Lewis Dobbin to Aston Villa: The Athletic 500 transfer ratings

Aston Villa have signed Lewis Dobbin from Everton.

Our writers — who are experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finance — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers in five categories, with each aspect given a score out of 100, to reach a total score out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500. The ratings are explained in more detail here.

Below is our rating for this move.

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Tactical fit — 70/100

A look at how the player fits into his new club tactically, using Sentient Sports’ bespoke tactical-fit model, explained by our tactical expert.

Dobbin is a winger, who can play across the frontline. If he can grow into his frame and add strength, his overall output should improve, potentially making him a reliable winger as he matures. However, Dobbin has never had regular minutes in the Premier League — so he is an unproven talent at the top level.

Villa under Unai Emery use quick transitions and high defensive work rates so Dobbin’s pace and agility make him a natural fit for Villa’s style, particularly in stretching defences and making runs behind the back line. His technical skills and dribbling ability allow him to take on defenders one-on-one, which is needed for wide players in Emery’s system. Dobbin’s versatility across the front line means he can be used as a winger or central striker.

Here, in Everton’s FA Cup win against Crystal Palace in January, Dobbin travels with the ball and has two passing options: Dwight McNeil or Beto.

Opting to drive forward and engage Palace centre-back Joachim Andersen, he slips a pass to McNeil before entering the box to present himself for a return pass, but Andersen intercepts as McNeil takes too long to decide.

In Everton Under-21s’ games against Southampton in December 2023 (below), Dobbin cuts inside, exploiting the gap between Sonnie Davis and Joshua Lett, who could not turn quickly enough to match Dobbin’s acceleration. Dobbin then takes advantage of the space to shoot and score.

As a winger, his attributes match Villa’s need for players who can pin full-backs and contribute defensively, while he could be suitable as the understudy for the central striker role if he improves his hold-up play and physicality.

The 21-year-old is well suited for pressing high up the pitch and disrupting opponents’ build-up play. While he shows promise in finishing, his output could improve. But this kind of inconsistency is to be expected from a player his age.

Dobbin has the potential to fit in Villa, particularly as a winger or second striker. His attributes align with Emery’s tactical demands. He could become an asset, provided he continues to develop his physicality and combination with his team-mates. He is not expected to be a first-team starter but can make an impact as an option off the bench.

Gillian Kasirye

Season rating: 61/100

Rating the player over the course of last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team.

Given Everton were fighting for their Premier League status for most of last season, Dobbin playing a peripheral role under Sean Dyche is not surprising.

Across the Premier League, the FA Cup and the Carabao Cup, Dobbin made 15 appearances, with all but two of those — a start in a 1-0 away defeat to Wolves in August and 45 minutes in the 2-1 Carabao Cup second-round win over Doncaster — coming from the bench. The 21-year-old scored once, in Everton’s 2-0 win over Chelsea, an excellent left-footed driven shot taken on the half-volley.

Dobbin scored against Chelsea in December (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

It was his first goal in Everton colours and his fourth overall in the league as a professional, having scored three times in 45 League One appearances for Derby in the 2022-23 season.

Without the need to sell due to concerns over Everton’s position on profit and sustainability regulations (PSR), he may have played a bigger role under Dyche during their last season at Goodison Park.

Elias Burke

Gaming rating: 64/100

Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across both current and potential ability.

According to Football Manager, Dobbin is not yet at the level to feature consistently for Villa but could develop into a key player.

His current ability on FM24 is 112, which is comparable to Tim Iroegbunam’s (117), who has departed Villa Park for Goodison Park in a separate deal. He falls short of Villa’s wing options, with Morgan Rogers, around six months older than Dobbin, rated 125, while Leon Bailey (145) and Moussa Diaby (153) are comfortably better in the opinions of Sports Interactive’s extensive scouting network.

GO DEEPER

The attributes that have allowed Morgan Rogers to exceed early expectations at Aston Villa

But if Dobbin reaches his potential, he would become a star at Villa Park. He has a window between 130-150, with his floor being a useful Premier League squad player and an international-calibre player as his ceiling. For the purposes of our gaming rating, we went for a potential rating of 140, which is in the middle of this range.

Elias Burke

Financial value rating: 52/100

A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club.

Market value — 9/25

The reported fee of £9million ($11.4m) exceeds what most would expect to pay out for a 21-year-old who has started only one Premier League game, but Villa have effectively made this a mutually beneficial swap deal after sending Tim Iroegbunam in the opposite direction. It’s hard to otherwise see Dobbin warranting such a value.

Squad cost — 18/25

Villa have effectively lost nothing — or very little — in this trade with Everton and, if anything, can emerge from the business knowing they are in a stronger PSR position. This is all part of a broader flurry of business ahead of the financial year ending.

GO DEEPER

How are Chelsea, Villa, Newcastle, Everton, Leicester & Forest tackling PSR deadline?

Contract sensibility — 14/25

Dobbin will not be among Villa’s highest earners and a four-year deal is a commitment until 2028. The winger would hope to be playing regular football by then, but Villa are unlikely to ever see his salary or contract length become a burden.

Resale value — 11/25

There’s no shortage of time on Dobbin’s side at 21, with ample scope for development. It remains to be seen, though, if the winger will reach a level where Villa would be confident of recouping more than their outlay. A journey this far would indicate there will be limits to his long-term value.

Philip Buckingham

Risk or reward? 60/100

Is there a history of injury or other problems that could crop up and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look.

Many Everton fans were excited about Dobbin, but he still has a long way to go before he fulfils his potential.

Over two full seasons as a professional, he has shown glimpses of the technical and physical attributes necessary to contribute in the Premier League. He is blessed with blistering pace — a useful attribute in Emery’s system that emphasises wing play. He can also play on either wing and pass and shoot with both feet.

Elias Burke

Overall rating: 307/500

(Top photo: Alex Livesey/Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)