AUBURN, Ala. — The story has been well told by now, but it bears repeating this week. Jarrett Stidham was a top Texas quarterback prospect who chose Baylor out of high school. As Stidham said this week, the Aggies didn’t recruit the Stephenville native that hard because they had Kyler Murray.
When Stidham’s recruitment opened up the second time, after he left Baylor and took a year off from football to preserve his eligibility, Texas A&M went toe-to-toe with Auburn. In the end, though, the Tigers got Stidham, while the Aggies stood pat with Kellen Mond — who will be Stidham’s opposite number Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
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What does that all mean this week?
“I don’t know,” Stidham said with a smile. “I just like playing Texas A&M.”
Stidham definitely enjoyed his time against the Aggies in 2017. Playing back in his home state, Stidham had his first three-touchdown game at Auburn and threw for 268 yards — the most he recorded against a Power 5 opponent all season.
That 42-27 win in College Station opened a November to remember for Stidham and the Auburn offense. Over the next three weeks, he completed more than 70 percent of his passes and scored seven touchdowns in a stretch that included home wins against No. 1 teams Georgia and Alabama.
For this November opener against Texas A&M, Stidham and Auburn find themselves in a much different situation. Auburn is 5-3 and already out of contention for the SEC West title. Fan frustration with Stidham, Gus Malzahn and the program as a whole was at a high point before the Tigers’ 31-16 win at Ole Miss two weeks ago. The road victory led into a much-needed off week for Auburn’s quarterback and his teammates.
“It’s huge,” Stidham said. “I think any time you have an off week after eight games, get ready for the last four, you know, team-wise, you get to relax a little bit, recover a little bit, and really start focusing on finishing out this thing the right way.”
Under Malzahn, Auburn is 7-0 following off weeks. Even in down years like this one, the Tigers have been able to come out of the break with improved focus and execution.
That trend, though, will go right up against the historical one for the Auburn-Texas A&M series — since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012, the road team has won all six meetings.
Texas A&M, which also is sporting a 5-3 record, is coming off a physical road loss at Mississippi State. November hasn’t been kind to the Aggies in recent years, but they’ll be determined to show things are different with first-year coach Jimbo Fisher.
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Which trend will continue this weekend? Here are five key areas that could determine the outcome (noon ET, ESPN).
Auburn’s offensive balance vs. Texas A&M’s unbalanced defense
Auburn’s off week was crucial for rest and recovery, but leading rusher JaTarvious “Boobee” Whitlow is still a question mark heading into Saturday. While the Tigers have been wildly inconsistent on offense this season, they’ve been at their best when Whitlow gets consistent touches.
Texas A&M boasts one of the best run defenses in the country, as Mississippi State was the first team to rush for more than 125 yards on the Aggies this season. Texas A&M defensive tackle Daylon Mack will be a tough matchup for the Tigers’ interior.
In terms of defending the pass, the Aggies are No. 114 nationally in yards allowed per attempt. They’ve allowed 15 passing touchdowns and forced only three interceptions.
Auburn’s offensive staff and players did a deep dive into what has and hasn’t worked during the bye week. How they will — or won’t — adjust to attack this Texas A&M defense will be a crucial factor. Stidham played well in this matchup last season, but his success through the air often is affected by how Auburn is able to run the ball.
Whose line wins it anyway?
Auburn’s chief offensive issue this season has been line play. The Tigers haven’t executed at a high level in run blocking or pass protecting, although they seemed to turn a corner against a bad Ole Miss defense two weeks ago.
Texas A&M’s offensive line has had its fair share of problems, too. The Aggies average just 3.51 yards per carry in SEC play, and they are tied for the second-most sacks allowed this season among Power 5 teams. (Auburn, boosted by its Ole Miss performance, is up to more than 4 yards per carry in SEC play and has allowed 10 fewer sacks this season than Texas A&M.)
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And both of these offensive lines will face one of their toughest challenges to date this week. No team in the SEC has more tackles for loss this season than Auburn, and it only ranks second behind Alabama in sacks. Texas A&M, as previously stated, has been dominant against the run.
The winner of this game could ultimately come down to which offensive line performs better. Auburn needs to have some semblance of balance to maximize its offensive potential with Stidham, and Texas A&M has to cut down on those negative plays to get a victory away from home.
The increasing importance of turnovers
In games that Auburn has won or tied the turnover battle this season, it is 5-0. In games that Auburn has lost the turnover battle, it is 0-3.
That might seem simple — giving the other team more possessions hurts your chances of winning — but it’s truer than usual this season. At this point last season, Auburn had already won two games while losing the turnover battle and lost two while winning the turnover battle.
The turnovers have been back-breakers for Auburn this season. Against LSU, two interceptions loomed large in a game that was decided by a last-second field goal. Against Mississippi State, Auburn gave the Bulldogs a short field for a touchdown on a muffed punt and fumbled the ball on what was nearly a touchdown. Against Tennessee, Stidham’s three turnovers directly led to 14 points.
Texas A&M isn’t a high-scoring offense by any means, as it hasn’t scored more than three touchdowns in a game against a Power 5 opponent. But if the Tigers hand the Aggies extra possessions, they’ll find ways to make the most of them with their possession-heavy style.
Taking advantage in the red zone
Texas A&M’s ball-control offense and strong defense have been enough for them to win most weeks. But against Mississippi State, one major area of concern led to a loss, as the Aggies scored two field goals on three red-zone trips.
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Texas A&M ranks 102nd nationally in touchdown percentage on red-zone trips this season. It went 2-for-5 in three different SEC games. Auburn’s defense, on the other hand, is coming off of an excellent red-zone performance against Ole Miss. Defensively, the Tigers rank No. 2 nationally in touchdown percentage.
The Aggies’ own defense hasn’t been nearly as stout inside the red zone, but that hasn’t mattered too much. Opponents have only gotten inside the Texas A&M 20-yard line 16 times this season, which is the fourth fewest in the FBS.
Auburn has had a major issue sustaining drives this season, which will be a problem against a third-down defense that is No. 7 nationally. Both defenses have been excellent in limiting touchdown opportunities this season, so the winner probably will be the offense that makes the most of its chances.
Welcome home?
The 2018 season ultimately will go down as a disappointment for Auburn, even if the Tigers somehow run the table in a brutal November.
Focus shouldn’t be an issue for Auburn coming out of the off week. But with yet another 11 a.m. local kickoff time, there will be some questions about the atmosphere inside Jordan-Hare Stadium — even though this is the last big game of what was a weak home slate.
Under different management, Texas A&M has had no problem beating Auburn in more charged-up environments. In 2014, the Aggies upset a No. 3 Tigers team in a game that sent Auburn spiraling for the rest of the season. In 2016, Texas A&M piled more pressure on Malzahn by handing Auburn its second loss in the first three weeks of the season.
Not to lean too heavily on a common Malzahn saying, but every situation is different. Texas A&M isn’t the same team that has visited the Plains recently, but Auburn isn’t the hyped title contender, either. Keep an eye on how that affects the tone of how this game plays out.
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Prediction
Auburn did itself a huge favor two weeks ago by beating Ole Miss before the off week. The Tigers should be the fresher and sharper team in this one, especially with Texas A&M coming off a physical loss at Mississippi State. In Oxford, Auburn’s defense looked like one that could win a game by itself again, and it might have to with the offense facing a tough Texas A&M defensive front. The Aggies don’t match up particularly well against the Tigers in several areas such as pass protection, turnover margin, and red-zone conversions. With this being Auburn’s last big home game — and one Malzahn needs to win — let’s give the edge to the hosts in a lower-scoring slugfest.
Auburn 24, Texas A&M 16
(Top photo of Marlon Davidson by Albert Cesare / Montgomery Advertiser via USA TODAY Sports)