Why Slovakia and Romania can play for a draw to secure Euro 2024 qualification

(COMBO) This combination of pictures created on June 24, 2024 shows Romania's midfielder #18 Razvan Marin celebrating scoring his team's second goal during the UEFA Euro 2024 Group E football match between Romania and Ukraine at the Munich Football Arena in Munich on June 17, 2024, and Slovakia's forward #26 Ivan Schranz celebrating scoring the opening goal during the UEFA Euro 2024 Group E football match between Slovakia and Ukraine at the Duesseldorf Arena in Duesseldorf on June 21, 2024. Slovenia faces Romania during the UEFA Euro 2024 group E football match on June 26, 2024. (Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ and KENZO TRIBOUILLARD / AFP) (Photo by TOBIAS SCHWARZKENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP via Getty Images)
By Colin Millar
Jun 26, 2024

The group stages of the European Championship conclude on Wednesday with Group E and Group F yet to be finalised.

Group E is particularly notable as all four teams are level on three points going into the final round of matches, with none of the sides yet qualified for the round-of-16 stage or eliminated from the tournament.

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Belgium play Ukraine in Stuttgart while Romania take on Slovakia in Frankfurt. Both matches will kick off simultaneously, at 5pm BST (6pm local).

The top two teams from the group will automatically qualify for the last 16 while the bottom-placed side will be eliminated from the tournament. The third-placed side will qualify for the knockout stages should they be one of the top four best-ranked sides to finish third from the six groups.

The third-placed side from Group E appears favourably placed to advance, with Group B’s third-placed Croatia registering just two points — while all Group E sides have already surpassed that total.

In Group F, third-placed Czech Republic currently have just two points going into their final match against Turkey. If the third-placed side in Group E finishes on four points, they will advance to the knockouts. If they finish on three points but a goal difference better than -3 — that of Hungary, the third-placed side from Group A — they will advance.

What that all crucially means is that if Slovakia and Romania draw, both sides will be guaranteed of a top-three group finish on four points and progression through to the round of 16.

Slovakia's opening match win over Belgium has given them hopes of group stage progress (THOMAS KIENZLE/AFP via Getty Images)
Slovakia’s opening match win over Belgium has given them hopes of group-stage progress (Thomas Kienzle/AFP via Getty Images)

The same cannot be said of Belgium’s match against Ukraine, as Sergiy Rebrov’s side are currently bottom of Group E on goal difference and if both games ended in draws, they would be eliminated. If Ukraine lost but still finished third, they may be eliminated on goal difference (theirs is currently -2).

Both Slovakia and Romania’s managers, however, have stated their teams will try and win their group in order to advance to the knockouts.

“We want to win the group,” Romania’s Edward Iordanescu said. “If we win the group at least theoretically you have a certain advantage, especially in terms of extra rest days and also of the opponents.

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“But the most important thing is to qualify, this is what our objective is.”

Slovakia boss Francesco Calzona, meanwhile, said: “We are professionals. We know that the draw might help us to qualify for the last 16, but that doesn’t mean anything because we want to play our own match.

“We deserve this opportunity to progress as we have played good football.”

What is the pathway for Group E teams?

The group winners play will play a third-placed team from a selection of Hungary, Slovenia or the Netherlands, depending on the results in Group F.

The team that comes second place will face the runners-up in Group D, World Cup finalists France.

And the third-place side will play the winners of Group B or C — Spain or England.

Have teams helped each other qualify in international tournaments before?

It is rare that two opposition teams can both secure group qualification with a mutually beneficial result, but there is precedent for such events.

The most infamous example came in the 1982 World Cup between West Germany and Austria, in a match that became known as the ‘Disgrace of Gijon’. If West Germany won by one or two goals, both they and Austria would advance.

West Germany scored in the first 10 minutes with little action thereafter, with most of the second half played at a near-standstill. Both teams were booed and whistled inside the stadium, while Algeria — who were eliminated as a result of West Germany’s 1-0 victory — lodged an ultimately unsuccessful complaint with FIFA.

There have also been sporadic examples of similar scenarios in the European Championship. In Euro 1996, a 1-0 win for Italy over Germany would have seen both teams progress to the next round, but Gianfranco Zola missed an early penalty for Italy and the game ended 0-0. Italy were eliminated, with Czech Republic instead progressing.

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Italy were on the wrong side of things again eight years later, as they were eliminated following a 2-2 draw between Denmark and Sweden on the final matchday. Each of the three teams finished on five points, but Matias Jonson’s last-minute equaliser for Sweden ensured Italy were eliminated courtesy of their inferior goal difference.

Italy once again faced a similar situation eight years later in 2012, when a final day 2-2 group draw between Croatia and Spain would have seen Italy eliminated. However, Jesus Navas scored an 88th-minute winning goal for Spain, who advanced alongside Italy.

Which nations can qualify through third-placed group finishes?

Slovenia players celebrated their third-placed finish qualification (Emin Sansar/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Slovenia players celebrated their third-placed finish qualification (Emin Sansar/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Hungary finished third in Group A after their late victory over Scotland, but risk being eliminated due to their -3 goal difference.

Group B’s third-placed side Croatia have already been eliminated after finishing with two points in their group, while Group C’s Slovenia have sealed qualification due to their superior goal difference (0) to Hungary.

Netherlands finished as the third-placed team from Group D, after they lost to Austria on Tuesday.

In Group E, Belgium, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine are currently tied on three points each, while Group F sees Turkey, Czech Republic and Georgia all still able to finish third.

(Top photo: Tobias Schwarz, Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images)

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Colin Millar

Colin Millar is a Staff Writer for The Athletic. Prior to joining The Athletic, Colin was European Football writer at Mirror Football. From Belfast, he is the author of The Frying Pan of Spain: Sevilla vs Real Betis, Spain’s Hottest Football Rivalry, and he can be found on Twitter/X: @Millar_Colin Follow Colin on Twitter @Millar_Colin