The MLB draft is now just four-plus weeks away, and any player not in the College World Series is done with his spring schedule. The MLB Draft combine is taking place now in Arizona, with teams particularly focusing on the player interviews. (There is a day of workouts and one game that only includes high school players.) That means that there’s more information out there now on what certain teams might be planning and which players they favor, although much still depends on players’ medicals and signing bonus expectations.
Here’s my latest projection of who each team will take in the first round, based as always on what I’ve heard from sources in the industry and my understanding of the philosophies of specific scouting directors and general managers.
GO DEEPER
Ranking the 2024 MLB Draft top-100 prospects: Condon on top, 3 Wake Forest players in Top 15
1. Cleveland Guardians: Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia
I doubt we’ll know Cleveland’s pick until the day of the draft, but other teams think it’ll be Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana or Condon, with one rumor that the Guardians were looking at going way under slot with high school position player Konnor Griffin. If West Virginia infielder JJ Wetherholt’s medicals check out, though, I would imagine they’d explore a deal with him, thinking he was good enough to be a 1-1 candidate coming into the spring. Cleveland picks again at 36 and 48, so they can get creative with some high school pitching if they want to.
Advertisement
2. Cincinnati Reds: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
I’d be surprised if this was anyone but Condon or Bazzana, or maybe Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns. The Reds don’t pick again until No. 51, which is a good argument for going full slot here and getting the best player available.
3. Colorado Rockies: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
I assume that if the Rockies do this, they’ll make Caglianone a full-time hitter rather than risk a second Tommy John surgery at some point, given their organization’s recent run of elbow surgeries for top prospects. I’ve also heard them associated with the two main college arms, Burns and Arkansas’ Hagen Smith.
GO DEEPER
Top MLB Draft prospect Jac Caglianone thriving in his final act at Florida
4. Oakland A’s: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
I’ve heard this will be a college hitter – Bazzana, Kurtz, maybe Wetherholt, assuming Condon is gone.
5. Chicago White Sox: JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
Wetherholt’s spot will come down to what team doctors think about his hamstring injuries. The White Sox have been linked to him, Burns, Caglianone and Griffin.
6. Kansas City Royals: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Folks seem to believe new Royals scouting director Brian Bridges will continue to show his predilection for taking pitching in the first round by going with Burns or Smith here.
7. St. Louis Cardinals: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake School (Studio City, Calif.)
The Cardinals could be staring at multiple players they’d happily take here — Wetherholt, one of Smith/Burns, and Rainer.
8. Los Angeles Angels: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
This would be a dream scenario for the Angels, who everyone thinks will take a player they can bring to the majors in August. They’ve been linked to East Carolina right-hander Trey Yesavage, Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt, and Florida State outfielder James Tibbs III, as well as the top group of college guys.
Advertisement
9. Pittsburgh Pirates: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
The Pirates sit around the inflection point of the first round — with Yesavage and Braden Montgomery getting hurt, the Pirates could end up dipping into the second tier of players to try to cut a deal, with Tibbs and Waldschmidt coming up as potential names.
10. Washington Nationals: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
Montgomery might have sneaked into the top five had he not broken his ankle in the Super Regionals, ending his season and pushing his draft status into the hands of team doctors once they see his medicals.
11. Detroit Tigers: Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson (Miss.) Prep
Griffin is the high-ceiling, high-risk guy among the prep players and could still end up in the top 10. I also think the Tigers would be on Rainer or Montgomery, depending on who gets here.
12. Boston Red Sox: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
Beyond Yesavage, I’ve heard them with several college hitters, including Tennessee’s Christian Moore and LSU’s Tommy White.
13. San Francisco Giants: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (Scottsdale, Ariz.)
I’ve heard this a bunch this spring, but I also wonder if someone slides a little — Rainer, Griffin, maybe Montgomery — if they’d go that direction instead, or if they’re one of the teams jumping on Christian Moore because of his metrics.
14. Chicago Cubs: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
This connection keeps coming up, as the Cubs do lean heavily on their model, and Moore has excellent batted-ball data. I’ve also heard them with Christian Moore and Waldschmidt.
15. Seattle Mariners: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
The Mariners would go for a high school hitter if the right one were here, but I think Rainer and Griffin are gone and this might be high for Theo Gillen and I don’t think they’re on Kellon Lindsey here.
16. Miami Marlins: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
I’m not a big Christian Moore believer but he definitely has his fans and his high exit velocities are going to push him up for teams that draft heavily off a model, which is the expectation for the Marlins in their first draft under new team president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. That could also mean Waldschmidt, Malcolm Moore, or White.
Advertisement
17. Milwaukee Brewers: Cam Smith, 3B/1B, Florida State
The Brewers scored last year when the loaded draft class pushed Wake Forest’s Brock Wilken down to their pick, and my best guess right now is that they’ll do something similar this year — be prepared to take whoever happens to “fall” to their pick even though the player should probably go higher, like Cam Smith or Waldschmidt.
18. Tampa Bay Rays: Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS (Austin, Texas)
Gillen has become the hot name among high school hitters this year as scouts have warmed up to his hit tool, which could put him somewhere in the 15-20 range. My sense is that the Rays would be on position players — college or high school — much more than college pitchers.
19. New York Mets: Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State
The Mets have been linked to Benge for a while, and he offers a great combination of present hitting skill and future power if someone can help optimize his swing.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Jurrangelo Cijntje, BHP, Mississippi State
I’ve heard the Jays all over the place, on names like Gillen, White, Christian Moore, Waldschmidt, and more, anything but high school pitchers.
21. Minnesota Twins: Tommy White, 3B, LSU
I could see the Twins on White, Sam Houston State catcher Walker Janek, Wake Forest infielder Seaver King, Cijntje, or maybe even one of the high school arms after they went that route with their compensatory pick last year (taking right-hander Charlee Soto).
22. Baltimore Orioles: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
I’ve heard the Orioles almost exclusively on college bats, including White, Christian Moore, and Vance Honeycutt.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Vance Honeycutt, OF, UNC
Honeycutt offers plus power and plus-plus defense, but if he goes in the first round I believe he will set the record for the most strikeouts in a draft-year season (81 and counting) by any player selected that high. The word is the Dodgers are looking for someone in that mold, a player with big ceiling but with a weakness the Dodgers think they can “fix.” Players like Honeycutt, White, Benge, Mississippi State outfielder Dakota Jordan, etc. fit this bill.
Advertisement
24. Atlanta: Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS (Temecula, Calif.)
The rumor mill has Atlanta doing an under-slot deal with Doughty here to try to go over on another prep arm at pick 62.
25. San Diego Padres: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS (Baton Rouge, La.)
Could be Schmidt or other prep arms like Kash Mayfield, Doughty, Ryan Sloan. For now it seems like folks expect the Padres to go high school arm because so many teams are going the other direction.
26. New York Yankees: Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
The Yankees have been going more for ceiling the last few drafts, and Jordan is the sort of explosive, high-upside athlete they’ve favored at many points in Damon Oppenheimer’s tenure as scouting director. They’d also be a fit for Honeycutt or, if they go pitcher, Iowa’s Brody Brecht.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: Carter Johnson, SS, Oxford HS (Ala.)
The Phillies seem likely to stick with high school, having gone that way in every first round since Brian Barber became scouting director. Targets could be Johnson or Gillen or one of the prep arms like Schmidt.
28. Houston Astros: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Brecht is a college pitcher who’s less polished than his peers, with athleticism and arm strength that point to more upside, very much the sort of player Houston general manager Dana Brown has liked in his career running drafts.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell, OF, Jonesboro HS (Ark.)
The story all spring has been that Caldwell doesn’t get past the Diamondbacks, although I haven’t heard the diminutive outfielder’s name before them, either, and since they pick again at No. 31, they could get creative and take him at the later pick while going for another HS bat here (Tyson Lewis?) or perhaps a college pitcher.
30. Texas Rangers: Kellon Lindsay, SS, Hardee HS (Wauchula, Fla.)
I’ve heard the Rangers with a few high school hitters, including Gillen, Lindsey, and Tyson Lewis, even though their last five first-round picks were all college players.
(Top photo illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; from left to right Hagen Smith, Travis Bazzana and Charlie Condon — Kate Woolson / Texas Rangers and Jeff Moreland / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images)