By Ken Rosenthal, Patrick Mooney and Katie Woo
MLB trade deadline watch is a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.
The White Sox in recent weeks have assigned top scouts to focus on the Padres’, Dodgers’ and Mariners’ farm systems, according to sources briefed on the scouts’ movements. All three of those clubs have shown interest in multiple White Sox players, but are far from the only ones engaged with Chicago on potential trades.
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Still, the White Sox’s scouting activity might be a tipoff to how they will approach the deadline. If they lean on field scouts, it means they likely want prospects with big tools. The Padres, Dodgers and Mariners all have those types of players in considerable supply.
As previously reported, White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet is a Padres target. Reliever Michael Kopech and outfielder Tommy Pham are among the other potential fits, and Padres GM A.J. Preller remains aggressive — or is it impatient? — in discussions.
The Dodgers also like Crochet as well as center fielder Luis Robert Jr., major-league sources said. The Mariners, whose combined outfield OPS ranks 23rd in the majors, clearly could use Robert. But unless Robert gets hot, the White Sox fear that if they trade him at the deadline, they will be selling low.
Robert, who turns 27 on Aug. 3, missed nearly two months with a right hip flexor strain. Through Sunday, he had batted only .191 with a .265 on-base percentage since returning. His seven home runs boosted his OPS to .737, but he has been inconsistent, not a game-changer.
All that can change in the next month, but Robert’s frequent injuries, low walk and high strikeout rates are a concern for interested clubs.
Teams likely will want to see more before giving up what the White Sox want for a player who last season hit 38 homers and stole 20 bases. Robert is owed the balance of his $12.5 million salary in 2024 and $15 million in ’25. His deal also includes $20 million club options for 2026 and ’27.
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MLB trade target tiers: Ranking 92 hitters, starters and relievers who could be available
Will A.J. Preller deal Padres’ top prospects?
While a number of people in the game are speculating that Preller is trying to bolster his roster to save his job, what would be the difference between this supposedly desperate version of Preller and the way he normally acts as GM?
One litmus test for Preller will be whether he moves Leodalis De Vries, a 17-year-old shortstop whom the Padres signed out of the Dominican Republic last January for $4.2 million.
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De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are thought to be as close to untouchable as any players in the Padres’ system. The Padres are telling clubs they do not want to trade them. But in the case of De Vries, is it possible Preller is taking that stance only to whet the appetite of interested clubs? As Preller previously has shown, if he can acquire the right player, no prospect is off-limits.
In his 2nd pro game, 17-year-old Leodalis DeVries is quickly racking up 1sts:
✔️ 1B
✔️ SB
✔️ 2B@Padres | @Storm_Baseball pic.twitter.com/9Xj0C7riri— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 24, 2024
Juan Soto was an example. To get him, Preller parted with left-hander MacKenzie Gore and outfielder James Wood, among others. Dylan Cease was another highly desired target. Preller initially balked at including right-hander Drew Thorpe in that deal, according to a source briefed on the discussions, but eventually relented.
As things stand, no player the caliber of Soto or even Cease figures to be available at the deadline. The Padres have other players of interest, including left-hander Robby Snelling and righties Dylan Lesko and Adam Mazur. But Preller, following the death of late Padres owner Peter Seidler, is working under new bosses. How that influences his behavior remains to be seen.
Potential starting pitching targets dwindle
The fallout from the Angels’ Patrick Sandoval and Marlins’ Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett all hitting the injured list over the weekend?
The demand for starting pitchers is virtually certain to exceed the supply, so teams will need to figure out internal solutions.
The Guardians, for example, are discussing how to best keep their own pitchers healthy and effective while developing creative options in their own system, according to sources briefed on their thinking.
That’s not to say the Guardians will give up on trying to add a starter. But even if they do, they will need additional help. Righty Gavin Williams, out all season with elbow inflammation, is expected back by next week. Lefty Joey Cantillo, a prospect who recently returned from a left hamstring strain, is building up at Triple A.
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While the Guardians are getting strong work out of Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, a return to form by fellow righty Triston McKenzie could be a pivotal development.
McKenzie, who made only four starts last season because of an elbow sprain, seems to be growing more comfortable with throwing hard again. He has shown improved average fastball velocity in his three most recent outings, jumping from 92.5 mph to 94.3 to 95. The trick now is for him to regain his command and look more like the pitcher he was in 2022, when he had a 2.96 ERA in 191 1/3 innings.
Kyle Hendricks’ full-circle moment
Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks will reach 10 years of major-league service time on Wednesday and gain full no-trade protection. Those 10-and-5 rights — 10 years in the majors and the past five consecutive seasons with the same team — represent a full-circle moment for one of the most consequential pitchers in franchise history.
At the 2012 trade deadline, Hendricks wound up going to the Cubs organization only after Ryan Dempster had previously used his no-trade power to veto a deal with the Braves. In the spiked trade proposal, the Cubs would have received Randall Delgado, a pitcher they wouldn’t have started in a Game 7, an assignment Hendricks calmly handled during the 2016 World Series.
With Dempster’s hopes to go to the Dodgers fading, and Atlanta no longer an option, the Cubs engaged with the Rangers and executed the kind of trade that selling teams dream about every summer.
Hendricks wasn’t the top-rated prospect included in the deal — third baseman Christian Villanueva had a higher profile at that time — but an external source familar with the Texas farm system recommended the finesse pitcher from Dartmouth. That scouting tip about Hendricks combined with Dempster’s deliberations helped transform Chicago’s rebuild.
At this time of year, executives are attached to their phones, constantly trying to assess the trade-deadline landscape while simultaneously preparing for the draft. Scouts follow players for years, gradually accumulating information and hoping their voices will be heard when it’s time to make those last-minute decisions. Sophisticated computer programs can project future value. But some of this is simply random.
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“Just another lucky roll of the dice,” said Hendricks, the last player remaining on the Cubs from the 2016 championship team. “That’s how everyone’s journey happens. You don’t get to this level without luck, so there have been a lot of things that have just gone my way, being in the right place at the right time.”
Among all Ivy League athletes who have reached Major League Baseball, the NFL, NBA and NHL, the Dartmouth grad is believed to have made the most money ($84.8 million) through his professional contracts as a player, according to research and information from sources. The best comp would probably be Ryan Fitzpatrick, the former NFL quarterback out of Harvard who earned approximately $82 million during his playing career, per Spotrac.
Hendricks has also produced more WAR (21.9, per Baseball-Reference) than any other Ivy Leaguer during MLB’s draft era (since 1965). That group includes two players-turned-executives who could shake up this year’s trade deadline: Rangers general manager Chris Young (Princeton) and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow (Yale).
Mason Miller’s hefty price tag
A’s closer Mason Miller will be one of the most heavily sought after arms this deadline. He’ll also come with a hefty price tag, one that was exponentially high in late April and doesn’t seem likely to come down this July. High-leverage relievers are often the most coveted trade pieces for contending teams, and there is arguably no better reliever in baseball this year than Miller. His 101 mph four-seamer has blown hitters away all season, giving him the highest chase rate (39.7 percent), whiff percentage (42.4 percent) and strikeout percentage (46.5 percent) in the league.
It’s the obvious play to connect contending teams to Miller. With five weeks to go until the trade deadline, there are only a handful of teams other than the A’s (the White Sox, Marlins and Rockies) who are considered true sellers. In theory, Oakland should capitalize on a market that will clearly favor the seller. There’s no scenario where Miller won’t be moved at the deadline, right?
Not exactly. Some industry sources believe Oakland’s asking price for Miller will be deemed too high, and that the 25-year-old will remain in the Bay Area this season.
“I don’t think they’re going to move him,” one league source said. “He’s too premium of a guy.”
Oakland’s vantage point comes down to the abundance of team control remaining on Miller. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. Free agency is out of the question until 2030. In trading for Miller, a team would be acquiring one of the top relief arms in baseball along with five and a half years of control. That will allow the A’s to essentially name their price — and that price will be nothing short of aggressive, if not unreasonable.
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“(Oakland) will ask for way too much,” the source said. “It’s going to be absurd. They have too much control over him. There aren’t many star guys out there right now that are super controllable. It would have to be a crazy good package.
“Never say never, but he’s so controllable and he’s such a critical part of their team. I think they’d have to be blown away.”
(Top photo of Garrett Crochet: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)