The best guess is the Dodgers will sign Clayton Kershaw to a new contract by 4 p.m. ET on Friday and prevent him from opting out of his present deal. If indeed the two sides reach an agreement, the Dodgers will be betting on Kershaw the person. Kershaw the pitcher, while still quite good, is not necessarily a wise gamble the way players currently are evaluated — in a calculated, detached manner, almost devoid of emotion.
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The Dodgers, of course, cannot view Kershaw solely from that perspective. He is their modern-day Sandy Koufax, their three-time Cy Young Award winner, their franchise pitcher whom they selected seventh overall in the 2006 draft. Kershaw’s work ethic makes him a model for their other pitchers, for their entire organization, really. And his plan, as he told me in an interview for Fox Sports 1 during the National League Championship Series, is to regain at least some of the velocity he once had.
The odds will be against Kershaw pulling off such a feat, just as the odds are against every pitcher whose stuff diminishes over time. Justin Verlander, 35, is the exception — his average fastball velocity increased from 93.3 mph in 2014, the year in which he was recovering from core muscle surgery, to an average of 95.5 mph the past two seasons.
Kershaw, 30, has been on the disabled list three consecutive years with back trouble, averaging just 162 innings (he also missed time this season with biceps tendinitis). His average fastball velocity, strikeout and swing-and-miss rates all have plummeted, while his hard-hit rate this season increased to 36.1 percent, the first time in his career it was in the 30s. Yet, when I asked him what it was like learning to pitch with less power than he had in years past, he offered a lengthy, revealing answer.
“I don’t think of it like that,” Kershaw said. “And I don’t compare to past years either. With that aside, I think the hitters tell you what you need to do. So for me, I’ll do whatever it takes to get outs. I’ve always said I don’t care how you get the outs; you’ve just got to get them.
“There’s always going to be times where strikeouts are important and you need to get strikeouts in big situations with guys on base and things like that. But other times, a first-pitch groundout is better than a strikeout. I just want to get outs as quickly as possible. I want to get outs as efficiently as possible. And when the time comes to strike somebody out, I still think I have the stuff I need to do that. But I don’t really think about the adjustments or the changes I’ve made. I don’t really think about that in context to years past.
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“Now with that said, I am throwing slower. I know that. And I don’t know if that’s going to be for the rest of my career, either. I firmly believe that I can get that back and I’m going to spend a lot of time this offseason working on that.”
I followed up by asking Kershaw if he relishes the challenge of needing to evolve. Over the last 10 years, only Verlander and Max Scherzer have thrown more innings than the Dodgers’ ace — including postseason — and such a workload generally exacts a toll.
“No, I’d rather just be the same the whole time,” Kershaw said. “I don’t want to change if I don’t have to, but you know everybody says Father Time, you’ve thrown all these innings.
“I’m 30. I’m not that old. I’ve got a few innings (2,248 1/3 in his career), but there are a lot of guys who have thrown more than me that are still throwing just as hard, so I really do believe there’s plenty left in the tank. I’m going to spend the offseason figuring that out.”
Kershaw in his present state is hardly a slouch, though the perceptions of some skew negative due to his 4.32 ERA in 152 playoff innings and 6.06 ERA in six elimination-game starts. Consider his performance, though, during the most recent regular season: Kershaw’s 2.73 ERA, while his highest since 2010, would have ranked seventh in the majors if he had not fallen 2/3 of an inning short of qualifying for the league leaders.
According to FanGraphs’ dollars metric, which converts wins above replacement to a dollar scale based upon what a player would make as a free agent, Kershaw was worth $28.2 million. While that figure represented the lowest of his career — down from $68.3 million, $52.2 million and $37.1 million the previous three seasons — it was still within range of his actual $33 million salary.
The logical solution for the Dodgers is to sign Kershaw to a longer deal at a lower base salary than the $32.5 million average he will earn the next two seasons if he sticks to his current deal. The new number — probably in the $25 million to $30 million range — still would be uncomfortable for the Dodgers. But if you’re not going to bet on Kershaw — bet on his commitment and all he means to the franchise — who exactly are you going to bet on?
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Giants seek to go big
The Giants do not view themselves as the type of club that should settle for a team’s No. 2 executive. No, according to major-league sources, they want a current No. 1 — their own Theo Epstein, their own Andrew Friedman, their own Dave Dombrowski.
The team’s ambition is admirable, but such a high-profile executive does not appear to be available. Which might explain why, in the words of one source, the team’s search is “nowhere at the moment” — and why Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi, Friedman’s No. 2 but a big name in the industry, is an attractive target.
MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi first reported the Giants’ interest in Zaidi on Tuesday. Zaidi and Friedman declined to comment on the possibility at a news conference on Thursday, but an interview of Zaidi is likely, according to a source. The Dodgers probably would not stand in the way of Zaidi trying for a promotion to president of baseball operations, but they could boost his salary to prevent him from even considering a jump to their biggest rival.
And if Zaidi were unavailable to the Giants, then what?
As I reported Oct. 11, the Brewers denied permission for the Giants to interview David Stearns for their opening (Stearns has at least one year left on his deal, sources say). The Athletics recently signed top execs Billy Beane and David Forst to extensions, and the Indians’ Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff are not in play, according to sources.
None of the four candidates known to be interviewed by the Giants — the Rays’ Chaim Bloom, Cubs’ Jason McLeod, Diamondbacks’ Amiel Sawdaye and MLB’s Kim Ng — would give the team the type of splash it is seeking. Bloom likely would get strong consideration if the Giants failed to land a bigger name, and it also is not out of the question the team will hire two executives, one as president of baseball operations, one as GM.
Did D-Backs’ Escobar jump too soon?
Three years ago, when Ben Zobrist signed his four-year, $56 million free-agent contract with the Cubs, the super-utility man was coming off a .776 OPS and 118 OPS-plus in his age 33 and 34 seasons.
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Like Zobrist, Eduardo Escobar is a switch-hitter who offers defensive versatility, though he is not as experienced in the outfield. Escobar had comparable two-year numbers to Zobrist — a .794 OPS, a 110 OPS-plus — while five years younger. Yet on Oct. 22, Escobar agreed to a free-agent deal with the D-Backs for less than half of Zobrist’s guarantee — three years, $21 million.
Escobar isn’t Zobrist, who helped the Royals win the 2015 World Series and was the 2016 Series MVP with the Cubs. But more than one executive believes the D-Backs got an excellent deal with their early signing, with one projecting Escobar’s outer limit to be four years, $40 million if he explored the open market.
Why would Escobar settle for a lesser deal before other teams had the chance to bid for him? His agent, D.J. Rengifo, did not respond to a request for comment. But Escobar, after reaching his agreement, indicated his comfort with the D-Backs was a major factor.
“I think the most important thing for me coming here was the people here,” Escobar said. “There are great people here. Everybody took care of my family and that’s the most important thing for me. I signed it because I like it here. I’m happy to be here and ready for next season.”
By signing before the market opened, Escobar also avoided the logjam awaiting free agents at similar positions.
Second basemen: DJ LeMahieu, Brian Dozier, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Murphy.
Third basemen: Manny Machado, Mike Moustakas, Josh Donaldson.
Super-utility men: Marwin Gonzalez. Josh Harrison.
Escobar is more attractive than many of those players, but he obviously was paying attention last offseason, when many free agents lingered on the market and/or received contracts for less than they desired. This way, he gets peace of mind and a sizable guarantee at a place where he already was comfortable. It will be interesting to see how many other free agents take a similar approach.
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The Realmuto Chronicles (cont.)
Jeff Berry, the agent for Marlins All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto, created something of a stir on Tuesday when he told MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM that his client would not sign an extension, adding his opinion that Realmuto “definitely” will be traded by spring training.
From the Marlins’ perspective, however, little has changed since last offseason, when they did not move Realmuto after he requested a trade. The Marlins, like all teams, are open to anything, particularly coming off a 98-loss season. Realmuto, 27, surely would command a significant return. But he also is the Marlins’ best player, their leader and an asset in the community — and under team control for two more years.
Not surprisingly, the Marlins’ position is they will trade Realmuto only if they receive an offer they cannot refuse. Otherwise, they might just keep Realmuto and continue trying to convince him of their commitment to building a sustainable contender — a tough sell, based on Berry’s comments.
The Marlins traded outfielder Christian Yelich to the Brewers last offseason when he was under five years of control. Their return included center fielder Lewis Brinson and their Nos. 2, 9 and 17 prospects, according to MLBPipeline.com — outfielder Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz and right-hander Jordan Yamamoto. But with Yelich the likely NL MVP, it still can be argued the team acted too soon.
(Photo: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)