ST. LOUIS — You never know where you’re going to meet Blackhawks fans, especially ones who recognize you.
(I might not be as recognizable as my great teammate Mark Lazerus — buy his book, by the way— but I swear it does happen occasionally.)
My latest unexpected meeting came on an airport park shuttle early Saturday morning as I was on my way to St. Louis for the Blackhawks-Blues game. I encountered Paul, a 300-level season-ticket holder, and we, of course, got to talking about this season’s team.
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Paul wondered if I thought the Blackhawks were a playoff team. I gave him a condensed version of what I’m about to lay out here. This is what I think of the Blackhawks after 11 games:
Forwards
Artem Anisimov
Anisimov knew he didn’t produce enough in 5-on-5 last season. That was something he wanted to change this season. Early on, he was quiet in that area, but his production has come to life since playing again on the second line with Patrick Kane. Anisimov had a goal and two assists in 5-on-5 play in Saturday’s game against the Blues and now has two goals and three assists in 5-on-5 play this season. It’s a positive step.
Anisimov can be effective in the Blackhawks’ lineup, but it is all about placement. Even though breaking up Kane and Nick Schmaltz was a tough choice for Joel Quenneville — Kane would probably choose to play with Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat if it was up to him — Anisimov does seem best suited for that second line. He had 10 goals and 14 assists and 14 goals and 17 assists in 5-on-5 play the two years he centered Kane and Artemi Panarin, and those are the type of numbers the Blackhawks would like him to get back to. Anisimov continues to win about 46 percent of his faceoffs.
Alex DeBrincat
I got my first real sense DeBrincat might elevate his game to another level at the NHL’s players media tour before the season. I had asked Patrick Kane about his week-long camp with Darryl Belfry, and he immediately jumped into how great DeBrincat looked. There was something about the way Kane was talking that indicated he wasn’t just pumping DeBrincat’s tires.
DeBrincat put a lot of time into his game this offseason. He stayed in Chicago and worked with the Blackhawks strength coach, trained with local skills analyst Brian Keane, attended Belfry’s camp and did everything he could to get better. That, plus now being a staple in the top six and on the power play, is why DeBrincat is off to the start he is with eight goals and six assists through 11 games.
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Reminder, we’ll be breaking down DeBrincat’s goals all season and getting his thoughts on some of them. That story has been updated with his first eight goals here.
Alexandre Fortin
This might be strange to think, but the NHL might be more suitable for Fortin’s game than the AHL. His speed is his greatest asset and he seems to know where to get himself on the ice. Those two attributes are accentuated when he’s playing with better players. He’s certainly benefitted from the players around him. He’s scored two goals so far and both were set up by great passes. Jan Rutta connected a stretch pass to free him for a breakaway on the first one, and Nick Schmaltz skated through the defense to set him up at the doorstep on the second one.
The numbers indicate Fortin’s been a positive addition since he came up from Rockford. Through his eight games, he’s first on the team in individual scoring chances per 60 minutes and high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play and third in individual Corsi for per 60.
John Hayden
Hayden provides the physical element Quenneville likes to have his lineup. It’s going to be the rest of his game, though, that determines whether Hayden remains in the lineup. He’s been with Marcus Kruger and Chris Kunitz on the fourth line the past three games. The line had positive possession the first two games and was negative possession against the Blues. For the season, Hayden has a 41.03 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for one goal for and three against in 5-on-5 play. It wouldn’t be surprising if Hayden has to battle for this roster spot all season with David Kampf, Andreas Martinsen and whomever else.
Luke Johnson
Johnson was sent to Rockford for a two-game stint, and he’s come back and been an impactful player on that third line. The Blackhawks have a 37-18 shot-attempt advantage with Johnson on the ice the past three games. The Blackhawks will look for more production from Johnson and that line going forward. He has zero points through six games.
Dominik Kahun
Kahun showed some promise in a world competition last season and was successful in Germany’s top division, but we just weren’t sure whether it would translate here. He had to prove himself to Quenneville in training camp and the preseason, and he did that. He got promoted to the top line with DeBrincat and Jonathan Toews.
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What Kahun does best is distribute, and that’s worked well alongside his two linemates. He has four assists, including three primaries, in 5-on-5 play. He has a 54.72 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for 10 goals for and seven against.
David Kampf
Kampf has sat the past three games. He’s another defensive-minded forward who is probably best suited for the fourth line. If he’s not playing, the Blackhawks may consider sending him back to Rockford.
Marcus Kruger
Kruger has been put exactly back into his same defensive role as his last stint with the Blackhawks. He has a 13.25 offensive zone starting percentage, which is one of the lowest in the league. Of his 123 faceoff starts this season, Kruger has started 72 of them in the defensive zone. Considering those numbers, he’s had a respectable 47.66 Corsi percentage. More importantly to the Blackhawks, he has been on the ice for five goals for and two goals against in 5-on-5 play. Penalties have been an issue for him as of late. He’s had five minors in the past four games and leads the Blackhawks with six minors.
Chris Kunitz
Starting Kunitz on the top line was a far stretch, but Quenneville eventually settled on the fourth line, where Kunitz is probably best and where he was signed to play. Kunitz’s offensive days are behind him, but he can still drive possession. He’s fourth on the team with a 55.67 Corsi percentage.
Patrick Kane
Kane remains one of the elite offensive players in the NHL. He added two goals and an assist Saturday to give him 11 goals and six assists on the season. He leads the league in goals and is third with 17 points, and is doing it with the power play still being a mess. He has just three power-play points, which is five fewer than the top power-play producers this season.
Andreas Martinsen
Martinsen will likely be a healthy scratch more often than not. He’s played in four games this season.
Saad has looked better the past five games after being demoted in the lineup. He’s been on the ice for five goals for and two against during that span. The Blackhawks still need more from him individually. He has zero goals and two assists in 5-on-5 play this season. He’s had just one shot on goal in 5-on-5 play in nine of 11 games this season. It’s difficult to envision him becoming that 25-30-goals scorer the Blackhawks were banking on when he was brought back, but they still need him to produce at some rate for them to be successful.
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Nick Schmaltz
Schmaltz has been OK through 11 games. He has a goal and six assists, and there are times when he shows elite skill and can skate through defense. There are other times when he’s invisible. He has worked well with Fortin and Johnson and they’re creating a lot of possession, but the Blackhawks would like more from Schmaltz in his third year. He has been better on faceoffs lately, which is a positive sign.
Jonathan Toews
Toews has had the response he and the Blackhawks were hoping for this season. He came out with five goals and five assists in his first five games. He has slowed down with one goal and zero assists in his past six games, but overall he has to be pleased with 11 points through 11 games. He has a 53.87 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for 10 goals for and eight against.
Defensemen
Brandon Davidson
Davidson was in a tough spot after sitting out the first six games as a healthy scratch before getting his first shot in the lineup this season. It was an opportunity to potentially snatch that final defenseman spot from Brandon Manning, though, and Davidson didn’t take advantage of it. He had a 40.43 Corsi percentage and was on the ice for 17 scoring chances against in his two games. He’ll have to sit and wait for his next chance.
Gustafsson has evolved into a solid second-pair defenseman. He’s able to create and contribute offensively, his defense has gotten better and Quenneville’s trust in him has grown. He’s often been among the Blackhawks’ top three defensemen in 5-on-5 ice time, and he led the team in that category against the Blues on Saturday. He still commits the occasional careless turnover, but he’s definitely cut them down. He has a 52.80 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for eight goals for and three against.
Henri Jokiharju
Jokiharju probably doesn’t make this team if Connor Murphy is healthy. Jokiharju is still a 19-year-old rookie and will have his ups and downs, but there’s no doubt he makes the Blackhawks better now. He’s mobile, been reliable defensively and moves the puck quickly. He has a 53.32 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for 10 goals for and 10 goals against. He leads the Blackhawks in 5-on-5 ice time too.
Duncan Keith
Keith seemed to take last season as personally as anyone, and it looks like he’s going to have a bounce-back season. He’s second on the team with a 56.09 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for 13 goals for and eight against in 5-on-5 play. Quenneville has cut back his 5-on-5 time, and Keith is now third in that category.
Brandon Manning
Manning has been what a lot of people expected him to be when he was signed. He can fit into a team as a sixth or seventh defenseman but probably not more than that. Quenneville was hopeful early on Manning could be leaned on in a second-pairing role, but he’s moved away from that and even recently healthy-scratched him for a few games. Manning is the lone Blackhawks defenseman with a goals-for percentage less than 50 percent. He’s been on the ice for five goals for and nine against in 5-on-5 play and has a 47.87 Corsi.
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Jan Rutta
Rutta had arguably his worst game of the season on Saturday. He turned the puck over a few times. On one shift, he turned it over and then took a penalty at the other end. Quenneville saw enough in the second period, and Rutta didn’t play the final 28:17 of the game. Overall, Rutta’s numbers have been OK. He has a 49.83 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for five goals for and five goals against. He could find himself out of the lineup when Murphy returns.
Brent Seabrook
Seabrook played more than usual Saturday because Rutta was benched, but Quenneville has consistently had Seabrook as the fourth, fifth or sixth defenseman in 5-on-5 play. Seabrook has proven he can be fine if his minutes are limited. He and Murphy were a solid pair when together last season. Seabrook has a 48.31 Corsi percentage and has been on the ice for 10 goals for and eight goals against in 5-on-5 play.
Goalies
Corey Crawford
There were so many questions about Crawford heading into this season. It’s surprising, for one, that he’s playing, and secondly, that he’s playing so well. There was nothing he could do to help the Blackhawks as they gave up so many quality chances to the Blues on Saturday, but he’s been great otherwise. He stopped 106-of-112 shots in his first four games. If he’s playing like that, the Blackhawks have a shot to make the playoffs.
Cam Ward
Ward did just enough to keep the Blackhawks in games early in the season even though his save percentage wasn’t great. He’s since shown more in recent games. The Blackhawks’ hope is he can continue to be that type of goalie as he settles into his role as No. 2. Most scouts believe Ward can win the Blackhawks games as long as he’s not having to start every game. He and Crawford could make a good tandem.
Lines
DeBrincat-Toews-Kahun
The top line came out hot and has cooled off a bit, but it should be fine in the long run.
Saad-Anisimov-Kane
Kane is driving this line. Anisimov is doing his part. Saad needs to figure out how he factors in. The Blackhawks have a strong 1-2 scoring punch with their first two lines.
Fortin-Johnson-Schmaltz
This line has been the Blackhawks’ best possession line over the past three games. It’s creating a lot of zone time. It’s a matter of finishing, though. At some point, I’d expect Dylan Sikura to come up and get placed here. Maybe they move Schmaltz to center again and move Johnson to the fourth line.
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Kunitz-Kruger-Hayden
This line has been doing what it’s been asked. The line starts a lot in the defensive zone, doesn’t get scored on often and creates some possession. Whatever offense it gives is an added bonus.
Pairs
Keith-Jokiharju
The Blackhawks appear to have a legit top pairing with these two. Jokiharju was thrown into the deep end and has swum. He’ll likely only get better as the season goes on.
Gustafsson-Seabrook
Quenneville is starting games with Gustafsson and Seabrook, but he trims Seabrook’s minutes along the way. That’s part of the problem with the Blackhawks is they’re missing another defenseman who can play in a top-4 role. Keith, Jokiharju and Gustafsson aren’t enough. Maybe Gustav Forsling and Murphy can assist there. I could see both of those defensemen factoring into the lineup at some point this season.
Manning-Rutta
This pairing has been rocky. It looked better against New York and Anaheim, but it helped that the Rangers and Ducks aren’t teams that create much. Rutta especially struggled Saturday, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he is scratched at some point. Manning could be in and out of the lineup this season too. The Blackhawks need to address their defense if they’re really going to go somewhere this season.
Special teams
Neither side of the Blackhawks’ special teams has been effective so far. The penalty kill is 24th in the league at 74.3 percent. It doesn’t help that Kruger, their top penalty killer, has often been in the box.
As for the power play, it remains one of the worst in the league. The Blackhawks are 29th at 11.1 percent. I’m not sure what the answer is, but they should be better than this. You can’t be that much of a threat in 5-on-5 and become less of one when you have a man advantage.
Overall
So, are the Blackhawk a playoff team? As I told Paul, I think they are from what I’ve seen so far. The offense can produce, and I think it can get better if Sikura and possibly Victor Ejdsell find spots in the lineup. Crawford is still an elite goaltender and Ward will be a fine No. 2. Defensively, there are issues, but they have a better top pairing than last season, Gustafsson is a legit top-4 defenseman and Murphy and Forsling could improve the group in the long run.
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That said, I don’t think there’s much room for error, and there’s probably not much separating the Blackhawks from the Blues and a few other teams that will likely be pushing for those final few playoffs spots. For the Blackhawks to separate themselves and potentially make a real push, general manager Stan Bowman is going to have to do something with that cap space at some point this season. The Blackhawks might be good enough to get into the playoffs, but this team doesn’t currently look like a Cup contender.
(Top photo: Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports)