From the classic battle of Offense vs. Defense between the Saints and Ravens to another primetime Chiefs game against the Bengals, there are plenty of great offerings on tap for Week 7. So many in fact, that we added a bonus sixth game to the bottom of this piece because we felt that the matchup between the Jets and the Vikings, complete with some lingering Kirk Cousins animosity, and the NFC East battle between Dallas and Washington both deserved recognition. We start, though, in Philadelphia, with a game that should tell us a lot about what the next few weeks will bring for both the defending champs and the Panthers.
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Carolina (3-2) at Philadelphia (3-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. (ET)
From the Panthers’ side (by Joe Person)
What I’m watching
The Panthers’ remade offensive line has held up remarkably well following the injuries to starting tackles Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams. But they’ll face one of their tougher challenges this week in the Eagles’ front four, which comes at teams in waves. The left side of the Panthers’ line in particular — tackle Chris Clark and guard Greg Van Roten — will have their hands full in keeping DE Derek Barnett (2.5 sacks) and DT Fletcher Cox (4 sacks and a league-leading 15 QB hits) out of QB Cam Newton’s face. Clark and Van Roten allowed key pressures last week at Washington, causing Newton to get hit while he was releasing, resulting in a Josh Norman interception. Van Roten also was beaten on a first-quarter play in which Newton fumbled, although Van Roten did grab the loose ball. In a win versus the Giants in their last game, the Eagles put the kind of pressure on Eli Manning that the Panthers were unable to in their tight 33-31 win over New York. Cox is primarily expected to line up across from Van Roten, although he gave Pro Bowl right guard Trai Turner fits in last year’s game. If Philly gets the pass rush rolling again Sunday at home, it could be a long day for Newton.
The Panthers win if …
They get some big plays, which they’ve been lacking on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 in a 23-17 loss at Washington, leading to 10 points off takeaways for the Redskins. The downfield passing game has been virtually nonexistent. Newton has completed only one pass (in 14 attempts) that has traveled 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Norv Turner said more explosive plays are needed in the passing game, and there could be opportunities against the Eagles’ banged-up secondary — if the protection is sound.
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Super Bowl meter
Last week’s loss at Washington was a big-time downer for a team that has had the look of a playoff club. It will be telling to see how the Panthers respond against the defending Super Bowl champions. Newton wasn’t buying the sky-is-falling talk, saying: “Nobody has ever won a Super Bowl in Week 6, nor has lost a Super Bowl, either. It’s a marathon and we still have our running shoes on.” Beating a good team on the road in a hostile environment would prove the Panthers’ plan is to be in the race for the long haul.
Game prediction
Eagles 24, Panthers 20. If not for a Graham Gano 63-yard field goal against the Giants, the Panthers would be limping into south Philly on a two-game losing streak. Turnovers were the difference when these teams met in Charlotte last season: Newton’s three interceptions led to a couple of short fields for Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense. I think the Panthers will play a cleaner game than they did in ’17 — and a better game than last week in Washington. But ultimately it won’t be quite enough.
From the Eagles’ side (by Sheil Kapadia )
What I’m watching
The Eagles win if …
Jason Peters and Lane Johnson can hold up against the Panthers’ pass rush. When healthy, this is one of the best offensive tackle tandems in the NFL. But Peters is dealing with a quad and biceps injury, and Johnson is battling through an ankle injury. Both players are expected to start, but they’ll be at less than a hundred percent. If the Eagles can give Carson Wentz time, he should have success against this Panthers defense.
Super Bowl meter
The Eagles showed signs of life against the Giants last week. The offensive line was more in sync, Wentz played well, and the defense held Odell Beckham Jr. to just 44 receiving yards, a season low. The Eagles are not yet the team they want to be, but they still have an excellent quarterback and a defensive line that can dominate games. The formula is there for them to string together some wins and create some space in the NFC East.
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Game prediction
Eagles 27, Panthers 24. These two teams played a great game on a Thursday night last season. The chess match between Eagles center Jason Kelce and Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly will be fun for true football nerds. Keep an eye on how Eagles cornerback Ronald Darby deals with big wide receiver Devin Funchess. I think this is a fun back and forth affair that ends with the Eagles edging Carolina by a field goal.
New England (4-2) at Chicago (3-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. (ET)
From the Patriots’ side (by Jeff Howe)
What I’m watching
Bears coach Matt Nagy hails from Andy Reid’s offensive system that has plagued the Patriots for a couple of years. And interestingly, it’s the third consecutive week the Pats have encountered this offense after victories against Frank Reich’s Colts and Reid’s Chiefs. The Pats’ previous pair of opponents have superior offensive talent to the Bears, but crazier things have happened like, you know, Nick Foles. The Patriots’ defense probably wants to get the Chiefs’ 40-point night out of their system with a better showing against the Bears.
The Patriots win if …
Super Bowl meter
Game prediction
Patriots 30, Bears 17. Tom Brady and the offense are beginning to click, and I don’t trust Mitchell Trubisky to go drive for drive with them.
From the Bears’ side (by Kevin Fishbain)
What I’m watching
How will the Bears handle the likes of Julian Edelman and James White in the open field a week after a disastrous display tackling in the open field? As Aaron Rodgers showed in Week 1, and then Brock Osweiler last week, quarterbacks who can get the ball to receivers quickly can have success versus a pretty good Bears defense. Roquan Smith will be part of the defense versus White. He has shown the requisite speed to stick with backs and has made some nice open-field tackles. Bryce Callahan has been outstanding covering the slot. He’s physical and defends the screen well, but Edelman’s route running is a big test.
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In the trenches, Akiem Hicks versus Shaq Mason should be a phenomenal matchup. Hicks has had his way with right guards week after week, but Mason, who signed a massive contract in August, might be his stiffest opponent yet. Even though Khalil Mack missed practice this week, it’s hard to envision him missing his first NFL game ever, but the Bears will still have to rely upon Hicks to pressure Tom Brady from the middle.
On the other side of the ball, it’s Mitchell Trubisky versus the Patriots’ safeties. Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are instinctive and experienced. They’ll be looming if Trubisky makes a mistake.
The Bears win if …
This becomes an old-school, low-scoring matchup. It’s pinning too much on Trubisky to do what Patrick Mahomes did in the second half last Sunday night and go shot for shot with Brady. Yes, the Bears offense has been much better the past two weeks, and Trubisky’s deep ball is working well, but even at home, that’s too big of an ask. This is an important game for Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen to get going so the Bears can own the time of possession battle and avoid third-and-long situations. If both teams can stay under 24 points, which only happens if Chicago’s pass rush and tackling are markedly improved from last week, that’s a game the Bears can absolutely win.
Super Bowl meter
How can a team that lost to Brock Osweiler have any Super Bowl dreams? Seriously? If the Bears knock off the Patriots, fans can start dreaming of Atlanta and they can forget about the Miami debacle, but right now, they have to prove last week was an aberration.
Game prediction
Patriots 26, Bears 17. The defense should be a lot better than what we saw in Miami, and it’ll cause some challenges for Brady, but that Patriots offense has looked too good the past two weeks to think it’ll suddenly stumble Sunday. If Mack is the game-wrecker he can be, an upset is possible, but if Brady stays upright, the Bears would need another memorable game from Trubisky to avoid returning to .500.
Minnesota (3-2-1) at New York Jets (3-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. (ET)
From the Vikings’ side (by Chad Graff)
What I’m watching
The Vikings’ third-down defense, a spot they rank tops again in the NFL, as they’ve limited opponents to conversions only 25 percent of the time. In their win over the Cardinals last week, the Vikings didn’t allow a single third-down conversion on Arizona’s 10 tries. Sunday, they go against a subpar Jets offense that ranks 23rd in third-down percentage. When the Vikings lost a trap game against the Bills in Week 3, Josh Allen and the Bills offense moved the chains on three of their first five third downs en route to a 27-0 lead. If the Vikings are going to avoid a similar fate without looking ahead to a playoff rematch against the Saints awaiting in prime time next week, they’ll need to shut down Sam Darnold and the Jets on third down.
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The Vikings win if …
Their offense continues to hum. They should find plenty of favorable matchups in the passing game (stop me if you’ve heard that before) with the Jets’ 22nd-ranked pass defense trying to cover Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Dalvin Cook will remain out for the Vikings, but their offense doesn’t revolve around the running game and should again rely on Kirk Cousins to try to find holes against the Jets.
Super Bowl meter
Growing with a chance to return to Week 1 heights if they’re able to pull off a third consecutive win before heading back to Minnesota for weeklong chatter about the Minneapolis Miracle.
Game prediction
Vikings 24, Jets 17. The Jets hang around at home, but Cousins connects with Thielen enough to make him the NFL’s first receiver to open a season with seven consecutive games of at least 100 receiving yards, and the Vikings leave New York with a 4-2-1 record.
From the Jets’ side (by Connor Hughes )
What I’m watching
This game is an interesting one for the Jets because it provides a glimpse into both what they have, and what they could have had. The Jets made a very aggressive run at Kirk Cousins in free agency. They actually offered him more money (three years, $90 million fully guaranteed) than Minnesota did. But Cousins signed with the Vikings, conceivably because he believed they were closer to contention. The Jets then traded up in the draft where they eventually landed Sam Darnold.
The Jets win if …
They control the clock. Darnold, while impressive for a rookie, isn’t at a point in his career where he can go pass-for-pass with Kirk Cousins in a shootout, and the defense — potentially without Marcus Maye, Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine — might not do much to help slow Minnesota down. The Jets must dominate the time of possession, wear the Vikings down, and hope Cousins makes a mistake or two to give them extra possessions.
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Super Bowl meter
The Jets honored their 1968 Super Bowl team at halftime of last week’s win over the Colts. It’s the 50th anniversary. That’s about as close as New York will get to a Lombardi Trophy this season. They’re trending in the right direction, but still a year or two away.
Game prediction
Vikings 31, Jets 20: If the Jets were at full strength, maybe they’d have a chance. Cousins could turn in one of his Bad Kirk games, the Jets turn a turnover or two into points, and the offense gets rolling like they did against the Broncos and Colts. But the Jets will be without receiver Quincy Enunwa and safety Maye. Corners Johnson and Skrine, along with receiver Terrelle Pryor, likely won’t play, either. Defensive end Leonard Williams, wideout Robby Anderson, running back Isaiah Crowell and center Spencer Long are ailing. This is the NFL. Anything can happen. But it’s difficult to see the Jets pulling this one out.
New Orleans (4-1) at Baltimore (4-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (ET)
From the Saints’ side (by Larry Holder)
What I’m watching
Drew Brees continues to play as though the prime of his career is endless despite the fact he’s pushing 40. One major reason is the lack of pressure the Saints offensive line allows on Brees. The Saints passer has only been hit 17 times this season, averaging 3.4 hits per game (via Sportradar), and taken eight sacks. Meanwhile, the Saints offense will face the No. 1 defense in the NFL at Baltimore. The Ravens defense leads the NFL in yards per game (270.8), points allowed per game (12.8) and sacks (26). Brees and the Saints offensive line are a smart, savvy bunch. The Ravens will test their mettle Sunday.
The Saints win if …
New Orleans’ defense from Weeks 2, 4 and 5 needs to show up against the Ravens. The Saints surrendered fewer than 20 points in all three of those games (all three wins). Baltimore’s offense might not totally scare anyone, but the Ravens carry capable receivers like Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead. If Cam Jordan, Marcus Davenport and Co. give Joe Flacco too much time, the Saints aren’t universally strong enough on the back end to hold an offense down.
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Super Bowl meter
The Saints entered the season with a slogan “Prove them right,” meaning to live up to the preseason hype after last year’s playoff appearance. New Orleans seems like one of the few teams that’s actually living up to the hype with a 4-1 record. While flawed in some areas, Super Bowl expectations remain about as high as ever.
Game prediction
Ravens 23, Saints 20. Brees hasn’t thrown an interception this season. But you bring the Saints offense on the road and outdoors and wacky things sometimes occur. The Ravens are the only team Brees hasn’t defeated in his NFL career. This shouldn’t slow the Saints down this season, but this could be a team and an environment that might catch up with them.
From the Ravens’ side (by Jeff Zrebiec)
What I’m watching
The Ravens win if …
Super Bowl meter
Game prediction
Ravens 31, Saints 27. Much has been made this week about how the Ravens are the one team that Brees hasn’t beaten in his storied career. That doesn’t figure to mean a heck of a lot come 4 p.m. Sunday, but the Ravens’ home-field advantage should. The Ravens are a confident bunch, they feel they match up reasonably well against the Saints and they are tough to beat at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens defense will give up plenty of ground in this one, but their offense should answer the call.
Cincinnati (4-2) at Kansas City (5-1)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
From the Bengals’ side (by Jay Morrison)
What I’m watching
One week after getting no sacks and just one hit on Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, the onus is going to be on the Cincinnati defensive line to whip the Kansas City offensive line and get pressure on Patrick Mahomes without any help. Blitzing Mahomes would play right into his strength of getting out of the pocket and making plays on the run, and it also would put more stress on an already banged-up group of Cincinnati linebackers and defensive backs.
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The Bengals have struggled to cover even average running backs and tight ends this season, and here come Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce to haunt their dreams.
The Bengals win if …
Joe Mixon needs to get at least 20 carries. Last week Mixon averaged a solid 5.8 yards per carry, but the Bengals only ran him 11 times, resulting in the Steelers dominating the time of possession. If the Chiefs have the ball for 35 minutes Sunday night, they could put up 50. The Bengals are 43-1-2 when scoring at least 25 points since 2011, and that seems like an ideal target Sunday night, somewhere in the 25 to 28 range. Riding Mixon and running the clock will be their best chance of avoiding a wild shootout in the upper 30s, something that probably won’t end well for them.
Super Bowl meter
The Bengals are 1-16 in prime-time road games under Marvin Lewis, including 0-7 on “Sunday Night Football.” The last time they won a Sunday night road game was 1992. If they pull this one off against a 5-1 Chiefs team, it won’t come with a Lombardi Trophy, but there damn well should be a parade.
Game prediction
Chiefs 38, Bengals 30. The Bengals will keep pace and make this interesting, but it doesn’t feel like a game they can win. The defense is struggling to get consistent pressure and has failed to force a turnover in three of the last four games. If Mahomes is comfortable all night, it could turn into a rout.
From the Chiefs’ side (by Nate Taylor)
What I’m watching
The Bengals shouldn’t really overthink their game plan: keep giving the ball to running back Joe Mixon. The Chiefs defense has proved to not be formidable against the run. The Bengals should try to accomplish what the Patriots did last week in possessing the ball for 36 minutes. With such a strategy, the Bengals could limit the big-play opportunities for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Another element is that the Chiefs have struggled to tackle physical running backs who have burst when running through the line of scrimmage. Inside linebackers Anthony Hitchens (groin) and Reggie Ragland (left knee) are playing through nagging injuries, and their play has suffered for a defense that is relying heavily on them. The Patriots ran for 173 yards against the Chiefs. The Bengals should have similar production if they hope to win inside Arrowhead Stadium.
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The Chiefs win if …
Balance for the Chiefs offense could be instrumental. The offense will likely produce more highlights against the Bengals, but coach Andy Reid must give running back Kareem Hunt more than the 10 attempts he had last week. Hunt, in a quiet manner, has played well next to Mahomes. Hunt has recorded 456 rushing yards for an average of 4.4 yards per carry. He is also the fourth-leading receiver with 171 yards. The offense could help the defense with a few more methodical drives against the Bengals to flip the game’s time of possession in the Chiefs’ favor. If the Chiefs are leading in the second half, Hunt should be given the opportunity to run the ball to take time off the clock and to extend the team’s advantage on the scoreboard.
Super Bowl meter
The weather in Kansas City is changing this month from warm to breezy to chilly. The heat index of the Chiefs — smoldering after last week’s loss — should remain the same after Sunday’s game.
Game prediction
Chiefs 35, Bengals 30. The Chiefs are still an injured group, but last week’s game showed us that Mahomes is more than capable of carrying the team to victory. He’ll likely need to do such against the Bengals. The Chiefs have too many weapons and it’s unlikely that the Bengals forced enough turnovers to keep them from putting touchdowns on the scoreboard. Expect tight end Travis Kelce to be exceptional if the Chiefs’ makeshift offensive line provides enough time for Mahomes to connect with one of his favorite targets. In just two home games so far this season, the Chiefs defense has played well, in particular in the first half when the offense has built sizable leads. Another key subplot is that the Chiefs special teams unit continues to make winning plays.
*BONUS*: Dallas (3-3) at Washington (3-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (ET)
From the Cowboys’ side (by Calvin Watkins)
What I’m watching
Washington has the ninth-best run defense and Dallas has the second-best rushing offense in the NFL. So the 3-4 front against the Cowboys offensive line is key. One of the struggles with rookie left guard Connor Williams is strength. The Cowboys want Williams to gain 20 pounds in the offseason, but for now he’s 310 pounds and he’ll get some help when matching up against rookie nose tackle Daron Payne. The Cowboys need to get off the ball quick against this Washington front especially when reaching the second level on blocks. Zack Martin has struggled at getting to the linebackers at times this season, and inside run plays might be an adventure for the visitors.
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The Cowboys win if …
Super Bowl meter
Unless the Rams, Saints, Bears and Packers fold, the Cowboys and Super Bowl talk isn’t worth a discussion.
Game prediction
Dallas 27, Washington 14. The Cowboys are 0-3 on the road this season, and communication is a big problem here. They even held a meeting about it. Dallas swept last season’s series against Washington and has scored 30 or more points in the last three matchups between these two teams, all Dallas victories. Expect another victory this time.
From the Washington side (by Tarik El-Bashir)
What I’m watching
In three career games versus Washington, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for an average of 110 yards and scored five touchdowns. He also hasn’t suffered a loss.
On Sunday, though, Elliott won’t find the Skins defense so accommodating.
The Redskins run defense has vaulted from 32nd in the NFL a year ago to sixth through five games in 2018 thanks to the addition of first-rounder Daron Payne, the return of a healthy Jonathan Allen and the emergence of Matt Ioannidis along the line. The unit has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season and last week limited Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey to a season-low 20 yards.
Washington’s run defense is easily the team’s biggest area of improvement year over last, and their ability (or inability) to contain Elliott will be the key Sunday.
On offense, the Redskins must get a sharper performance from quarterback Alex Smith, who has completed less than 60 percent of his pass attempts in each of the past two games. Smith will have to do it without receiver Jamison Crowder, who’s been ruled out for a second week due to an ankle injury, and possibly minus wide out Paul Richardson, who is doubtful because of a nagging knee issue.
The Redskins win if …
In addition to slowing Elliott, the Redskins also need to find a modicum of consistency if they hope to return to the playoffs. Through five games, Jay Gruden and Co. have won, lost, won, lost and won. Even in a weak division, that’s not good enough.
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By most accounts, the Redskins had a solid week of preparation ahead of their division opener. But now comes the hard part: transferring that focus and attention to detail to the grass at FedEx Field and stringing together consecutive wins for the first time since Weeks 15 and 16 of last season.
Super Bowl meter
What’s that? Super Bowl? Don’t talk about … Super Bowl? You kidding me? Super Bowl? In Washington, we’re just hoping the Redskins can win back-to-back games.
Game prediction
Redskins 21, Cowboys 17. The Redskins have lost the last four meetings overall in this bitter rivalry. At home, their last win over the Cowboys came during Robert Griffin III’s rookie year way back in 2012, a span of six games. But the losing streak ends Sunday. The Redskins defense will keep Elliott from running wild, while the Smith-led offense will manage to do just enough against Dallas’ stingy defense.
(Top photo: Jeremy Brevard / USA Today Sports)