With William Nylander’s contract negotiations still unresolved, it’s understandable why tensions are high in Leafs nation right now. A bridge deal is looking like a legitimate possibility at this point, resulting in even more trade speculation surrounding the young Swede. It’s a stressful time for all those involved — which includes fans — making it difficult to take a step back and analyze the situation in an objective manner, but that’s my goal today. In an unbiased manner, I want to answer the question: “just how good is William Nylander?”
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Our passion for hockey is what unites us all. It’s the reason we put so much time and effort into keeping up with our favourite team every year, even when we know they’re eventually going to let us down (something Leafs fans understand very well). The trouble is that when you’re so emotionally invested in something, you’re more likely think about it irrationally, forming opinions that deviate from logic or evidence.
It’s unavoidable (we’re only human after all), but I feel like this is where a lot of Leafs fans are right now with Nylander. I think the combination of recency bias and the circumstances surrounding his contract negotiations have drastically altered our perception of him, resulting in a lot of us undervaluing him as a player.
If I’m going to make that argument, I better back it up with some evidence, so here we go. Let’s start with the most common way of evaluating forwards.
Point production
When we’re looking at Nylander’s offensive contributions, I think there’s a tendency to focus on his point totals and ignore how little ice time he’s been allotted compared to his peers. Star wingers who produce at his rate are typically given at least 18 or 19 minutes of ice time per game, with no less than three minutes a night on the power play.
As you can see from the visual above, Nylander’s barely been getting two minutes of power play time per night and a hair over 16 total minutes throughout his first two seasons, which has suppressed his point totals. For example, if he was given as many minutes as Johnny Gaudreau during his contract year (2015-16), Nylander would have scored well over 70 points.
This is why I prefer looking at points per 60 minutes; it gives you a much better idea of how well that player is producing, independent of ice time. With that in mind, let’s break down Nylander’s scoring rate at even strength throughout his career.
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5v5 point production
William Nylander: 2.04 Points per 60 (2016-18)
Mitch Marner: 2.06 Points per 60 (2016-18)
Despite the drastic difference in how the two are being talked about right now, Mitch Marner and Nylander have actually scored at about the same rate at 5-on-5 since entering the league. It’s crazy what recency bias can do to distort our perception.
Now, it’s important to note that Nylander has played the majority of his NHL career with Auston Matthews, but at the same time, we can’t forget that Marner spent most of his shifts against sheltered competition, with an extremely talented finisher (James van Riemsdyk) and an underrated offensive player (Tyler Bozak). When you combine the competition and teammate effects, I think it’s fair to say that the two players have had similar usage over the past two seasons, and nearly identical production at even strength.
You might be wondering how good 2.04 or 2.06 Points per 60 is in the grand scheme of things. To help give you an idea of just how impressive it is, we’re going to look at their closest comparables since 2016.
Any time you’re in the same neighbourhood as Sidney Crosby and ahead of players like Taylor Hall or John Tavares, you know that you’re doing something right.
The other player I wanted to bring up was Blake Wheeler. Much like Nylander, he’s had the benefit of playing with some great linemates (Scheifele at centre and either Nik Ehlers, Patrick Laine, or Kyle Connor on his wing). The difference is that he’s been getting over 20 minutes a night for the past three seasons, and as a result, has produced at a point-per-game rate throughout that stretch.
Nylander has actually scored more points per minute at 5v5 than Wheeler over that time span, he just hasn’t been given the ice time. This is something I think we tend to overlook when we’re evaluating forwards. We’re so focused on point totals, we forget that players who get more minutes will naturally produce more points, even if they’re not necessarily scoring at as high of a rate.
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5v4 point production
This is another area that I’ve found people tend to underrate Nylander. When you look at his power play production since entering the league, he’s in some pretty elite company.
On a per-minute basis, Nylander has scored at a higher rate on the power play than Nicklas Backstrom, Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid. I know how jarring it is to hear that (I was just as surprised when I looked it up), but it makes sense when you think about it. Most of us don’t see Nylander as an elite power play point producer because he doesn’t have the elite point totals. That has nothing to do with his ability, it’s a product of opportunity.
Despite scoring at a ridiculous rate on the power play, Nylander has only received 48 percent of his team’s power play time. When you compare that to a player like Crosby (who gets over 70 percent), you can understand why Nylander isn’t putting up as many power play points. This isn’t to say that it’s necessarily the “wrong” decision in Toronto – Marner has actually scored at a higher rate on the power play over the past two seasons – but one thing remains clear: Nylander’s point totals don’t accurately reflect his talent.
Here’s a quick breakdown of that talent to help explain how he’s been able to score at such a high rate with the man advantage.
With a release like that, opposing penalty killers need to respect his shot from the top of the circle. Most teams are fine giving up a strong side wrist shot from that location since it’s typically a low-percentage shot. You can’t do that with Nylander.
If you give him that much space, he’ll walk in and pick the corner. The threat of that lethal wrister often results in defences overcommitting to his shot on the power play, which helps open up a passing lane through the middle of the ice. Taking away his shot does not necessarily limit Nylander’s effectiveness as the clip below shows.
He’s so good at skating in from the right side, looking like he’s going to shoot it, then ripping a seam pass to the other side of the ice. I’ve talked about these “Royal Road” passes before (they have a shooting percentage over 25 percent on the power play), and Nylander’s one of the best in the league at getting them off.
With his wrist shot, deceptive passing ability, and high-end pucks skills, Nylander is one of the most dangerous power-play weapons in the league. Don’t be fooled by his point totals – they’re elite for someone who’s been splitting power play time.
Combining the 5v5 and 5v4 production
When you look at players who are in the same neighbourhood as Nylander when it comes to both 5v5 and 5v4 scoring rate, it’s a list of some pretty special offensive talents.
You have some pretty big names here, including the criminally underrated Mikael Grandlund, not to mention the criminally underpaid Nazem Kadri. The only player on this list that might give you some pause is van Riemsdyk, whose ability to transition the puck up the ice at 5v5 leaves a lot to be desired (we’ll get into this soon and why it’s such an area of strength in Nylander’s game).
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When it comes to point production, though, Nylander has clearly been an elite scorer since entering the league. He’s actually scored at a higher rate than Jack Eichel at both 5v5 and 5v4 – the difference is that one player has been playing over 20 minutes per game since 2016, while the other has been getting about 16.
There are some obvious teammate effects in play (it’s much easier to score alongside Auston Matthews than Sam Reinhart), but I think the take-home point here is that we tend to focus too much on raw point totals. They’re largely a product of opportunity (time on ice per game), which is why I prefer looking at points per 60, where Nylander ranks among the league’s elite scorers.
With that being said, we all know there’s more to hockey than just point production, so let’s dive into how Nylander impacts the game in other ways.
Zone entries
The ability to enter the offensive zone with possession might be the most underrated skill in the NHL today. The research has proven that you generate twice as much offence with a controlled entry (carry-in) than you do with an uncontrolled entry (dump-in), which is why those highly skilled zone entry wizards are so valuable.
If you’re looking for more proof that zone entries really matter, here’s a look last season’s Top 10 in the NHL at Controlled Entries per 60.
Those are some of the most electrifying forwards in hockey … and Nick Schmaltz (who I would argue is extremely underrated at even strength). These guys are incredible at slicing through the neutral zone and getting into the offensive zone with possession and it’s a large part of the reason their teams generate so much offence when they’re on the ice.
As you might have guessed, this is an area where Nylander also excels.
Over the last two seasons, Nylander is in the 97th percentile of controlled zone entries. That’s the highest on his team – higher than Marner (90th percentile), Matthews (85th percentile), and Kadri (85th percentile). This might come as a surprise to some fans, but it makes sense when you consider the fact that he’s able to consistently make plays like this:
(Big thanks to Dylan Fremlin for letting me withdraw from his Nylander GIF bank)
With Nylander’s combination of speed and skill, he’s able to fly up the ice with possession and force opposing defences to back off. Defenders know that if they try to step up on him at the blueline, there’s a good chance they’ll get beat for an odd-man rush. That gives Nylander the space to enter the offensive zone with possession, where he’s usually looking to make a pass to his favourite target.
That goal doesn’t happen if you dump the puck in, and it’s why players like Nylander are so valuable.
Zone exits
Not only is he great at getting into the offensive zone, Nylander’s also fantastic at transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone. This is an area where the Leafs really struggled last season (and in the playoffs). In fact, they ranked dead last in controlled zone exit percentage last season, which is pretty embarrassing for a team with as many elite puck-carriers as Toronto. These breakout struggles help explain how a team with so much talent ended up getting outshot at 5v5 last season (49.4 CF%).
The zone exits are an area where I’d argue the team is still struggling right now, which isn’t surprising considering they’re missing their best forward at breaking the puck out with possession.
As you can see, most of Nylander’s zone exits are a result of carrying the puck out himself. In fact, only a handful of players carried the puck out of the DZ with possession more often than him in 2017-18, and they’re mostly guys who finished in the top 10 of controlled zone entries (Eichel, Mackinnon, McDavid, Hall, Gaudreau, Kane, Ehlers, Draisaitl, and Barzal).
We’re talking about an incredibly talented puck-handler who’s one of the best in the league at transitioning the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone.
Most of us can see that Nylander has the talent slice through a neutral zone trap and create offence, but it’s his ability to get out of his own end with possession that I think we tend to forget about. He’s essentially a one-man breakout.
He reminds me of an elite puck-moving defencemen when he gets the puck in his own zone. His ability to make quick cuts on his edges helps him get away from opposing forecheckers, opening up space to either skate the puck out himself (his usual choice) or make a pass to an open player up the ice.
It’s subtle-yet-great plays like these that get the puck going in the right direction, and he makes them pretty consistently.
Overall 5v5 impact
Nylander’s ability to transition the puck up the ice so effectively is a large part of the reason the Leafs spend more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone when he’s on the ice.
This is a simplistic breakdown, but it demonstrates that the Leafs outshoot the opposition when Nylander is on the ice. A more sophisticated model like EvolvingWild’s RAPM can help us isolate a player’s impact on shot differentials by adjusting for their usage (ie. teammates, zone starts, score effects, etc.). According to this model, Nylander has been one of the better players in the league at tilting the ice in his team’s favour.
Here are some notable players with a similar impact to Nylander over the past few seasons.
To give you an idea of where he stacks up on his own team, here’s a look at each active Maple Leaf in this metric over the past three seasons.
You’re probably asking yourself “why are Matthews and Marner so low on the list?” Well, it’s worth noting that Matthews has an other-worldly impact on shot quality in the offensive zone (which is what makes him such a special player), while Marner’s ridiculous passing ability helps his line sustain a high shooting percentage when he’s on the ice. If we’re strictly talking about shot differentials, though, Nylander has actually done a better job than both of them at tilting the ice in his team’s favour.
One way the model determines this is by looking at how well players do with and without a certain player. For example, when Marner was replaced by Connor Brown on Toronto’s third line last year, they kept playing well.
Compare this to the Matthews line with and without Nylander over the past two seasons.
We tend to forget this, but Matthews has really struggled driving play without his Swedish partner in crime. Now, Nylander hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire without Matthews (they tend to bring out the best in each other), but I’ve found that a lot of analysts have been claiming the Leafs’ first line doesn’t need Nylander to be successful.
Based on the evidence, that’s simply not true.
We’re obviously dealing with small samples, but it’s worth noting that Matthews has consistently spent more time in the defensive zone than the offensive zone so far this season, he’s been outchanced at 5v5, and he’s even getting outscored. To put it frankly, his line absolutely needs Nylander.
This isn’t to take anything away from Kasperi Kapanen, who’s done as good a job as he can replacing the star right winger. His speed has definitely helped the line generate more odd-man rushes and clean zone entries. The issue is that they’ve been struggling to move the puck out of the defensive zone with possession, which is a big part of the reason they’ve spent so many shifts hemmed in their own end.
As much as I love Kapanen, he doesn’t have Nylander’s elite puck skills to wiggle out of tough situations in the defensive zone. With that being said, he’s a much more useful player in transition than Patrick Marleau.
Marleau’s transition game fell off a cliff last season, and based on the eye test this year, it doesn’t appear to be getting any better at age 39. This leads me to believe that a Kapanen-Matthews-Nylander combination would be much more effective.
As currently constructed, Toronto’s first line just isn’t getting it done without Nylander. You can’t keep getting outshot, outchanced and outscored with Auston Matthews on the ice, if you want to contend. He’s one of the best players in the league when he gets into the offensive zone, but he’s been having trouble getting there without Nylander’s elite transition game (which has been a consistent trend throughout his career).
When we strip away our biases and look at the evidence, it seems pretty clear that Toronto’s top line needs Nylander to succeed.
At the end of the day, we come back to the original question: How good is William Nylander?
Well, he’s an elite point producer who hasn’t been getting as much ice time as forwards who produce at a similar rate; he’s one of the best transition players in the game; he consistently tilts the ice in his team’s favour; and his line (spear-headed by Auston Matthews) has been really struggling in certain aspects of the game without him.
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As much as certain media outlets may try to push the narrative that Nylander is expendable, all of the evidence seems to indicate otherwise. There aren’t too many forwards who can lead their team in controlled zone exits, finish above the 95th percentile of controlled zone entries, score over 2.0 points per 60 at 5v5 and over 5.0 points per 60 at 5v4. In fact, there are six:
- Mathew Barzal
- Taylor Hall
- Patrick Kane
- Nikita Kucherov
- Evgeni Malkin
- William Nylander
When a team drafts a player of this calibre, they typically aren’t looking to trade him. There’s one obvious example in recent memory, and we all know how it turned out.
Now, I don’t think anyone expects Nylander to ever win the Hart Trophy, but he’s a much closer comparable to Hall than most people realize. Both are phenomenal players in transition and actually produced at a similar rate when you look at Hall’s last two years in Edmonton.
If Hall-for-Larsson has taught us anything, it’s that you shouldn’t trade a star winger for a top four RHD on a good contract (which is exactly what’s being floated around right now with the Brett Pesce rumours). Unless you’re getting a defenceman of similar age and value in return (ie. the Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones trade), it’s typically wise to hold onto your elite young talent.
At this point, I hope I’ve presented enough evidence to prove that Nylander fits that description. He’s the type of game-changing talent that teams lock up and build around as a core piece. Here’s hoping the contract drama ends soon so we can go back to appreciating how special of a player Nylander is.
(Top photo credit: Chris Young/The Canadian Press via AP)