By Will Sammon, Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal
MLB trade deadline watch is a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.
Multiple high-ranking rival evaluators see Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. as the kind of dynamic player who can improve any team, but for as talented as he is, he’s also someone who carries concerns.
Availability is one. His low walk and high strikeout rates are another. And even Robert’s three additional years of club control beyond this season come with a caveat — his two $20 million club options will be appropriately priced only if he stays on the field.
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Last season was Robert’s first with more than 100 games played (he appeared in 145 games), and a right hip flexor strain has limited him to just 21 games so far in 2024. However, Robert played in all but four games during 2020’s 60-game season, finishing runner-up for Rookie of the Year and winning a Gold Glove Award. In 2023, Robert showcased his talents by becoming an All-Star for the first time with 38 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a .857 OPS.
Rival evaluators prefer to see him do it again.
FanGraphs valued Robert in 2023 with 4.9 wins above replacement, and front offices rate him similarly when healthy; obtaining him would have to come at the “right price,” one general manager said. Rival evaluators say Robert can be pitched to. While his chase rate is down from last season, it is still relatively high.
And before that tweet can send, Luis Robert Jr. makes it 2-0.
Fourth time the Sox have gone back-to-back this season, second time this series. Third HR for Robert in Seattle. pic.twitter.com/4pbb6usHhk
— Josh Kirshenbaum (@J_Kirshenbaum) June 14, 2024
Robert has played exclusively in center field over his career with the White Sox, but he wouldn’t play that position for every team. The Seattle Mariners, for instance, almost certainly would stick with Julio Rodriguez in center. Certain other contending teams would be in a similar position with their center fielders, perhaps reducing their interest in Robert.
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Yet, given Robert’s status as the White Sox’s best player, some in the industry expect general manager Chris Getz to overvalue him. Robert, who turns 27 in August, is not exactly cheap, earning $12.5 million this season and $15 million next season before his two club options. At those salaries, suitors might be reluctant to part with premium prospects.
Given Robert’s talent and club control, two high-ranking rival officials said Chicago has no need to feel any urgency to move him despite the club’s undesirable state. The general feeling within the industry is that the White Sox are in no rush to deal him, either. They can wait until the offseason when teams are in more flexible positions with their rosters.
The balance of going ‘all in’
Some fans want their favorite teams to go “all in” at the trade deadline, doing everything possible to win that season. But even when clubs act aggressively, they’re balancing both the short- and long-term, and in many cases rejecting more deals than they make.
Consider the 2015 Blue Jays. They sure looked “all-in,” acquiring shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, left-hander David Price, outfielder Ben Revere and reliever Mark Lowe in separate trades. But even that year, their general manager at the time, Alex Anthopoulos, resisted several other offers for top prospects while saving money to land 16-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the international market.
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During spring training, according to sources briefed on the discussions, Anthopoulos declined to trade reliever Roberto Osuna and second baseman Devon Travis to the Royals for Greg Holland, then one of the top closers in the game. Both Osuna and Travis made their debuts for the Jays later that season.
At the deadline, Anthopoulos was in the mix for rental starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir. But he declined to trade pitching prospect Jeff Hoffman for Cueto and resisted a similar ask for Kazmir. Cueto went to the Royals, Kazmir to the Astros.
Then, before getting Tulowitzki, Anthopoulos made a push for Ben Zobrist. The A’s wanted multiple long-term pieces in return for the super-utilityman, and ultimately sent him to the Royals for pitchers Sean Manaea and Aaron Brooks. The Jays wound up losing to Cueto, Zobrist and the Royals in the ALCS.
Anthopoulos ended up giving up three pitching prospects in both the Tulowitzki and Price trades. But the Tulowitzki deal enabled him to escape the final two-plus years of Jose Reyes’ contract while acquiring reliever LaTroy Hawkins and getting Tulo for five-plus. Price, while only a rental, was the top starting pitching available, an elite talent.
Beyond those moves, Anthopoulos maneuvered that season to create international bonus pool space to sign Guerrero Jr. for $3.9 million. He conceivably could have devoted some of the money ticketed for Guerrero to other major-league acquisitions. But as most top executives do, he attacked the present while staying mindful of the future.
The Jays at the deadline in 2015 were six games back in the AL East, but with a plus-103 run differential to the first-place Yankees’ plus-50. The Braves under Anthopoulos in 2021 were in a similar position, trailing the division-leading Mets but with a better run differential. Anthopoulos acquired a number of outfielders after Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury, and the team won the World Series.
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Might history repeat? The Braves again have lost Acuña for the season, but their plus-46 run differential, fourth-best in the weak National League, is a measure of their underlying strength. Their chances of winning the World Series are diminished without Acuña and right-hander Spencer Strider. But based on his past actions, Anthopoulos will not hesitate to address any weaknesses, if necessary.
Mariners well positioned to bolster lineup
The Mariners plan to be aggressive with their push for some kind of offensive addition, and they boast an array of minor-league position players to deal from in order to get the job done, multiple evaluators said.
Five Mariners prospects landed in The Athletic’s Keith Law’s recently updated top-50 list: shortstop/second baseman Colt Emerson, shortstop Cole Young, shortstop Felnin Celesten, catcher Harry Ford and outfielder Jonny Farmelo, who will miss the rest of the season because of a recent knee injury. Ford is the only one over the age of 20 — and he’s 21.
Rival scouts like all of them, and then some. Also on people’s radars: Double-A third baseman Ben Williamson, 23, who has earned rave reviews for his defense and strong strike-zone judgment. And across both levels of A ball, there are more names scouts are keeping tabs on.
Indeed, the strength of the Mariners’ farm system is their position players, particularly their infielders. That surplus would be the logical area for the Mariners to trade from, but rival clubs also like Seattle’s major-league-ready starting pitching depth such as Bryce Miller, who is already occupying a spot in their rotation, and Emerson Hancock, who is in Triple A.
Scouts from opposing clubs also are intrigued by Double-A pitching prospect Logan Evans, but beyond him, the Mariners do not have any other young arms close to being major-league ready.
The Mariners don’t expect money to be an issue, people familiar with the club’s thinking said. So the challenge for them instead is striking the right balance between satisfying their short-term and long-term goals, especially given how they’ve developed well with their best players being homegrown.
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National League in a holding pattern
Six weeks out from the trade deadline, almost the entire National League is stuck in a holding pattern. Entering Wednesday, 13 of the 15 NL clubs were either in a playoff position or less than two games out of a postseason spot. The parity, or mediocrity, makes it hard to concede.
There are a few clear buyers with World Series-or-bust expectations. The Miami Marlins already signaled they were open for business by trading Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres in early May. All those teams in the bunched-up middle are hoping for hot streaks, weighing internal improvements and waiting for prices to drop.
“Every year, there’s questions earlier and earlier about when the trade market is open,” Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said. “I talk to teams every day — many teams every day — and the idea of making significant, big transactions in mid-June is unbelievably difficult. And, at times, it’s impossible because teams aren’t going to do that to their own fan base.”
Another NL executive estimated that the cost of acquiring Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo, for example, would be doubled at the beginning of June as compared to a deal at the end of July. At this point, in mid-June, the premium would be 1.5 times the price compared to the deadline, multiple executives said. So if a team zeros in on Luzardo, then the Marlins will call other teams to drive up the price for those extra Luzardo starts.
How the Cubs perform over the next month-plus will influence which prospects from a top-rated farm system might go in deals, and how much additional money ownership is willing to kick in for a playoff push. Across the industry, the third wild card is a major incentive to stay in the race.
“A lot of teams are not willing to make deals yet,” Hoyer said. “The teams that usually want to make trades right now are sort of willing to do it if you pay a massive premium, which, let’s face it, for most people, it’s hard to do that. You’re doing something that’s irrational.”
Orioles content to wait even after Kyle Bradish injury
Despite losing Bradish to Tommy John Surgery, the Orioles’ timeline for potentially acting in the starting pitcher market hasn’t changed, people familiar with the club’s thinking said.
The Athletic reported last week that general manager Mike Elias was telling clubs he will weigh the addition of a starting pitcher perhaps up to the deadline, according to sources briefed on his discussions.
After losing Bradish, the Orioles still plan to let the next handful of weeks further inform their decision-making, and, for now, they may be able to afford to wait. Though troublesome, it’s likely that Bradish’s latest injury hardly shocked Baltimore’s brass since he was already sidelined with a sprained UCL earlier this year. Additionally, 34-year-old right-hander Albert Suarez (2.35 ERA as a starter through eight starts) and 24-year-old left-hander Cade Povich have represented nice finds so far in a rotation that also includes Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Cole Irvin.
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However, another injury may put Baltimore in an uncomfortable place regarding its depth. The Orioles had already lost two starters, lefty John Means and righty Tyler Wells, to season-ending elbow surgeries. Righty Dean Kremer is out with a right triceps strain, as well, though he is expected to return within weeks.
(Top photo of Luis Robert Jr.: Elsa / Getty Images)