Where did 104 mph go? Jhoan Duran’s missing velocity has Twins looking for answers

Admittedly, being worried about a pitcher throwing “only” 100 mph can’t help but feel like nitpicking or an overreaction, but that’s where Minnesota Twins fans find themselves with closer Jhoan Duran.

Duran’s fastball has averaged 100.2 mph this season, making it the third-hardest pitch in baseball. But relative to last season, when he led MLB by averaging 101.8 mph with his fastball, Duran’s velocity is way down.

“Way down” for Duran still means extremely fast, but that doesn’t make it any less worrisome than it would be for any apparently healthy 26-year-old to lose 1.6 mph, particularly when it’s attached to a decrease in overall effectiveness.

In his first two seasons, Duran posted a 2.15 ERA with 12 strikeouts per nine innings, making him one of the game’s best, most dominant relievers. This season, his ERA has ballooned to 3.91, including 5.63 since mid-May, and his strikeout rate has plummeted to 8.2 per nine innings.

Duran simply hasn’t been as good, and hasn’t been throwing as hard, and that combination is absolutely worth fretting about, no matter how unnatural it may feel to view 100 mph pitches as worrisome.

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On a per-plate appearance basis, nearly a third of Duran’s strikeouts have vanished compared to his first two seasons, going from 33.2 percent then to 22.8 percent now, which is barely above the league-wide rate of 22.5 percent this season. He’s also allowed four homers in just 23 innings for an average of 1.6 per nine innings, double his career rate of 0.8 coming into the season.

Duran suffered a right oblique strain late in spring training and missed the first four weeks of the season, coming off the injured list on April 30. It’s not unusual for a pitcher to return from an extended absence with temporarily diminished velocity and effectiveness, and a core-muscle injury can often cause mechanical issues that require ironing out.

But there’s nothing temporary about Duran’s situation. It’s been nearly two months since he returned from the IL and he’s pitched exclusively in high-leverage spots during that period, with an overall workload that’s heavier than his 2023 and 2022 norms. Everyone involved is steadfast in saying he’s healthy, and Duran’s usage certainly suggests the Twins believe it.

Duran’s mechanics were a prominent topic in late May, as coaches tried to figure out why he still wasn’t throwing as hard a month after his return. At the time, Duran expressed confidence that they’d pinpointed the issue and, after studying video, would make the necessary mechanical adjustments to get him back on track.

It hasn’t worked. Duran reached 101 and 102 mph with a handful of pitches following the mechanical adjustments, including a season-high 103 mph on May 28, but he was still short of his previous peak velocity. And his average fastball velocity has remained unchanged, clocking in at 100.3 mph in June compared to 100.2 mph in May, well below last year’s 101.8 mph.

Last season, Duran topped out at 104.8 mph. This season, it’s 103.1 mph.

Last season, Duran threw 12.2 percent of his fastballs at least 103 mph. This season, it’s 0.7 percent.

Last season, Duran threw 43.3 percent of his fastballs at least 102 mph. This season, it’s 5.2 percent.

Last season, Duran threw 80.6 percent of his fastballs at least 101 mph. This season, it’s 21.6 percent.

And it’s not just his fastball velocity that declined. Duran’s average splinker is down from 98.3 mph to 96.8 mph and his average curveball is down from 87.7 mph to 86.4 mph. He’s missing around 1.5 mph compared to last season, regardless of which pitch type is being deployed, with corresponding lesser peaks and, perhaps most damaging, lower valleys.

Duran took the loss Friday night in Oakland by allowing a two-run homer to A’s catcher Shea Langeliers. It came on a 93.7 mph splinker. Last season, he threw 276 splinkers, averaging 98.3 mph on the pitch and topping out at 101.9 mph, with none of them below 94.9 mph. This season, 10 percent of his splinkers have been as slow or slower than the slowest splinker he threw in 2023.

“The velocity of that pitch was down, compared to where it normally would be,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “Why that is, I couldn’t tell you. It was at 93.7. I don’t like referencing the velocities in particular, but you know, 93.7 is lower than almost any split you’ll see (from Duran). It’s not the only reason the ball got hit. The pitch was up in the zone as well and (Langeliers) didn’t miss it.”

In fact, all four homers Duran has allowed this season — two on splinkers thrown 93.7 mph and 95.4 mph, two on curveballs thrown 83.6 mph and 86.1 mph — have come on pitches slower than last year’s typical velocity range.

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— Oakland A's (@Athletics) June 22, 2024

Any time Duran, or another flame-throwing reliever, gets beat on off-speed pitches, it’s easy to question why they don’t just stick to fastballs. However, even with the four homers included, opponents have hit just .145 with a .364 slugging percentage off Duran’s splinker and curveball. And the story was similar last year, when they hit .204 and slugged .296 versus those pitches.

Meanwhile, opponents have yet to homer against Duran’s fastball this year, but they’ve still been teeing off on the diminished pitch. Duran has allowed a .320 batting average on his fastball, compared to .213 last season, and the average exit velocity produced by hitters versus his fastball is up 1.6 mph, the exact same amount the pitch’s average incoming velocity is down.

Duran missing about 1.5 mph has led to each of his three pitches being less effective, but in different ways. His fastball dropping from 101-104 mph to 99-102 mph hasn’t meant more contact, but it has meant better contact, with more hard-hit line drives. His splinker and curveball losing velocity has resulted in far fewer whiffs and less margin for error on vulnerable pitches in the zone.

Zooming out from a pitch-by-pitch view to the bigger picture, Duran’s stats are littered with red flags compared to his first two seasons.

His strikeouts are down 30 percent and opponents are chasing his pitches out of the strike zone 25 percent less often while making 23 percent more contact when they do chase.

His homer rate has doubled as he’s induced fewer grounders and more fly balls. And regardless of the type of balls in play, opponents are pulling his pitches 40 percent more often, which is easily connected to lower velocity.

His spin rates are down on all three pitches, which is typically tied to lower velocities. And mechanically, he’s getting less extension in his delivery and throwing pitches from a lower release point, altering their characteristics.

The overall result has been a 3.91 ERA and similarly underwhelming 3.64 xERA and 3.69 xFIP from a purportedly healthy, prime-aged pitcher who ranked among baseball’s best the past two seasons with a 2.15 ERA, 2.40 xERA and 2.42 xFIP. This current version of Duran remains a decent reliever, but the Twins need him to be a lot more than just a decent reliever.

Duran may or may not be totally healthy, but either way he’s definitely not quite right, and the Twins’ ability to figure out why and how to fix it will be one of the most important stories of the season’s final three months.

(Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)