I started investigating whether to R.I.P. Rob Gronkowski as a fantasy force, at least for this year. But quickly discovered that what we should actually R.I.P. as a fantasy force is the entire Patriots offense.
Maybe it’s 41-year-old Tom Brady, or just a lack of quality weapons, or a change of focus for the Patriots from a pass-dominant offense to a run-dominant one (even though they are not good at running). But it’s Week 9, kids. And this mediocre trend actually dates back to December of 2017.
Note this is “regular-season only.” Full disclosure: I wrote an article last December questioning whether we were seeing the beginning of the end of Brady — and then he proceeded to throw for approximately 7,000 yards in the Super Bowl.
My point isn’t that Brady is a “bad” quarterback now, or that the Patriots offense should be avoided. It’s that Brady is a “meh” fantasy QB and thus, for the first time since Brady blew out his ACL over 10 years ago, the offense is okay, but nothing to get excited about.
Let’s look at two sets of data for the team and then get more specifically into Gronkowski.
Dating back to December 2017 — 13 regular-season games — the Patriots rank:
—17th in fantasy points for QBs
—1st in PPR points for RB
—23rd in PPR for WRs
—9th in PPR for TEs
If that seems too arbitrary an end-point for you, how about just 2018:
—12th in fantasy points for QB (but they haven’t had a bye yet, remember and this isn’t per game)
—1st in PPR for RBs
—16th in WR PPR
—16th (gulp Gronkowski owners) in TE PPR
Since December 2017, 13 Games, Brady is 18th in YPA, 19th in TD/INT ratio, 18th in passer rating but, to be fair, 6th in QBR mostly because he’s sixth in play success. Since Julian Edelman’s return, the Patriots have improved but are still not inside the top 10 in passer rating, yards per play or yards per pass play.
The most important stat for fantasy scoring is red zone scoring attempts per game. Here are the Patriots ranks by year:
2012: 1
2013: 2
2014: 1
2015: 2
2016: 4
2017: 1
2018: T-8
But, more importantly, they are 1.5 RZ scoring attempts per game off the pace (Rams are 5.1 vs. New England’s 3.6). In 2016 they were just 0.3 off the pace. This is to illustrate that the Patriots, in this key stat, are now sporting an offense that’s just in the pack and not elite.
According to STATS LLC, Tom Brady’s poor-throw percentage of 16.3 is the third-worst of the top 20 QBs ranked by yards. The only ones worse are Mitch Trubisky (19.2 percent), who is basically Tim Tebow 2.0, and Deshaun Watson (16.7 percent). But Watson is fourth in average length of pass and Brady is 22nd. So Brady’s poor-throw rate is actually worse than Watson’s if you adjust for distance.
Perhaps as a result, the Patriots are more run oriented than in recent years. They rank 15th in pass plays per game after leading the league in that stat in 2017. And they’re sixth in rushing attempts per game compared with 15th last year. That’s despite ranking 24th in yards per rush. This is similar to what happened in 2016, when they played most of the year without Gronkowski. This year, they do have No. 87, at least nominally.
Gronkowski has been hurt by the inaccuracy and Brady’s trouble on deeper throws (5-for-24 on passes thrown over 20 yards from scrimmage). But he’s also unable to do much after the catch now, in his ninth season. Gronkowski’s last three qualifying years in YAC, according to data provided by the NFL:
2015: 20th
2017: 55th
2018: 91st
This would suggest that Gronkowski has lost explosiveness and athleticism.
“Gronk’s lack of production has most likely been impacted by his back injury, and to a lesser degree, his lingering ankle injury,” says Dr. Anand Lalaji of InsideInjuries. “The thing that makes Gronk’s production difficult to predict is the chronic nature of his back spasms and related back issues. While the remainder of the season won’t be a bust for him, we expect his performance to be extremely inconsistent week to week.”
Not helping matter is the Patriots lacking another player that the opponent has to fear. Chris Gronkowski talked earlier this year about how this impacted his brother.
“He’s super frustrated with it,” Chris Gronkowski told WEEI in September. “He just wants to get the ball in his hands. He just can’t do it when no one else is open. He can’t have single coverage when no one else can beat single coverage.”
Josh Gordon was supposed to be the player who unlocked Gronk. But Gordon’s played 16 games since his 2013 breakout season and seems like just a guy at this point— not someone any team has to fear. His stats in this full-season worth of action: 60 catches for 911 yards and three touchdowns. Snore. Even in his last three games for the Patriots, Gordon has converted 22 targets into a pedestrian 184 yards and no scores. He has two plays over 20 yards as a Patriot.
So Gronkowski, as he’s done for much of his career, is going to have to figure out a way to beat defenses despite the extra attention. His season is not bad when viewed in the context of tight ends deep into their careers. Just looking at all ninth seasons since the merger, Gronkowski is ninth in fantasy points per game. Note that he’s basically neck-and-neck with 2005 Tony Gonzalez (11.28 PPG to 11.11). Similar to Gronk this year, 2005 Gonzalez could not find the end zone. But he nonetheless had 55 more touchdowns left in his career.
So what are the takeaways?
White is leading the charge in PPR and is a top play, for sure.
Gronkowski is still a viable play in a very weak year at the position but is completely outclassed now by the top guys, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce. Gronk will end up being a bad fantasy pick but not a season-wrecking one.
Brady is now a run-of-the-mill fantasy QB, not shocking at age 41. The experts rank him ninth for the rest of the season but it’s crazy to have him ahead of Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and (because of his running) Trubisky. I can’t see a logical argument for ranking Brady ahead of Philip Rivers, either. Brady is 15th in fantasy points per game right now.
Perhaps Edelman can be a big difference maker? Brady is eighth in fantasy points per game since Edelman’s return, though that’s largely on the strength of two fluke rushing TDs. But it’s still very possible that Brady’s performance declines as the season wears on, like Peyton Manning did late in his penultimate season of 2014. I’m not predicting that, just saying it’s more likely for Brady at age 41 than him returning to peak form.
You can’t play any Patriots WR with confidence. They’re all WR3s and flex plays, or as I call them, flex prays because, with this 2018 team, you really have to hope.