Reading coverage from around the league on how contenders are either weighing whether they should stop fussing around about financial limitations and just pony up for Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado already, or perhaps noting how perfectly Marwin González fits on their team, it’s easy to wonder whether expectations for how much the White Sox can accomplish this offseason should be tempered.
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But then a rundown of projected 2019 opening day payrolls shows the Sox with fewer meaningful commitments than any other team in baseball. Two seasons of stripping away all veterans extraneous to their long-term aims have left them with a roster in which the closest thing to a bad contract is that of Welington Castillo, who will make $7.25 million to take around half of the reps at catcher.
That can be a leaping-off point to get very experimental in mapping an offseason plan, which I hope to do more next week, but for now is something to weigh when checking out who is on the margins of the Sox roster going into 2019. Jason Martinez of MLB Depth Charts updated the White Sox count of minor league options and Rule 5 statuses going into the offseason, and the assumption generally holds true that anyone that is out of options or iffy for Rule 5 protection when the roster is in this state would figure to either be on their way out, or about to push someone else out.
Juan Minaya’s White Sox future was probably in doubt when he burned his last option in April, but he turned things around to become one of the team’s best relievers in the second half. Yolmer Sánchez has been out of options for a couple seasons now, but has staked out a slot for himself, and figures to slide in as a primary utilityman even if the White Sox don’t want him to start 139 games at third again. The crunch occurs in the fact that Leury García has also been out of options for a while, and is now joined by José Rondón (newly out of options) and Ryan LaMarre. It’s hard to envision the Sox turning the ship to avoid letting the soon-to-be 30-year-old LaMarre hit waivers if he doesn’t make the team next spring — it seems more likely that he’s outrighted for 40-man space this winter. But even aside from that, literally any offseason addition would likely force them to decide whether they were impressed enough by Rondón’s power outburst to move on from hoping that first-half-of-2017 form García showed returns if he’s healthy. Normal teams don’t have three utilitymen.
The younger option with louder offensive tools seems like the logical path forward for a rebuilding team, which carries over to the catching situation, where the Sox have run out of years they can freely carry Kevan Smith (also out of options now) as a third catcher on standby in the minors. Castillo is on board for 2019, Omar Narváez just had an offensive breakout and Seby Zavala needs to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. The latter didn’t look ready for the majors by the end of 2018, but “third catcher” is a more palatable spot to have someone grow into the position than “No. 4 starter.” The White Sox are the only organization that the 30-year-old Smith has ever known, and he would sure love to stay after putting together a 104 wRC+ season (just as strong as the out-of-options Matt Davidson, who figures to get more plate appearances at DH). But the Sox didn’t use his framing as a reason to vault him over the rest of the group last year, and at this point in his career, he probably wouldn’t lament it too much if a more sustained opportunity to stick in the majors came along.
Despite three years now of Carson Fulmer bouncing between minor league struggles and fleeting major league optimism, he’ll also only be entering his fifth professional season, so he is likely to have a fourth option year. That allowed the Sox to be more decisive in discerning that he was not fit to stay in the major league rotation by mid-May, knowing they were not setting him up in a spot where he would need to be capable of sticking in the majors — now as a reliever — by opening day 2019 or be subject to waivers. He didn’t experience a jump in stuff in a short relief role that would mitigate his command shortcomings, but maybe an offseason of preparation can change that. Lucas Giolito (also one option left) won’t be in that situation either thanks to the Sox sticking with him in the majors through a grueling 2018, and is likely a lock to open 2019 in the rotation anyway.
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Ironically, both dropped their realistic ceilings significantly enough in 2018 that hoarding their options has decreased in priority. With Dane Dunning, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech ideally ready for the rotation in 2020 and the White Sox either trying to contend or just dedicating fewer roster spots to guys learning on the job by then, that season acting as a deadline for when Fulmer and Giolito will either be ready to contribute reliably or be at risk of leaving the organization seems fitting.
Because 2019 figures to be another year of worrying more about who can show they are long-term pieces than how functional and effective the roster is, assessing how the Sox replace their outgoing free agents isn’t the series of vital questions it is for other teams. James Shields (eating over 200 innings however unglamorously) and Héctor Santiago (eating over 100 with even less glamor) had large impacts in keeping the 2018 team running and operating, but considering that was never the priority, just something that needed to be done, whether they’ll be retained to help do it again in 2019 reads as a lower priority than figuring out which young players will get another shot to prove useful at all. Santiago could get brought back and even land a guaranteed deal this time given he’s healthy, and Shields could return even after his $16 million option is inevitably declined, but that figures to wait until after the 40-man roster picture is settled in November.
That none of the trio of Jordan Stephens, Spencer Adams and Jordan Guerrero –all of whom need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to be protected from the Rule 5 draft –were given a big-league audition doesn’t lend much confidence that the Sox anticipate them shouldering much of the innings load. If a rebuilding club with open rotation slots is iffy about committing to them, and they do no project higher than end-of-rotation starters going forward, perhaps they’re not at the imminent risk of leaving in the Rule 5 they’ve been seen to be in the past.
Last year the Sox added the Rule 5 eligible Micker Adolfo to the 40-man to protect against the growing trend of extreme upside plays by teams like the Padres, who were willing to carry a woefully unprepared prospect plucked straight from the low minors in order to nab a meaningful talent. Cease and the recently acquired Kodi Medeiros are obvious additions to the 40-man, but rather than the trio of Triple-A starters, I wonder increasingly about guys like second baseman Amado Nuñez, who torched rookie ball at the age of 20, much like Allen Córdoba did before the Padres plucked him away from the Cardinals in the Rule 5, or even 23-year-old right-hander Luis Martinez, whose 6-foot-6 frame is appealing even if he was still just in Winston-Salem this past season.
Whether it’s free agency, managing players out of options or protecting against the Rule 5 draft, hoarding players with the most potential for long-term impact seems like the guiding principle.
(Top photo: Andy King/Getty Images)