In these parts, there are pizza controversies (Regina’s vs. Santarpio’s), college controversies (Boston College vs. Boston University), and fall beverage controversies (apple cider vs. pumpkin latte).
There is no goalie controversy in Boston.
Standard statistics are a good starting point in determining which of the Bruins’ goalies — Jaroslav Halak and Tuukka Rask — is currently the No. 1. Halak is 4-0-2 with a 1.51 goals-against average and a .947 save percentage. Rask is 3-3-0 with a 3.15 GAA and a .902 save percentage. By these measures, there is not much gray area.
Advertisement
Black and white become even starker with sharper numbers.
According to Corsica Hockey’s metrics, which consider shot type and location among the variables, Halak has been expected to post a .924 save percentage during five-on-five play in his seven appearances. His actual five-on-five save percentage is .971, best of any NHL goalie who has played in six or more games. Appropriately, Halak’s delta between actual and expected is a league-best .470. Halak is, by definition, the hottest goalie in the league.
By comparison, Rask’s actual five-on-five save percentage of .915 is lower than his expected rate of .923. This puts his delta in the red, a color he has seen flash behind him too often (11 five-on-five goals allowed compared to Halak’s four).
So on Friday, Bruce Cassidy did not have to think deeply to declare Halak his starter for Saturday against Nashville. For now, it is Halak’s net, to be shared when the Bruins consider it a necessity.
That time is coming.
The Bruins host Dallas on Monday. After two off days, they kick off a three-in-four stretch at TD Garden against Vancouver, Toronto, and Vegas. Starting on Nov. 13, they will spend nine straight days on the road, visiting Colorado, Dallas, Arizona, and Detroit.
Every team requires two goalies for segments like these.
The first week of November is a premature time to make one goalie the long-term ace. The position is subject to volatility of every kind: performance, health, team play, and luck. The goalie who’s hot in the fall could be wearing a baseball cap in the spring.
Conversely, a goalie struggling when jack-o’-lanterns are pitched in compost piles has plenty of time to find his touch. This is what the Bruins expect Rask to do, just like he did last season.
Last year, Rask was 1-3-2 with a 2.93 GAA and an .896 save percentage in October. November was slightly better: 3-5-0, 2.78 GAA, .901 save percentage. Rask caught fire in December, when he went 9-0-1 with a 1.22 GAA and a .955 save percentage, posting two shutouts in 10 starts. The net was his after that.
Advertisement
The Bruins are 7-3-2. They are one point behind division-leading Tampa Bay. Yet they have room below their ceiling.
They remain top heavy. Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, and Anders Bjork have been inconsistent. Ryan Donato was demoted to Providence. David Backes is without a point and coming off a concussion. Charlie McAvoy has not felt well enough to play since Oct. 18. Kevan Miller (hand) and Matt Grzelcyk (lower body) are out.
Perhaps Rask’s game will kick in if and when the rest of the lineup gains traction. Rask is at his best when he knows exactly what his teammates will do. He has not had that privilege yet. It is likely one of the reasons he is off.
Rask’s history does not include an extended segment of trouble. His resume, however, indicates a drop in play from his peak of his smashing 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons. From 2014-15 until now, Rask has an all-situations save percentage of .917 in 259 games, 13th-highest among goalies with 150 or more appearances.
In other words, average.
Only three goalies have higher cap hits than Rask’s $7 million average annual value: Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist, and Sergei Bobrovsky. These three kingpins have also had their respective issues: Price with injuries, the 36-year-old Lundqvist with age, and Bobrovsky with expiring-contract blues. This goes to show that sinking term and money into goalies is not necessarily a path to success.
For now, Rask has room to grow. But the Bruins’ fate is not tied to Rask’s expected improvement. They have a very good alternative in Halak. It is not a bad thing to have the NHL’s hottest goalie on your roster.
(Photo of Rask and Halak: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images)