TAMPA, Fla. — Keys, key numbers and details as the 2-3-1 Browns prepare for Sunday’s game versus the Buccaneers …
When the Browns have the ball
An offense energized and transformed by the insertion of Baker Mayfield four weeks ago has regressed over the last two games. Lack of explosion in the run game and lack of production from the wide receivers have been the major issues, but there is good news.
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The 2-3 Bucs haven’t covered or tackled anyone in a month. Their defense has been so bad that coordinator Mike Smith was fired earlier this week and has been replaced by Mark Duffner, who last called defenses for the Bengals more than 15 years ago. The Browns have scored 26 points in their last two games, while the Bucs are allowing 35 points per game on average.
So, Mayfield should have chances to attack down the field. He didn’t get much help from his receivers last week, and the Chargers frustrated the rookie with pressure and by devoting extra attention to Jarvis Landry. Mayfield knows he’ll have vertical chances and knows Landry wants to be involved early this week, but the Browns have other mouths to feed. Most notably, they have a new running back rotation after trading Carlos Hyde on Friday, leaving Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb to handle the running game.
The run game has to help the receivers and keep the Browns defense off the field. The Bucs are comfortable playing long games requiring 35 or more points to win, while the Browns need to shorten the game and keep Mayfield out of must-pass situations. In the passing game, the Browns need more from Antonio Callaway but might reduce his snaps and try to give him a more specific role, especially early. The problem is the Browns have five healthy receivers, three are rookies and two — Breshad Perriman and Da’Mari Scott — will be suiting up for the Browns for the first time, assuming they are active.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Johnson get most of the snaps at running back, but Chubb is going to get double-digit carries. If he has success, he might get 20. The Browns will likely have five wide receivers and three tight ends active, meaning Johnson should exclusively line up at running back. If the Browns need an extra blocking back in some passing situations, they can use fullback Orson Charles and tight end Darren Fells.
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Landry has to get open. If the ball doesn’t come his way early he must maintain his composure and continue working to get open. The Browns need him to be a playmaker and a leader, and an offense searching for a spark can’t be derailed by pouting or finger-pointing. The receivers have to make plays. The Browns might have to score 30 to have a chance to win Sunday.
Look for lots of runs, another busy day for David Njoku and an effort to get the ball to Landry early. If that results in the defense focusing on Landry, Callaway and Damion Ratley have to make plays down the field.
When the Bucs have the ball
Bombs away. The Bucs throw the ball down the field both better and more often than most teams do, and their tall and talented group of pass-catchers will give a shorthanded Browns secondary fits. The Browns need their pass rush to force Jameis Winston into mistakes, and they’ll have to mix coverages to try to slow Winston.
With E.J. Gaines out due to a concussion, TJ Carrie is the likely starter at right cornerback and Briean Boddy-Calhoun will play in the slot. The Browns could also move Damarious Randall to cornerback in some situations and might promote Jeremiah McKinnon from the practice squad now that they have an open roster spot.
The Browns got gashed by the run last week. The Bucs haven’t run well or often, mostly because they’ve either been losing or been more successful throwing it. If Peyton Barber gets rolling, the Browns are in for another long afternoon. The Browns will be without middle linebacker Joe Schobert due to a hamstring injury. Christian Kirksey takes over as the signal caller and middle linebacker, but the Browns probably won’t play much base defense against the Bucs. Winston will rely on Mike Evans and his tight ends, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, while setting up deep shots for DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin.
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This week, Myles Garrett openly criticized NFL officiating and some of the calls that have gone against the Browns. Garrett has a point, and it will be interesting to see whether he can draw some holding calls with his public gripes. Either way the Browns need a big game from Garrett but also need to keep an eye on snap counts for Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi. The forecast calls for temperatures in the 80s Sunday afternoon.
Who’s in and who’s out?
Schobert, Rashard Higgins and Gaines are out. JC Tretter plans to play but has said he expects his high ankle sprain to linger, meaning Austin Corbett is a snap away from taking over at center. The Bucs will be without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and starting defensive end Vinny Curry, meaning Carl Nassib will get plenty of snaps for his new team against the team he gave incredible “Hard Knocks” entertainment and little football production.
Gregg Williams emphasized this week that Schobert is a significant loss and that the Browns need multiple players to step up in his absence. Genard Avery is the obvious candidate for more snaps, but against the Bucs the Browns probably will end up relying on more action and solid pass coverage from Kirksey, Jamie Collins and strong safeties Jabrill Peppers and Derrick Kindred.
Because the Browns are without several regulars, it’s hard to say how they’ll handle the 46-man active list and special teams units. Chubb probably will be taken off most special teams. The Browns will dress 10 or 11 defensive backs and all will play.
The pick
A strong offensive start is key for the Browns, both for keeping the Bucs off the field and for the offense’s confidence. The Browns have only six first-quarter points all season, worst in the NFL and inexcusable at this point. The Bucs have been blown out once but have been both consistent and explosive offensively. Playing at home for the first time in a month, they’ll likely come out firing.
If the Browns get multiple sacks and force multiple turnovers like they did in their first five games, they’ll be in position to win. Can their receivers and kicker deliver in the fourth quarter? Possibly, but a shorthanded defense needs to withstand the heat and the Bucs passing game. Look for Winston to make a few big plays, and enough for the Bucs to end a three-game losing streak.
Bucs 35, Browns 31
(Photo of Nick Chubb: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)