The Patriots will enter Soldier Field on a three-game winning streak and their offense has been the catalyst behind their early-season turnaround.
The Bears’ offense is also streaking thanks in large part to the productivity and maturation of quarterback Mitch Trubisky. The second-year starter is in rare company, joining Kirk Cousins and Drew Brees as the only quarterbacks in the league with a 70-plus completion percentage and a 100-plus quarterback rating. His deep ball and aggressiveness to attack down the field has sparked the turnaround.
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Since 2001, Patriots coach Bill Belichick has dominated developing quarterbacks, boasting an 83 percent win percentage in those 64 games. The last time the Bears beat the Patriots was back in 2000, when Tom Brady was a rookie and Trubisky was six years old. Belichick’s formula has been to muddy the quarterback’s pre- and post-snap reads with rotations, while taking away the opponent’s top target.
My hunch tells me that wide receiver Taylor Gabriel will be the player Belichick focuses his defensive efforts on. But given the struggles Patriots linebackers have had in pass coverage this season, there’s an opportunity for the Bears to isolate running back Tarik Cohen and tight end Trey Burton against them in coverage. That tactic on offense, plus the defense not being reluctant to zone out Brady are key aspects to Sunday’s game, which we’ll drop dimes on below.
Tarik Cohen — mismatch machine in the passing game
Cohen has emerged as the versatile weapon many envisioned him being in Matt Nagy’s offense. He’s averaging eight yards per touch this season, but has done the majority of his damage in the passing game.
One of Nagy’s biggest strengths is his ability to understand a defense’s personnel and alignment rules to get players advantageous matchups in coverage. He uses pre-snap motions and shifts to get Trubisky coverage indicators. From there, he’s been masterful the past two weeks in getting Cohen isolated in coverage against linebackers in man coverage.
In this first clip against Tampa Bay, the Bears go with an empty backfield with Cohen split out as the No. 1 receiver to the left. This gets the Bucs to declare their coverage. When Cohen shifts to the backfield, the linebacker follows, giving Trubisky a man coverage indicator. This is a “Texas” concept in which the running back (Cohen) runs an angle route, which is opened up by Burton taking the deep coverage with him on the corner-post route and Gabriel creating the void with the shallow crosser.
Cohen easily breaks leverage against the linebacker creating a simple pitch-and-catch touchdown.
Nagy isolated Cohen against a linebacker again later that game to generate an explosive pass. Again, he uses a pre-snap shift to get a man coverage indicator. Cohen is matched up on a linebacker and runs an out-and-up or a “chair” route up the sideline. Trubisky hits him perfectly in stride, setting up a goal-to-go situation.
Against the Dolphins, Trubisky gets a pre-snap man indicator by the alignment of the slot cornerback to his left, whose hips and eyes are pointed at the receiver and not the quarterback. Post-snap, Trubisky reads a blitzing Kiko Alonso and the other inside linebacker jumping out to cover Cohen, who is running the angle route he ran on the touchdown above. A quick read and an accurate throw gets Cohen the ball in space, as he breaks free for a 50-yard gain.
Nagy will keep that plan of attack going against a Patriots team with a thinned-out group of linebackers who have struggled in coverage. My suspicion is Belichick and de facto defensive coordinator Brian Flores will favor “dime” (six defensive back) personnel packages when Cohen is the single back, to get better coverage. This means the Bears must also be able to run the ball inside with Cohen in order for the passing game matchups to be effective.
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Zoning out Brady
The Patriots run two-man route combinations better than any team in the league, typically with Rob Gronkowski (listed as questionable — back — and didn’t travel with the team Saturday to Chicago) and running back James White. Like the Bears, they also favor empty backfield groupings to get Brady coverage indicators.
Against the Jaguars, Brady notices three men in coverage over two receivers — Gronkowski and White. This is man-coverage indicator that one of the two receivers — likely Gronkowski — will get double coverage. On the passing strength of the formation, there are three defenders over three receivers, another man indicator.
Post-snap, Brady confirms the man coverage and double on Gronkowski, so he works the back-side skinny post to Chris Hogan for a touchdown.
The Patriots offense thrives against man coverage. Receivers like Hogan, Julian Edelman (questionable — heel) and Josh Gordon are all capable of breaking leverage and creating separation when singled up. Thus, the Bears can’t be deterred from playing zone coverage against the Patriots.
Going zone will force the Patriots to stack completions to sustain drives. Brady processes information as well as any quarterback in the league and his offensive line has given up just eight sacks this season. But the Bears pass rush will be a factor this weekend against a crafty, but not mobile Brady in the pocket.
Playing zone comes with a consequence, however. It means the Bears secondary must be sure with their tackling, which was a huge issue last week in Miami. However, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio must switch up his coverages against Brady. He can’t give static looks. Going zone may give up small gains here and there, but a bend but don’t break approach is the right one against Brady.
(Top photo: Steve Mitchell/USA TODAY Sports)