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BARCELONA, Spain — Through the opening rounds of the 2024 season, when Max Verstappen was winning races by an average of 15 seconds, a true fight at the front of the Formula One field looked a long way off.
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Since the Miami GP at the start of May, that has changed. Verstappen and Red Bull haven’t looked comfortable. Ferrari and McLaren have notched victories. The newly upgraded Mercedes took the pole in Canada and had the pace to win. At separate points, four teams had a claim to be the quickest on the grid. That wasn’t true at all last year, as Red Bull cantered to the constructors’ championship by more than 400 points.
Where did Red Bull’s advantage go? How did the unequivocal domination that rendered F1 so predictable through so much of last year disappear in a matter of races?
The answer appeared to lie in the demands of the circuit layouts: the semi-street nature of Miami and Canada, the bumpy and technical challenge of Imola, the unique beast that is Monaco. Verstappen’s two wins came despite never being entirely at ease as the inherent weaknesses of the Red Bull RB20, chiefly its ability to ride curbs and bumps in the track, came to the fore.
Despite an upgrade arriving at Imola, Red Bull couldn’t maintain its advantage. “It does look as if their upgrade was a downgrade,” Mercedes technical director James Allison commented in Canada. The package hadn’t provided the kind of step other teams, such as McLaren or, admittedly, based on Canada alone, Mercedes looked to have made.
With that run of races over and F1 returning to its European ‘heartland’ after Canada, this next phase of the season is more familiar territory. From Spain this weekend through to the Belgian Grand Prix at the end of July, this will be a vital stretch for truly understanding the scale of Red Bull’s advantage.
All five tracks in that run — the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, the Red Bull Ring, Silverstone, the Hungaroring and Spa — are what one may call more ‘traditional’ or ‘normal’ tracks, with a mix of corner speeds that will better illustrate how the teams compare. Red Bull’s true advantage (or lack thereof) should become clear again.
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Allison said in Canada that “as soon as there’s a decent range of cornering speeds, (Red Bull) will be useful again.” And post-race in Montreal, Red Bull team boss Christian Horner noted that Red Bull’s so-called downgrade was still enough to beat Mercedes’ upgrade.
Yet intrigue remains over how the four fastest teams will compare starting in Spain this weekend and whether it will go back to the script of the early part of this year.
Verstappen doubted it would be the case, even if he acknowledged it should be a track that better suits the team. “I don’t think it will be like the beginning of the season,” he said. “We know that normally, this is a track our car should suit a bit more, and we’re excited. I’m aware that everyone has been catching up a lot, everyone is quite confident. But if you compare this to the last few races that we have done, this should be a better track.”
Spain has historically been a good circuit for Red Bull. The mix of high- and medium-speed corners plus the abrasive nature of the tarmac should play to the strengths of the RB20, with its advantage on the latter being particularly clear at the season-opener in Bahrain.
For that reason, Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz said he expected Red Bull to be “the team to beat” in Barcelona. Teammate Charles Leclerc agreed: “I believe we’ll see them back to a really good level this weekend.”
But Sainz was quick to list the other teams that could get in the mix, and he said he felt he could become the first home winner in Spain since Fernando Alonso in 2013. “McLaren is very strong in high-speed corners like here, and now they are not weak anymore in low-speed corners,” he said. “We need to see how that upgrade from Mercedes performs in Barcelona because, by fact, they were the quickest in Canada.
“And then we need to see if Ferrari can find the form of Monaco, and with a bit of an upgrade maybe, be also good in high-speed tracks and tire management. The field is extremely compact and extremely unknown, so it’s very difficult to judge until Friday, even until FP3 (on Saturday), who is going to be the quickest one, which is actually pretty exciting for everyone.”
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Verstappen was reluctant to place too much pressure on Spain to determine what the rest of Red Bull’s season might look like, rejecting the suggestion there could be “tension” if this isn’t an easier weekend for the team.
“Let’s say it doesn’t go to plan; let’s not go overboard, right?” Verstappen said. “We just keep working and keep trying to be better. There’s still so many races where you could score a good amount of points. But of course, here, we really want to do well.”
Through this phase of last season, Verstappen broke the back of the championship, stamping out any thought of a challenge in emphatic fashion with a sweep of 10 victories in a row.
Although he has a healthy buffer at the top of the standings, Verstappen could turn the screw at these tracks, which are firmly his territory. It would be a timely reminder to the field of who controls this championship.
Verstappen is correct in saying there is no need to go overboard on drawing too drastic a conclusion based on this weekend alone. But by the summer break at the start of August, we will know for sure just how much Red Bull’s advantage from the beginning of this year has changed — and whether F1’s more competitive and, frankly, more compelling on-track narrative is here to stay.
(Top photo of Max Verstappen: Chris Graythen/Getty Images)