The first weekend in November is shaping up as one of the biggest in the state’s football history, at least as far as regular seasons go. LSU takes on Alabama while the Saints welcome the Rams to New Orleans. Depending on the results of these two matchups, the state could have a lot of bragging rights.
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For the Saints, winning on Sunday relies on more than just one or two individuals having a good game. Bill Parcells, head coach Sean Payton’s mentor, once said, “You are what your record says you are.” Coming into Week 9, the Rams are the best team in the NFL, and it will take a collective effort from everyone wearing black and gold to win key matchups if they’re going to usurp that title from them.
Saints Defensive Line against the Rams Offensive Line
Last year this matchup took place in Los Angeles with the Rams coming away with a 26-20 victory over the Saints. Cameron Jordan had one of his best games of the season in that contest, registering two sacks, four tackles, two tackles for loss, two quarterback hits and two pass deflections. Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen also matched Jordan up against Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth to play strength against strength. Whitworth had a Pro Bowl, and All-Pro, season in 2017, and Jordan had a day against him.
With the possibility of Marcus Davenport not playing, it will be interesting to see if Allen chooses to use the same strategy. Whitworth might be the oldest lineman in the NFL, but that hasn’t stopped him from having success against almost all who have opposed him. Lining up Jordan opposite him might present the Saints’ best chance at getting after quarterback Jared Goff.
It isn’t just the passing game that Whitworth has excelled in. Together with left guard Rodger Saffold, the Rams have had a lot of success running the football due to their abilities as run blockers. When running behind Whitworth, running back Todd Gurley is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. That is not a typo, nor is it due to a small sample size. Through eight games, Gurley has run behind Whitworth 38 times for 274 yards. Of those 38 runs, 11 went for 10 yards or more, according to Sharp Football Stats. That’s the same number of 10+ yard runs as he has among all the other gaps combined. Running behind Saffold has also been a fruitful endeavor as Gurley is averaging 4.6 yards per carry on 22 total attempts.
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However, when running to the right side behind Austin Blythe and Rob Havenstein the Rams star running back sees his yards per carry drop to 3.1 and 3.5, respectively. So far this season the Saints front seven has been the best unit in the NFL at stopping the run. The highest yards per carry average they are allowing is when teams run behind the right guard at a tick of 3.7. There are three spots along the offensive line where, as a unit, they are allowing less than 3 yards per carry (left tackle — 2.8, center 2.9, right tackle 2.9).
When it comes to running outside toward the sidelines, the Saints have successfully defended that as well. Running to the offense’s left has resulted in 2.3 yards per carry. Should a team try to run to the right outside the tackle box, they’ll be met by a defensive allowing 1.1 yards per carry in that direction. This is a testament to players like Alex Okafor, Taylor Stallworth, Tyeler Davison and David Onyemata up front, who have been crucial to the defense in the trenches. It’s the improved play in the linebacker room led by Demario Davis that might be the true difference here.
These numbers seem to point to Jordan matching up with Whitworth being a likely siting. Not only would this put the Saints best pass rusher going after Goff’s blindside, but it would also put their best run defender against the Rams best run blocker. Two years in a row we would see a strength vs. strength matchup against two of the league’s best at their positions.
Saints Offensive Line against the Rams Defensive Line
It’s no secret that the Saints offense flows through Drew Brees. Logic would then dictate that to stop the Saints’ offense you just need to stop Brees. As the league has found out over the course of his 18-year career, that’s much easier said than done. If there is a man who can stop Brees, it has to be Aaron Donald.
Brees’ offensive line has only allowed him to be sacked nine times so far in 2018. That translates to 3.6 percent of his passing attempts, which is tied for the lowest he’s been sacked since 2009 (3.5 percent). One could argue that the current rendition of the offensive line is the best Brees has had since the 2009-2011 stretch that saw him play with five Pro Bowlers and two All-Pro players. (Turnover at center and right tackle resulted in some shuffling.)
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Donald will look to change that. He currently leads the league in sacks with 10 while being double teamed on 70 percent of his pass reps, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. While advanced analytics like this are certainly subjective, that’s an eye-popping number. In comparison, Texans star defensive end J.J. Watt is being double teamed on 46 percent of his pass-rush reps, while Vikings end Danielle Hunter is being doubled on 34 percent of his.
Last season, left guard Andrus Peat had the difficult task of taking on Donald, who ended that game with one sack, two tackles for loss and five total tackles. While far from being one of his best performances, he was certainly a factor in the game. The Saints are hoping this year’s results will be a little different.
Not to be forgotten, Ndamukong Suh lines up next to Donald, making them the most feared interior pass rush in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will likely move the duo around, but right guard Larry Warford seems like the likely candidate to take on Suh one-on-one while Peat and Max Unger try to slow down Donald. With Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead defending the edges, Brees should have a pocket to move around in, but like with most quarterbacks, interior pressure can rattle him and force mistakes.
To combat this threat, Payton could look to utilize the screen game that has been a staple of his offense since he arrived. From left to right, Brees has a 99, 115 and 121 ratings when throwing under 15 yards. His receivers have shown the ability to get open quickly with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara being the main beneficiaries.
Saints Secondary against the Rams Receivers
Marcus Williams has had a quiet, but effective, 2018 season through seven games. During the preseason there was a lot of hype built around him with his impressive workouts hitting social media, and the combined desires of Williams and the Saints’ fan base to move on from the miracle play by the Vikings last year. To start the season, it seemed like Williams was “pressing” a bit. He was trying to do too much to make up for past mistakes. With the Vikings game now behind him, hopefully that weight has been lifted. Even with it, he’s had a good season.
New Orleans will need a big game from their free safety as the area the Rams dominate the most in the pass game is the middle of the field. When Goff has aired it out over the middle deep he’s completed 75 percent of his passes for a 122 passer rating. Half of those passes have come on first down and resulted in two touchdowns and a 149 passer rating. Against the Vikings we saw Allen return to more of the single high and Cover 3 looks he liked to run last year. These types of pass coverages will put Williams in position to defend the middle.
Allen could also choose to defend Brandin Cooks similar to how he did last year when Cooks was with the Patriots. Marshon Lattimore spent much of his time covering Cooks and allowed four receptions for 28 yards and only 8 yards after the catch. Lattimore is the only Saints defender who possesses the speed to keep up with Cooks and he’s shown he can box him out when forced to cover him deep as well. To counter, Rams coach Sean McVay could use Cooks as a decoy and in comeback routes.
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On the opposite side of the field Eli Apple should draw Robert Woods. Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas draws most of the fanfare when it comes to catching percentage, but Woods is bringing the ball in at a 70.8 percent mark with a 14.61 yards per reception average. He’s stretching the field while also being a trustworthy outlet in McVay’s offense. If the Saints end up playing more Cover 3 and Cover 3 match concepts then Apple will have to defend Woods on an island, so getting physical with him at the line of scrimmage might be his best option.
Finally, slot receiver Cooper Kupp is expected to play Sunday. Coming off winning the defensive player of the week award, P.J. Williams will need to come out of the gate playing his best football. Even though Kupp isn’t a top 10 talent like Adam Thielen is, he’s still extremely dangerous and is a threat to every layer of the defense. What’s more, Kupp actually has the most receiving touchdowns for the Rams with five even though he’s only played in six games.
Just like in Minnesota, it will be up to the defensive line and front seven to pressure Goff to assist the secondary in getting them off the field. Sunday’s game will require the Saints to win all of their matchups. On the offensive side of the ball, keeping Brees upright will allow them to exploit a Rams secondary that has struggled at times this year. In many ways the Saints and Rams mirror each other in their abilities and tactics, and Sunday’s game might be decided by which team scores last.
(Photo of Drew Brees and the Saints vs. the Rams last year: Harry How / Getty Images)