The offseason isn’t just a time for prospects, trades and free agency; it’s also a time for key pieces to get locked up long-term. It’s extension season.
The 2025-26 list of potential free agents looks absolutely stacked, but chances are a lot of those players won’t make it there. It’s much more likely most of these high-end pieces sign big, lengthy deals that keep them on their current team for many years to come.
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Rumors swirling around Jaccob Slavin and Igor Shesterkin have already kicked that talk into high gear, so we’ve decided to prepare for what may come starting July 1.
Using each player’s projected Net Rating, we’re going to look at how each player is expected to age and what dollar amount works with that trajectory while factoring for cap growth.
Along with Slavin and Shesterkin, here are 11 other key players who may sign a big extension this summer.
Centers
It feels almost impossible to overpay for Leon Draisaitl considering just how underpaid he’s been during his previous contract. He deserves some backpay and a $13.5 million deal as forecasted by Evolving Hockey fits that bill.
The model is less keen on that price tag, mostly because it’s a deal that spends its entirety in Draisaitl’s 30s. He may have been worth $13.5 million in his prime, but he already took a step back in 2023-24. Such a hefty price tag would be tough for any season where he’s 35 or older.
Many will recall that this model has often been extremely high on what superstars deserve, but that’s been fine-tuned (and continues to be fine-tuned) which is reflected here. There are still players worthy of eye-popping numbers like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon. Draisaitl is in a tier below that — and doesn’t have age on his side.
But his playoff acumen can’t be ignored, especially when compared to Matthews who doesn’t have close to the same resume.
A deal that makes Draisaitl the league’s highest-paid player (until McDavid takes the crown) wouldn’t be outlandish. He’s earned a big raise and his playoff bona fides make up the difference. But a max-term deal does carry some risk at that price for later seasons.
In Pittsburgh, everything revolves around Crosby. The 36-year-old not only had an elite season for his age, but probably would have earned some more MVP votes if it wasn’t for such a tight race between MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews and Nikita Kucherov.
How the Penguins proceed over the next few years likely all depends on how much longer Crosby wants to play. Having that certainty as soon as this summer will help management plan accordingly.
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Crosby could opt for some term and look for a three-year deal, like Evolving Hockey projects with a $10.8 million cap hit. That’s above what the model projects for ages 38, 39 and 40 by about $1.3 million but it could still be a fair-value contract if Crosby can keep defying aging curves. His value without accounting for age is $11.7 million. Plus, he’s taken so many discounts over the years that he deserves whatever he could ask for at this point.
But Crosby could also opt for a two-year deal instead to give the team flexibility, especially with it being a 35-plus contract. While Crosby is worth whatever he asks for, it wouldn’t be a shock if he signs at a discount again to avoid his contract getting in the way of the team’s chances of contending.
Wingers
Colorado’s cap strategy revolves around its core players. And with those contracts, management has shown a couple of tendencies. The first is a willingness to go big, even on deals that primarily get paid out in a player’s 30s — that’s the case with MacKinnon’s contract, Gabriel Landeskog’s, and most recently Devon Toews’. And with MacKinnon and Toews, those contracts were signed early.
If the Avalanche keep up with those trends, Rantanen could get signed to a long-term deal ahead of the 2025 offseason.
What works in Colorado’s favor is that MacKinnon’s $12.6 million AAV likely serves as an internal cap for Rantanen to file under. That would keep Rantanen below Evolving Hockey’s $12.9 million forecast and more in line with his actual worth.
Locking up Rantanen to a deal of this magnitude leaves the Avalanche with one problem: Less cap flexibility around their core, especially if Landeskog’s $7 million goes back on the books. Rantanen was more dependent on MacKinnon this season, and Colorado kept their top-loaded approach thanks to a boost in their supporting cast. That may be tricky to maintain with less cap space to go around post-extension.
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The other thing to look for is Colorado’s stars generally taking below market value to help with that. There’s a culture of winning that could have Rantanen falling in line. MacKinnon took a lot less than he could have and Toews’ deal looks like a discount too. Rantanen going the same route would go a long way, especially if the Avalanche can get him under $11.5 million.
Whatever happens, Rantanen is probably worth it.
Mitch Marner
The Leafs face a difficult question with Mitch Marner. Maybe you’ve heard about it?
If Toronto does go the extension route, it should not come at a price much higher than Marner’s current salary. Marner has comfortably played at or above that rate (during the regular season) in his prime and is worth that price again — but it may be harder to live up to that dollar figure as he progresses into his 30s.
The Leafs signing William Nylander at the peak of his value is also unfortunate as it gives Marner the leverage to ask for more. He’s arguably more valuable than Nylander, but probably not much more valuable than $11.5 million on an eight-year deal.
Marner’s current projection does come after a down year where he was dealing with ankle problems toward the end. If that was merely a blip and he’s closer to where he was to start last season, his value is closer to the $12.5 million range.
Anything more should be a hard line, especially with his tendency of wilting when it matters.
As expected, Verhaeghe ended up being a total steal on a three-year contract worth less than $4.2 million a year on average. But after thriving in Florida and coming up clutch in the Panthers’ two straight runs to the Stanley Cup Final, he should get paid this time around.
How much?
Evolving Hockey projects an $8.7 million cap hit over the next eight seasons, which may be too big of a swing into his 30s. There has to be some sort of balance, whether it’s term or value.
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If Florida can keep up the trend of signing their players to more team-friendly deals (see Gustav Forsling’s extension back in March, and maybe Sam Reinhart’s contract if he comes in below Matthew Tkachuk’s cap hit), then maybe the Panthers can keep him closer to his $7.9 million worth or lower on a long-term deal. If not, then management should want a shorter term on Verhaeghe’s next deal to avoid overpaying him into his 30s.
Travis Konecny had a breakthrough in 2022-23 scoring 31 goals and 61 points in 60 games. Last year he proved those numbers were no fluke while adding a little more five-on-five substance to his game.
He’s a no-doubt first-line player and could look even better with some stronger talent around him. The going rate for that is in the $8 million range and a rising cap helps, but age 30 and above can be a scary place for a winger. He should be a solid first-line bet for the next five seasons, but after that, things get dicey.
Term will be the big sticking point here. Any deal longer than five years likely drops his expected value below $8 million where it may become a bit more difficult to justify a bigger ticket.
With Boeser, the challenge for Vancouver will be projecting his true value. He’s coming off a career year where he scored 40 goals and 73 points, and jumped up to a plus-12 Net Rating. But just a year ago, he was down at a plus-0.1 when his poor defense overwhelmed his game.
If Boeser’s 2023-24 season is a true sign of what’s to come, then an eight-year contract in the $8 million range could click. But the model is a bit more cautious with his 2022-23 in mind, knocking his worth down to $6.9 million a year on average.
On the other hand, if Boeser takes a step back from this year, a long-term deal could sour quickly — just think about how J.T. Miller’s early extension caused stress back in 2022-23. So it may be Vancouver’s interest to pump the brakes and see what this season brings first before committing long-term. Maybe that brings a distraction similar to Elias Pettersson’s contract situation. But Vancouver really can’t afford to be anything but careful in today’s cap environment.
Defensemen
Shea Theodore is an interesting player. Very few defensemen create offense at his level, but he does have some flaws.
Over the last two seasons, he is fourth in five-on-five points-per-60 among defensemen and second to only Erik Karlsson in percentage of goals he earned a point on. Vegas’ power play isn’t very strong, but that’s probably not on Theodore who has earned a point on 76 percent of its goals with the man advantage, second to only Quinn Hughes. He’s elite at creating chances and is an excellent puck-mover in all three zones. His value according to Net Rating is always exceptional where he frequently ranks among the top 16 defensemen. He looks like a franchise defenseman, one who has been Vegas’ most valuable in several lengthy playoff runs.
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But Theodore also doesn’t play the toughest minutes for Vegas, struggles to stay in the lineup, and will be 30 when his extension kicks in. That doesn’t mean he can’t handle tough minutes or stay healthier in the future, but it does add some risk to investing so much for his services — no matter how much the model adores him.
An $8.5 million deal feels like one Theodore can bring positive value on, but that also depends on how frequently he can stay in the lineup to live up to it.
Hedman is a pillar for the Lightning. After an uncharacteristic 2022-23, he rebounded this season and hit his stride down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, when the Lightning needed him the most he flipped a switch to be their difference-maker on the back end despite a lack of support around him.
At this point, it isn’t a question of whether the Lightning are going to extend Hedman — it’s when they’re going to do it. As The Athletic’s Joe Smith wrote, he wants to stay in Tampa Bay for the rest of his career. But Hedman doesn’t want to find himself in a similar situation to Steven Stamkos who played through this year with his expiring contract looming. The team seems to be on the same page, with a plan to approach his next contract this summer.
The value could be the easier part of an extension to work out. Evolving Hockey projects an $8.3 million average annual value over a three-year deal, which comes in below his projected value of $8.7 million. But if he pushes for more term and security, maybe with Kris Letang’s five-year contract signed at age 35 in mind as a comparable, then that number likely has to come down a bit. Hedman’s next contract will kick in at 34 years old, so anything past a three-year term will have to account for where his game will be at 37-plus years old.
Jaccob Slavin
Elliotte Friedman expects an eight-year extension with a $6.5 million cap hit and that would be a solid bet by the Hurricanes. Those calling it an absolute home run though must not forget Slavin’s age. The deal will cover his age 31-to-38 seasons and as great as he is now, an eventual decline should be accounted for.
Slavin is one of the best two-way defensemen in the league right now and the fact he delivers so much value as a shutdown player makes him a bit of a unicorn. Being worth almost $9 million without the benefit of power play time or big minutes is difficult to do — he’s that good at what he does. His projected plus-five Defensive Rating is among the league’s best.
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That $8.9 million tag is for the 2025-26 season though. By Year 8 that drops to $5 million and the key is striking a balance along the way. That’s exactly what Carolina has done by likely bringing it down to $6.5 million, avoiding the potential for a Marc-Edouard Vlasic scenario.
That still represents a discount over his projected value and is solid work by Carolina. It’s just probably not the complete steal it’s made out to be.
This year the Panthers are dealing with two important expiring contracts up front and on defense between Sam Reinhart and Brandon Montour. It won’t be any easier next year with Verhaeghe and Ekblad on expiring contracts.
While Ekblad wasn’t as active on the scoresheet this year, he formed an elite top pair with Forsling that shut down top competition. The model has him worth about $7.4 million a year on average over the next eight years. That would technically be a step down from his current cap hit of $7.5 million. But if management front-loads the deal, similar to his last contract to boost him from his current $7 million salary, then maybe the surface-level details may not matter all that much — especially when so many other Panthers have taken team-friendly deals. Again, look at Forsling who has proven this year that he may be the driver of the pair after all.
Ekblad may have had some gaffes in the postseason and has suffered through some poor injury luck over the years, both of which could hurt his case for a long-term extension this summer. But if Montour departs, Ekblad’s extension chances are likely higher. It’s hard to see the Panthers making that many dramatic changes to their blue line after two straight trips to the Final.
Goaltenders
Igor Shesterkin
We already got this one out of the way with a piece on the matter last week. Long story short: Shesterkin deserves a blank check and may be the rare breed that lives up to a mega deal, but there’s a ton of risk in allocating that much to a goalie.
A deal around $10.5 million feels like a solid middle ground between where he was projected at the end of the last two seasons. Anything more than that could be dangerous.
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After a slow start to the season, Saros’ second-half rebound helped fuel the Predators’ push back into the playoff picture. But the Predators’ long-term view and Yaroslav Askarov’s progression have sparked questions about whether or not Nashville will extend their current number one.
As The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported earlier this month, general manager Barry Trotz wants to get an extension done this summer.
After a mid-range deal, this is Saros’ chance to cash in with a long-term deal. There’s just a gap between what the model thinks he’s worth — $7.6 million a year across seven seasons — and what Evolving Hockey forecasts at $9.5 million.
That’s a number that few goaltenders hit consistently, especially in their 30s. Only Carey Price and Sergei Bobrovsky have active cap hits that exceed that, and Shesterkin will likely join that class soon. Saros being one year older than Shesterkin makes him a riskier bet.
Saros should be able to juice his value with a more consistent 2024-25 if he can pick up where he left off this year. Still, that would only bump him into a very reasonable $8 million range, where Connor Hellebuyck and Ilya Sorokin currently are.
Just one goaltender is in the $9 million range right now — Andrei Vasilevskiy at $9.5 million, who delivered two consecutive championships. Nashville’s just in a different position contention-wise than Tampa Bay was at the time, and has an up-and-coming goaltender in Askarov to consider. That could be what limits Saros to a salary tier below that.
— Data via Evolving Hockey
(Top photo of Leon Draisaitl and Sidney Crosby: Dave Sandford / NHLI via Getty Images)