as well.
IN SUMMARY: Like in Pittsburgh, Rittich could provide a low-cost goaltending addition that could pay dividends, as a player who has had the better performance early earns more and more ice time in net.
Honorable Mention:
Darcy Kuemper (ARI): With Antti Raanta hurt, Kuemper will be getting the minutes and he’s not showing to be a huge liability, either. His save percentage is just 1.45-percent behind last year’s, and his expected save percentage is only .63 below where it should be.
Scott Darling (CAR): Darling isn’t getting a ton of fantasy love just yet, but he’s playing well with a save percentage 2.44-percent higher than expected. The concern here is playing time as Carolina continues to carry three goaltenders with Curtis McElhinney and Petr Mrazek (currently day-to-day).
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Frederik Andersen (TOR): Andersen is playing well (.934 SV%, 2.02 GAA), but a quickly thinning goaltender depth chart in Toronto may challenge Andersen in the minutes department and that could have adverse effects. “Andersen might start to see some wear and tear,” Silverman said. Especially since Garret Sparks hasn’t exactly been on top of the world so they’re playing Freddie almost every game again.”
Schedule Watch
These teams have back-to-backs in the coming week, presenting the best chance for a backup goaltender to get a start:
Boston (Friday/Saturday)
Buffalo (Friday/Saturday)
Carolina (Saturday/Sunday)
Edmonton (Saturday/Sunday)
Los Angeles (Friday/Saturday)
Minnesota (Saturday/Sunday)
New Jersey (Saturday/Sunday)
St. Louis (Friday/Saturday)
Toronto (Thursday/Friday)
Shayna Goldman contributed to this article; all stats via Corsica.hockey and are current as of the completion of Tuesday’s games
(Photo of Tuukka Rask, Jaroslav Halak: Bill Wippert/Getty Images)