Remembering 'Snowvertime' and 3 other thoughts and predictions for Bills-Colts matchup

BUFFALO, NY - DECEMBER 10: Heavy snow falls during the Buffalo Bills NFL game against the Indianapolis Colts as both teams huddle at New Era Field on December 10, 2017 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***
By Matthew Fairburn
Oct 20, 2018

INDIANAPOLIS — When Harrison Phillips was drafted by the Buffalo Bills, he received an iPad loaded with game film. Being the eager student he is, Phillips devoured each clip, trying to learn the defensive system and get a feel for his new teammates.

But when Phillips got to the Bills’  Week 14 game against the Colts from last season, he got frustrated. Because of the onslaught of lake effect snow, the game film was unwatchable.

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“I couldn’t watch anything,” Phillips said. “There were 25 of the 50 clips you couldn’t see a dang thing. There was like one angle where you could maybe see a formation or something.”

The snowstorm dumped more than 16 inches in Orchard Park by the end of the night, and between eight and nine inches fell during the game. It was believed to be the snowiest Bills home game ever. The forecast didn’t predict that weather, either. Eddie Yarbrough remembers walking out for warmups and seeing plenty of green turf. When the Bills stood in the tunnel to be introduced, players couldn’t even see onto the field.

“I was not warned!” offensive tackle Jordan Mills said.

“It was just a whiteout,” Yarbrough added, “and I remember thinking, ‘Lucky Colts. They get to wear all white.’ And then, who do they have in the backfield? Oh, yeah. Frank Gore, a bruiser.”

Gore ended up carrying the ball 36 times for 130 yards. On the first play from scrimmage for the defense, Yarbrough recalls the defensive line wanting to set the tone. They all fired off the ball like they normally would and ended up face-planting because there was zero traction. After they all knocked the snow out of their face masks, they realized they would need to change their approach. They came to the sideline and got an earful from the defensive line coach.

“Throw everything out that you know! Squat and play side to side,” Yarbrough said. “That’s the last thing you’re ever told as a defensive lineman.”

The game was a slog. Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals that would end up costing him $500,000 in bonuses at the end of the season. The first score came on a Nathan Peterman touchdown pass to Kelvin Benjamin just before the half. Peterman was eventually knocked out of the game with a concussion. Tyrod Taylor was already out with an injury, so Joe Webb had to come in at quarterback. The Colts tied the game up late with a touchdown and forced overtime. After Sean McDermott’s questionable decision to punt late in overtime, Webb came through with the clutch play of the game.

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Webb dropped back and unloaded a deep pass down the right sideline to Deonte Thompson.

“It was like the ball was in the air forever!” Mills said. “I was like, ‘DT. please catch it. Please!'”

Somehow, Thompson twisted and jumped to grab the pass. He came down in a cloud of snow and hung on for a catch. It put the Bills down at the Colts’ 27-yard line with less than two minutes to play in overtime.

“Oh, my goodness!” Yarbrough said. “A bomb! Epic!”

A tie would have buried the Bills’ playoff chances. A few plays later with the clock winding down, the Bills handed the ball to LeSean McCoy. He took it 21 yards for a touchdown, capping a 136-yard effort and giving the Bills a walk-off 13-7 win.

“You couldn’t run,” Lorenzo Alexander said. “It was like a glorified walkthrough. But I don’t know. (McCoy is) like a freak. Everybody else was slowing down, but he looked phenomenal still.”

“He looks forward to those snow games,” Yarbrough said. “He looks amazing in snow. It’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen.”

“My legs were burning trying to get down into the end zone to celebrate with him,” Mills said. “It was a great feeling to have the fans involved in it, especially the guys that were in the front row with no shirts on. I’m pretty sure they had frostbite of some sort after that game. Just to see how the fans stuck it out until the end and to finish it the way we did, it was amazing. You can’t write that. It was a magical ending.”

The Derek Anderson show

Yes, Derek Anderson is starting an NFL game less than two weeks after he was signed out of semi-retirement. An injury to Josh Allen and a disaster performance from Nathan Peterman have forced the 35-year-old into the starting lineup. He has played for Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll in the past, so grasping the offense shouldn’t be a huge challenge, especially if the Bills can simplify things for him.

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“Well, I told him if I can’t see the picture in my brain when I say it, it’s not in,” Anderson said. “By Sunday, I see a picture of an overlay on the field, that visual, if I can’t see it, if I can’t see that picture, I don’t feel comfortable with it, I’m just going to tell him I don’t feel comfortable on that, and he’s okay with that. Obviously, we’re going to have to work through that as we go.

“I’m not a rocket scientist, but I’m pretty smart.”

As Anderson’s old college coach Dennis Erickson pointed out, the speed of the game could be the bigger issue for Anderson this week.

“The mental aspect of it will not be an issue,” Erickson said. “Where to go with the football and what their offense is, he’s done it all. He knows all that stuff mentally. To me, it’s having not played at all, the speed of the game that’s going to happen to him on Sunday. You can play for a lot of years, but if you haven’t played for a long time, the speed of the game, at least at the start of it, will really be interesting for him.”

The key for the Bills will be to incorporate plays that work to Anderson’s strengths (think: play action passing and the quick game) to keep him comfortable early in the game as he adjusts.

The challenge of facing Andrew Luck 

The Bills’ defense has emerged as one of the elite units in the NFL. They shut down Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, slowed down Aaron Rodgers and bottled up DeShaun Watson. Now they face Andrew Luck, who looks like his old self this season with 16 touchdowns in six games. Buffalo’s pass rush has been relentless, but Luck presents a unique challenge. He’s only being pressured on 21.5-percent of his drop-backs, which is near the bottom of the league. Luck is also getting rid of the ball in an average of 2.59 seconds, fifth fastest in the NFL. The best defense against a pass rush like the Bills have is to get rid of the ball quickly. Luck should also have T.Y. Hilton back in the lineup, which will be a welcome addition considering the Colts are dropping more than six percent of Luck’s passes, the second-worst mark in the league, according to SportRadar.

Could Kelvin Benjamin finally come alive?

Kelvin Benjamin’s season high in yardage is 43 yards. He’s struggled in a big way. Maybe Anderson starting at quarterback will be a boost for Benjamin. Here’s a stat to chew on: Anderson started three games with Benjamin in Carolina. In those games, Anderson targeted Benjamin on 30 of his 102 passes. Benjamin caught 23 of those for 266 yards and a touchdown. If Benjamin can’t get rolling with Anderson at quarterback, he might be a lost cause. The Bills might need to move the ball through the air, too. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the Colts have the eighth-ranked run defense in the NFL.

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Prediction: Colts 16, Bills 10

The spread on this game has moved to Colts -7.5. I think the Bills have a chance to cover. Indianapolis isn’t giving the Colts a significant home-field advantage this season, and the Bills’ defense has been suffocating opposing offenses. Luck should still be able to move the ball, especially with Hilton returning to the lineup. But it’s hard to pick a team quarterbacked by Derek Anderson in the year 2018.

(Top photo: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

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Matthew Fairburn

Matthew Fairburn is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Buffalo Sabres. A graduate of the University of Missouri, he previously covered the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills for The Athletic. Prior to The Athletic, he also covered the Bills for Syracuse.com. Follow Matthew on Twitter @MatthewFairburn