Four reasons for Trevor Lawrence’s $275M, plus minicamp takeaways

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“Patrick Mahomes or Tua?” has an easy answer, even if you’re a Dolphin. But athletes can’t be honest, so when Tyreek Hill was asked that, he replied that there were a lot of cameras around and that he likes them both. Still, you couldn’t blame Hill if he’d chosen Tua, as the receiver has topped 1,700 yards in each season in Miami.

Today’s NFL update:

🔬 Minicamp takeaways
💰 Paying Trevor Lawrence
🚨 Sanctions arrive for Falcons

What you should know from NFL minicamps

Patrick Mahomes is happy with his receivers. That’s something we didn’t write often last season, when Kadarius Toney started the year as their No. 1 WR and the Chiefs led the NFL in dropped passes (44).

Veteran acquisition Marquise Brown and 4.21-speed rookie Xavier Worthy (who missed minicamp with an injury) have teammates saying, “They’re a different level of speed.” Brown and Worthy should open space for Mahomes to find Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce in the intermediate area of the field.

That is, whenever Rice is on the field. The Chiefs re-signed Mecole Hardman to another one-year deal and expect to rely on him early, with Rice likely to serve a multi-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, relating to the Dallas highway incident.

Alvin Kamara is unhappy with his contract. Kamara skipped the final practice of New Orleans’ mandatory minicamp due to a contract dispute. Kamara also missed voluntary organized team activities.

The star running back turns 29 in July and is entering year four of his five-year, $75 million deal. But that contract included an unrealistic year-five payday of $25 million, which — after his 2023 with 6.2 yards per reception and 3.9 per carry, each the worst of his career — makes Kamara a cut candidate after 2024.

Keep an eye on Kendre Miller. The Saints early third-round pick in 2023 was plagued by injuries but impressed in Week 18, posting 73 rushing yards on just 13 carries.

The Steelers’ QB1 is locked in. In Mark Kaboly’s list of Steelers offseason winners, Russell Wilson’s standout arm talent combines with his work ethic, experience and command of first-team reps to “suggest that nothing Wilson can do between July 24 and Sept. 8 would prevent him from starting.”

The Raiders’ QB1, however, is not. Returning sophomore Aidan O’Connell and veteran acquisition Gardner Minshew “had too many off-target throws and frequently put the ball in harm’s way,” per Tashan Reed. While QB remains a question, Tashan noted that Vegas has 11 projected starters who are still on their rookie contracts, and they believe their young core is on the rise.

Bryce Young got his WR1, but his rookie receiver was absent. Diontae Johnson has shown another gear in minicamp, with Joe Person noting that Johnson’s quickness was on display during practice and the early chemistry between Johnson and Young was good. Meanwhile, first-round pick Xavier Legette missed the last three weeks with a hamstring issue that could be troublesome if this lingers (just ask anyone who drafted Christian Watson to their fantasy team).

Jerome Ford is Cleveland’s RB1, for now. The Browns rotated their offensive skill players on almost every snap throughout the spring, but Ford was always the first running back. Even if Nick Chubb returns for the start of training camp, expect Ford to be the lead back this summer. When the regular season hits, that could change. Zack Jackson has more on the Browns’ “juicy offense.”

Everyone’s glad Kirk Cousins is in Atlanta. Cousins “commands the room,” said tight end Kyle Pitts. Running back Tyler Allgeier marveled at Cousins’ “confidence.” Veteran offensive lineman Jake Matthews called him “just a guy who is on top of it.” Josh Kendall has more from Falcons minicamp.

Lamar Jackson doesn’t need their money? The star quarterback took part in less than half of the team’s 10 recent voluntary organized activities, which cost him a $750,000 workout bonus, per Pro Football Talk. Jeff Zrebiec has more from Baltimore.

Play of minicamp? In Washington, rookie WR Luke McCaffrey has been a standout, but second-year safety Quan Martin stole the show with a behind-the-back interception of a Marcus Mariota pass.

Quick takeaways:

The Patriots’ offense has a long way to go with new coaches, new players and a new scheme. Jacoby Brissett’s 55.6 percent completion percentage through the spring was bested by Drake Maye’s 64.3 percent, but both fell below the 70 percent Patriots QBs have usually completed in these workouts, per Jeff Howe.
The Bears have fewer questions than usual when trying to project the final 53. Adam Jahns and Kevin Fishbain go position by position.
The Cowboys’ running back committee could have another addition, writes Jon Machota. But if the roster stays as is, Jon expects Ezekiel Elliott to lead the team in touches. Saad Yousef notes that Rico Dowdle could emerge as their RB1.
The Giants’ current regime has never kept three quarterbacks on the 53-man roster, making it likely that Tommy DeVito starts the season on the practice squad.

More on all 32 teams: The Athletic NFL staff’s key takeaways.

Why the Jaguars paid Trevor Lawrence

He’s the only first-round quarterback from the once-heralded 2021 draft class to remain with the team that drafted him, and it felt all offseason like the Jaguars had to pay him. And pay him they did.

On Friday, Lawrence and the Jaguars agreed to a five-year extension worth $275 million. At $55 million per year, he ties Joe Burrow for first among all NFL players — which feels rich for a quarterback who has not yet lived up to expectations.

When Lawrence’s third NFL season (2023) is compared to that of elite young quarterbacks like Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray, it’s concerning; Lawrence had the worst record and passer rating (88.5), lowest completion percentage and fewest passing touchdowns. Moreover, his 14 interceptions led the group, as did his nine fumbles.

The Athletic’s Randy Mueller has raised valid concerns about Lawrence’s play, most notably his struggles on third downs — he converted just 38 percent of third downs (a figure aligning him with Desmond Ridder and Daniel Jones) while turning the ball over a league-high ten times.

Despite the concerns, this deal still makes sense for the Jaguars. Here’s why:

The cap is rising and will continue to rise. Burrow’s deal covered 24.4 percent of Cincy’s cap when signed, while Lawrence only takes 21.5 percent of Jacksonville’s. Per Spotrac, his $55 million average as a percentage of the cap at the time of signing actually ranks 10th among active QB contracts. And with deals for Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud on the horizon, this could soon look like a bargain.
It’s hard to find a starting quarterback in the NFL — just ask your local Bears fan. There’s historically been a 41 percent chance of drafting a bust in the top 10, and holding onto a potential franchise quarterback is not something teams pass up, unless that quarterback’s last name is Cousins.
Lawrence’s 2023 numbers were similar to his 2022 (nearly identical completion percentage and yards per game) despite many more injuries. After just one injury in each of his first two NFL seasons, Lawrence dealt last season with a knee injury, high ankle sprain, concussion and sprained A/C joint.
One important stat is expected points added, which measures how well a team performs relative to expectation. Lawrence ranked No. 16 in 2023 EPA per play (Brock Purdy is No. 1), but when adjusted for variables outside of the quarterback’s control, Lawrence was the NFL’s third-best quarterback, with an EPA of 0.26.

Notably, Lawrence won’t actually make over $50 million until 2029 and 2030, conveniently the two years without any guarantees in the deal. Below is a good example of the reality of his contract, a stark reminder that the $275 million figure is more of a goal than a definitive expectation.

And don’t forget, this is the Jaguars we are talking about. Their record for passing yards in a season is held by Blake Bortles (4,428). Just 24, Lawrence is already fourth on their career passing yardage list and should pass Mark Brunell’s team-record 25,698 yards before this contract is up.

After one of the most difficult schedules during an injury-filled 2023, Jacksonville’s 2024 schedule forecasts as the 14th-easiest. Lawrence will need to take advantage of that to quiet the reasonable concerns raised about his performance to date.

NFL Sanctions: Atlanta loses pick, Philly fine

The Falcons will forfeit their fifth-round pick in the 2025 draft and pay a $250,000 fine. GM Terry Fontenot received a $50,000 fine for violating the anti-tampering policy, which “includes discussion of travel arrangements or other logistical matters,” per the league’s statement.

These sanctions are for improper contact with then-free agents QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney and TE Charlie Woerner, the league announced Thursday.

In contrast, the league won’t penalize the Eagles after its investigation into the franchise’s signing of Saquon Barkley led to insufficient evidence to support a finding that Philly violated the anti-tampering policy.

Barkley’s college coach, Penn State’s James Franklin, had implied that Eagles GM Howie Roseman spoke directly with Barkley, rather than the RB’s agent, during the negotiating window.

Around the NFL

Chiefs DL Isaiah Buggs was arrested yesterday on domestic violence and burglary charges. Misdemeanor charges were recently filed against him on May 29 for cruelty to dogs. Signed to the Chiefs practice squad in January 2024, Buggs being cut would not be a surprise.

Steelers DT Cam Heyward had said he’d discussed the possibility of playing elsewhere, but posted yesterday that, “The goal is to be a Steeler” for the rest of his career. Heyward, the Walter Payton Man of the Year, was present for mandatory minicamp.

Bengals WR Tee Higgins signed his franchise tag and is expected to report for training camp. If he has a good year, the 25-year-old receiver should receive a longer-team deal elsewhere next offseason.

Panthers RB Miles Sanders was sidelined for most of the spring sessions with a heel injury that developed while working out on his own and became worse during OTAs. The league’s fourth-highest-paid RB struggled during his first year in Carolina, and now the Panthers have drafted second-round RB Jonathan Brooks.

Jacob’s Picks

📺 Trevor Lawrence’s near-miss touchdowns. This video should be … shorter. (X)

🎙 Lawrence’s extension: Why now? Why did the Jaguars decide to extend him now, with two years of team control remaining? Mike Sando and Randy Mueller explore this around the six-minute mark. (The Athletic Football GM)

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