In today’s NHL, players aren’t just judged on their ability, they’re graded on value and efficiency — how large is their impact relative to their contract? Last week we looked at some of the best bargain contracts in the NHL from this past season, now let’s look at players who didn’t live up to their contracts in 2023-24 and how much longer those deals will be on the books for.
Advertisement
Here’s how we’ll conduct this exercise.
• We’ll be using Dom Luszczyszyn’s player model as a measuring stick. Net Rating provides an all-in-one performance metric that weighs factors such as point production, play-driving, defensive impact, penalties drawn, blocked shots, faceoffs, penalty-kill impact and more. That impact is then translated to a market value — what that player’s contributions should be worth — and that market value is compared to their actual cap hit.
• A player isn’t “bad” if they end up on one of the inefficient lists. It just means they weren’t quite worth their cap hit in 2023-24, at least from a statistical perspective. There are plenty of high-end NHLers that you’ll see throughout the piece, many of whom actually played very well this season.
• We’ll only be identifying players who underperformed their cap hit by at least $1 million.
Players’ Net Rating will be prorated over 82 games in case they missed some time because of injuries
• No goalies will be analyzed.
• There are blindspots in the model like any statistical measure — it’s not perfect. With that in mind, I used the model to come up with an initial list of players for each team, but I used personal discretion on occasion to remove a player from the “inefficient” contracts pile if I felt there was an obvious flaw/blind spot in the model’s evaluation.
• Players who spent over half of the season injured (Trevor Zegras, for example), on LTIR or the NHL Player Assistance program weren’t included.
• Players who changed teams midseason weren’t included either.
On Thursday, we analyzed the Eastern Conference teams. Now, let’s shift our focus to the West.
Anaheim Ducks
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-8 | $6.5M | 2 | |
-6 | $5M | 3 | |
-4 | $5.25M | 0 (Retiring) | |
0 | $6.25M | 3 | |
+4 | $7M | 6 |
Cam Fowler: Fowler’s workload as the Ducks’ de facto No. 1 defenseman is excessive and at 32, his age is starting to catch up to him as well. He struggled defensively, with the Ducks outscored by a whopping 37 goals during his five-on-five shifts. Fowler has two years left and with Anaheim not contending anytime soon, his contract isn’t a complete albatross — it’s handy having a veteran eat massive minutes to shelter Anaheim’s talented young blueliners.
Advertisement
Ryan Strome picked up 41 points but he can’t drive a line offensively and gives back significant value with his defensive flaws.
Jakob Silfverberg was an outstanding two-way winger during the Ducks’ Cup contention window. He was a shadow of himself the last few years because of injuries, though, offering excellent defensive play but just 19 points in 2023-24.
The Ducks had to overpay to sign Alex Killorn last summer. He’s still a handy player and finished with a respectable 18 goals in 63 games, but he’s not a $6.25 million winger. That’s not the end of the world, though, because his contract isn’t too long, the club is still rebuilding and they need quality veterans like Killorn.
Troy Terry had a down year (20 goals and 54 points) but I wouldn’t be worried about his contract he’s remarkably skilled, still in his prime and will likely bounce back, especially as the talent around him hopefully improves.
Arizona Coyotes/Utah Hockey Club
None: Jason Zucker ($5.3 million) and Matt Dumba ($3.9 million) fell short of their pay grade, but they were both dealt at the deadline. That was the plan all along: Pay two respected veterans more than market value on a one-year deal and then flip them to contenders when it’s time to sell. Once they were traded, the Coyotes didn’t have any inefficient deals.
Calgary Flames
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
+2 | $10.5M | 7 | |
+1 | $5.35M | 0 ($4.5M x 2 extension kicking in) | |
0 | $4.55M | 2 | |
+3 | $5.8M | 1 |
Jonathan Huberdeau: With seven years left at a $10.5 million AAV, a full no-movement clause and a signing-bonus heavy structure that makes this deal virtually buyout-proof, Huberdeau arguably has the worst contract in the NHL. The 31-year-old left winger didn’t bounce back without Darryl Sutter the way many hoped as he scored 52 points in 81 games.
Mikael Backlund recorded 39 points in 82 games, a 17-point drop-off compared to 2022-23. He saw a significant decline in his two-way play driving numbers too. At 35, Backlund’s still a quality center, it’s just that he’s closer to a 3C caliber player rather than a 2C now. Calgary’s captain took a pay cut on a two-year extension that kicks in next season, so there isn’t much to worry about with his new deal.
Advertisement
Rasmus Andersson is a stud right-shot defender who had a down year. He slipped to 39 points this season, and most impactfully, leaked five-on-five shots, expected goals and actual goals against at the worst rate of his career defensively.
Andrew Mangiapane contributed 14 goals and 40 points in 75 games despite being paid nearly $6 million.
Chicago Blackhawks
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-11 | $5M | 0 (UFA) | |
+4 | $9.5M | 6 | |
-7 | $4.5M | 0 (UFA) | |
-9 | $4.4M | 2 |
Tyler Johnson: Three summers ago, the Lightning paid Chicago to take on Johnson’s $5 million cap hit. The 33-year-old undersized skill forward scored 31 points in 67 games which doesn’t sound too bad, but he had brutal defensive numbers (even relative to Chicago’s porous environment), which included Johnson driving a 37 percent share of five-on-five scoring chances.
Some people may be surprised that Seth Jones didn’t land No. 1 on this list. If we were considering his six years left, Jones’ contract would be by far the worst on the Blackhawks’ cap sheet. But looking strictly at this season, Jones is still a good top-four defender who drives strong results; he’s just not the high-end No. 1 that he’s paid to be.
Nikita Zaitsev was acquired as a cap dump, so it’s not a shock that he provided replacement-level value despite clocking in at a $4.5 million AAV.
Connor Murphy didn’t have his best season and was reduced to 46 games because of injury. He’s a good player on a reasonable cap hit, though, so this contract should be fine moving forward.
Colorado Avalanche
None: By dumping Ryan Johansen to Philadelphia as part of the Sean Walker trade, the Avalanche got rid of the only egregious contract they had on the books. Johansen had mustered 23 points in 63 games while on a $4 million cap hit at the time of the trade.
Dallas Stars
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
+6 | $9.5M | 1 | |
+6 | $9.85M | 3 | |
-4 | $3.25M | 1 |
Tyler Seguin: Seguin and Jamie Benn are both still critical top-six caliber contributors for the Stars, they’re just not worth nearly $10 million each. Seguin scored 25 goals and 52 points in 68 games while Benn scored 21 goals and 60 points. Dallas had so many team-friendly contracts like Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene and Logan Stankoven in 2023-24, though, that Seguin and Benn’s modest overpayments aren’t a major hindrance.
Advertisement
Radek Faksa is outstanding on faceoffs and excellent defensively, but he averages fourth-line minutes and only scored 19 points in 74 games, which makes his $3.25 million AAV a bit rich.
Edmonton Oilers
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
+6 | $9.25M | 6 | |
+2 | $5.125M | 2 |
Darnell Nurse: Nurse’s $9.25 million AAV made him the seventh highest paid defenseman in the NHL this year. He’s never going to perform like a true No. 1 defenseman, with the model estimating that his performance was closer to the level of a $6.5 million defender this season.
GO DEEPER
'You're great. You suck': The good and the bad of landing that big NHL contract
Evander Kane still brings a valuable physical edge and secondary scoring (24 goals and 44 points in 77 games) but he’s lost a step with his skating, doesn’t drive play and is decisively below-average defensively. He appeared to be playing at less than 100 percent health. Kane’s $5.125 million AAV is far from a millstone but it is a premium at this stage for what he brings.
Los Angeles Kings
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-1 | $8.5M | 7 | |
+11 | $10M | 0 ($7M x 2 extension kicking in) |
Pierre-Luc Dubois: Dubois was the only $8.5 million or higher AAV forward in the NHL this season who failed to crack the 0.5 points per game mark. The polarizing 25-year-old forward is paid like a bona fide first-line center but performed like a run-of-the-mill 3C instead. Washington’s taking a massive gamble by taking on the full freight of his contract after acquiring him from the Kings.
GO DEEPER
By trading Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Kings admit their error and address another problem
Anže Kopitar had another 70-point season, which is extremely impressive at 36. He was the fifth highest-paid center in the NHL this season, with the model pegging his true value closer to $8 million rather than his actual $10 million cap hit. Kopitar is taking a pay cut down to $7 million on an extension that kicks in next season, though, so there’s no reason to worry.
Minnesota Wild
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-11 | $2.1M | 4 | |
-14 | $2M | 0 (UFA) |
Frederick Gaudreau: Minnesota’s overall cap work isn’t too bad but with $14.7 million in dead cap from the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts, there’s zero margin for error. Gaudreau averaged 42 points per 82 games pace during his first two years in Minnesota, which earned him a five-year, $2.1 million AAV extension. The 31-year-old right-shot utility forward slumped to five goals and 15 points in 67 games this season. Gaudreau’s cap hit isn’t too worrisome on its own but the four years left on his deal and 15-team no-trade list he possesses creates cause for concern.
Alex Goligoski, 38, has been a below-average third-pair defender for the last two years despite making $2 million.
Advertisement
Nashville Predators
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-10 | $4.5M | 0 (UFA) | |
-7 | $2.75M | 2 | |
-13 | $2.5M | 1 |
Tyson Barrie: Preds GM Barry Trotz has made steady progress cleaning up the club’s overpriced contracts. Last year, Nashville had six contracts on this list, now it’s down to three. Tyson Barrie, who appeared in 41 games and is nothing more than a power-play specialist at this stage, was a far cry from his $4.5 million cap hit. His deal will be off the books this summer.
Luke Schenn didn’t have the smoothest transition to Smashville. The Preds had a minus-five goal differential during his five-on-five shifts in a third-pair role, which isn’t ideal for a $2.75 million defender. On the bright side, his play-driving numbers were decent and he’s only a year removed from being a steady top-four contributor in Vancouver and Toronto.
Cody Glass broke out with 14 goals and 35 points in 72 games in 2022-23. He signed a $2.5 million AAV extension on the back of that but didn’t deliver for that price this season. Glass mustered 13 points in 41 games as he endured both injuries and scratches.
San Jose Sharks
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-13 | $7M | 2 | |
-17 | $4.725M | 0 (UFA) | |
-10 | $4.5M | 0 (UFA) | |
-16 | $2.75M | 0 (RFA) | |
-14 | $2.5M | 0 (UFA) | |
-10 | $2M | 1 |
Marc-Edouard Vlasic: Vlasic was an elite shutdown defenseman during his prime but has been a shadow of that version for quite some time now. He still has two years left on an anchor $7 million contract.
Looking at the Sharks’ bloated contracts, the good news for the organization is that most of them expire soon. Kevin Labanc and Mike Hoffman were one-dimensional offensive players who didn’t produce nearly enough — both of them are off the books this summer. Alex Barabanov, who fell from 47 points in 68 games during 2022-23 down to 13 points in 46 games, is expiring as well. Luke Kunin is a decent bottom-six option but $2.75 million is expensive relative to his production (18 points in 77 games).
Nico Sturm is solid at $2 million for his elite faceoff prowess (won 60.1 percent of draws) and defensive reliability, but the model viewed him as a slight overpay in 2023-24 because of his lack of offense. The large German center dropped from 14 goals and 26 points in 2022-23 down to five goals and 13 points in 63 games. Even a slight offensive bounce-back will bring him back to providing fair value.
Seattle Kraken
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-9 | $5.5M | 3 | |
-1 | $5.166M | 1 | |
-6 | $3.5M | 1 | |
-4 | $3M | 0 | |
-1 | $4.6M | 2 | |
+3 | $5.5M | 2 |
Andre Burakovsky: The Kraken didn’t get enough offense from several of their handsomely paid middle-six forwards. Burakovky was the most inefficient of the group, struggling in large part because of injuries. The 29-year-old winger has only appeared in 49 games in each of his first two seasons in Seattle. This year, he produced seven goals and 19 points.
Advertisement
Yanni Gourde was dinged by the model for his offensive drop-off (33 points this season) but a look under the hood suggests it was primarily due to bad luck. Gourde’s line generated shots and scoring chances at a nearly identical rate to 2022-23 when he scored 48 points, but they only scored on 6.4 percent of their five-on-five shots. There’s a good chance he’ll bounce back next season and live up to his contract.
Brandon Tanev is a fan favorite for a reason. The speedy bottom-six winger is a strong defensive contributor, an excellent penalty killer and embodies heart-and-soul character. The Kraken still need more offense out of him, though — 16 points in 66 games isn’t very good value for $3.5 million.
Jaden Schwartz was an effective two-way play driver but couldn’t crack the 0.5 points per game mark despite clocking in at a $5.5 million cap hit.
Justin Schultz was a serviceable third-pair option in 2023-24 but his contributions weren’t fully up to par with his $3 million pay grade.
Jamie Oleksiak is a solid middle-of-the-lineup defenseman although his two-way metrics took a step back across the board this year. Seattle lost the shots, chances and actual goals battle with Oleksiak on the ice at five-on-five, which wasn’t the case in 2022-23.
St. Louis Blues
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-4 | $6.5M | 3 | |
-1 | $6.5M | 3 | |
0 | $6.5M | 4 | |
-7 | $3.275M | 0 (UFA) | |
-7 | $3.2M | 0 (UFA) | |
-20 | $2.625M | 0 (UFA) | |
-2 | $3.571M | 2 |
Torey Krug: The Blues are stuck with too many overpaid veterans. Colton Parayko and Nick Leddy had impressive bounce backs but that still left Krug and Justin Faulk as problematic contracts in the Blues’ top four. Krug and Faulk are paid like fringe top-pairing defensemen but are instead below-average defensively and don’t pack enough offensive punch to make up for it. Marco Scandella was only trusted to play 12:28 per game on the back end — that alone should tell you he wasn’t worth $3.275 million.
Captain Brayden Schenn had a 19-point drop-off compared to 2022-23, contributing 46 points in 82 games. He owned subpar two-way play-driving metrics, too.
Advertisement
Kasperi Kapanen and Jakub Vrana were picked up as reclamation projects near the 2023 trade deadline. Both of them got hot down the stretch before flopping this season. Vrana was such a bad fit that he was waived and demoted to the AHL. Kapanen had the worst season of his NHL career, scoring six goals in 73 games.
Even at a retained cap hit a tick above $3.5 million, Kevin Hayes didn’t work out in St. Louis. The 32-year-old playmaking center didn’t even crack 30 points.
Vancouver Canucks
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
0 | $4.75M | 2 |
Ilya Mikheyev: After years of mismanagement under Jim Benning, the Canucks have finally cleaned up their salary cap health. Mikheyev was the only major blemish on Vancouver’s cap sheet — he was productive early in the season but scored one goal in his final 61 games between the regular season and playoffs despite regularly playing with Elias Pettersson.
Tyler Myers narrowly escaped landing on this list because his successful run on Vancouver’s second pair provided about $5.1 million worth of value, according to the model — not too far off his actual $6 million cap hit. The final year of his deal wasn’t nearly as cumbersome as many expected.
Vegas Golden Knights
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
+2 | $8.8M | 3 | |
-1 | $5.25M | 0 (UFA) | |
+10 | $9.5M | 3 |
Alex Pietrangelo: Pietrangelo was the 11th highest paid defenseman in the NHL for 2023-24. He’s still a top pair stud but had a down year where he was also affected by health. Pietrangelo’s numbers declined to 33 points in 64 games and the Golden Knights had a minus-six goal differential during his five-on-five minutes. It didn’t help that his partner, Alec Martinez, showed serious signs of decline at age 36. In fact, Martinez’s value relative to his contract was arguably worse.
Pietrangelo may not have been full value for his deal this season but he should rebound with better health and a different partner.
When he’s healthy, Mark Stone is one of the best wingers in the league. But Stone was neither healthy nor at his peak this season. Stone’s production (53 points in 56 games) was solid but he didn’t generate elite two-way results like we’re used to — he went from driving a dominant 58 percent share of five-on-five expected goals in 2022-23 to controlling 50.8 percent of expected goals. Because of that, he slightly underperformed his $9.5 million cap hit.
Advertisement
Winnipeg Jets
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-1 | $5.875M | 1 |
Neal Pionk: It’s been strange watching Pionk’s arc in Winnipeg. He made an excellent first impression for the Jets as a high-end top-four defender to replace Jacob Trouba. He was rewarded with a lucrative extension and whether it’s because of previous injuries or other factors, he’s looked like a shadow of himself recently. Pionk struggled mightily in a top-four role this year.
Nate Schmidt is an analytics darling because of his results in a sheltered third-pair role. He may not have landed on this list statistically but he’s still on a bad contract — you just can’t pay a third-pair defender nearly $6 million, no matter how well he’s performing in that role.
(Photos of Jonathan Huberdeau and Darnell Nurse: Sergei Belski and Bob Frid / USA Today)