MLB trade deadline watch is a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.
With the New York Yankees on pace for around 110 wins, and Juan Soto set to become a free agent after this season, Chicago Cubs right-hander Hayden Wesneski understands what the organization’s pitching prospects must be thinking right now: “I could be gone in a month.”
“Not that you’re necessarily hoping for that,” Wesneski continued, but history shows that the Yankees are a behemoth that develops players in the minor leagues, markets those prospects to the rest of the baseball industry and then cashes them in as trade chips.
Advertisement
Said Wesneski: “They’re just gold coins.”
Leading up to the 2022 trade deadline, it became a running joke for Wesneski and his Scranton/Wilkes-Barre teammates. They were playing the Triple-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals at the end of July, wondering who might walk over to the other clubhouse as the new guys from a Soto trade.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman wound up trading Wesneski to the Cubs for sidearm reliever Scott Effross on the same day (Aug. 1) they acquired Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from the Oakland A’s for four prospects (three pitchers). The next day, the Nationals finalized the blockbuster Soto deal, an eight-player trade with the San Diego Padres.
Despite consistently drafting near the bottom of the first round and rarely being sellers at the trade deadline, the Yankees had a strong enough farm system to acquire Soto last winter when the Padres went into cost-cutting mode. While their collection of prospects has been depleted, the Yankees will once again have resources to upgrade this summer and improve the odds to win their 28th World Series title. Perhaps that means adding a corner infielder if Anthony Rizzo or D.J. LeMahieu don’t come around, or another reliever for October, or a big swing that no one anticipates. A team playing at such a high level also might not need that much external help.
“They know who they’re trying to get,” Wesneski said. “They have a lot of the pieces. But you’re waiting for that call.”
Wesneski credited the Yankees for their scouting acumen, a modern, tech-savvy approach to player development and an organizational patience that runs counter to their reputation as a big-market team that’s supposed to win the World Series every year. Prospects aren’t rushed to New York and handed jobs at Yankee Stadium.
“They play the long game,” Wesneski said, citing Clarke Schmidt as an example. Schmidt, who underwent Tommy John surgery and fell to the No. 16 spot in the 2017 draft, is now a key starter for a championship contender. “He was supposed to be a top-10 pick. Some teams were staying away from him because he had injuries. They go, ‘No, we’ll have time to develop him. We’ll take the ceiling. We’ll try to get the ceiling.’ They can wait for you to be the best version of yourself.”
Advertisement
Jeremiah Estrada and small moves that play big
It barely registered last November when the Padres claimed Jeremiah Estrada off waivers from the Cubs, who shocked the baseball world that same day by firing manager David Ross and announcing the hiring of Craig Counsell. But Estrada, 25, is no longer an afterthought.
As Counsell tries to piece together a functional bullpen in Chicago, Estrada has been one of the sport’s most dominating relievers. He has posted a 41 percent strikeout rate in San Diego, realizing the potential the Cubs struggled to unlock before letting him go for nothing.
As the sport begins focusing on the trade deadline, Estrada’s emergence serves as a reminder of how small moves can have a huge impact. (Also see Bailey Falter’s acquisition by the Pittsburgh Pirates at last year’s deadline). Indeed, it’s not all corporate speak when executives talk about internal improvements and point to role players who otherwise go under the radar.
“With relievers, it can click at any time,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said. “There’s a churning nature to it. You’re trying to grab relievers at different times. Most teams’ bullpens are made up of guys that they got from other organizations at down moments. The key is to constantly be looking to be opportunistic and grab good arms when you can. And sometimes it clicks at that time.”
The Cubs saw enough in Estrada to pick him in the sixth round of the 2017 draft and buy out his commitment to UCLA with a $1 million bonus. He missed a lot of development time while recovering from Tommy John surgery and a nearly fatal case of COVID-19. He relied almost exclusively on his fastball and needed to develop a secondary plan of attack.
In 12 appearances with the Cubs last season, Estrada gave up 12 hits, 12 walks and eight runs. He even spent part of the year in the Arizona Complex League. A team source suggested that it’s natural for a player who winds up on waivers to take it as a wake-up call.
Advertisement
Another team source believes that Estrada, who grew up in Southern California, has a good support system in San Diego. He landed in a progressive pitching organization with a baseball-focused biomechanics lab. Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla is a well-regarded instructor. Estrada had already started working on a new splitter based on video study of former Los Angeles Dodgers closer Eric Gagne. Estrada’s improved arsenal led to 13 consecutive strikeouts across three appearances in late May, an expansion era record.
The Cubs have a good track record of identifying undervalued relievers and working with change-of-scenery pitchers. But with Estrada, the frustrating part for the Cubs is they have video of the righty working on that splitter in the Wrigley Field bullpen. Their coaching staff incorporated these concepts into a comprehensive offseason program and presented it to Estrada, who deserves credit for taking the plan and running with the opportunity.
“You have to be accountable and look and say, ‘OK, what did we miss? What tweak did we not look at, at the right time?’” said Hoyer, who has watched the Cubs’ struggling bullpen blow 15 saves and pitch to a 4.39 ERA. “But there’s no question relievers in general are volatile. Our goal has to be to get as many guys as we can at that moment when they’re clicking.”
Estrada is having a moment, which is not the same as having a long major-league career. Sunday’s blow-up appearance raised his ERA from 1.23 to 2.82. Rebuilding a bullpen at the trade deadline is always unpredictable, and Estrada’s presence, for the moment, should give the Padres one less worry. Right now, his swing-and-miss stuff puts him in an elite category with bigger names like Aroldis Chapman and Mason Miller, whose asking price remains high.
The Marlins are ready to move early
With trade targets such as Jesús Luzardo to offer, the Miami Marlins are very open to the idea of making a deal sooner as opposed to hanging onto their trade candidates as close to the deadline as possible, people familiar with their plans said. The thinking within the league is, if the Marlins find a deal they like, they are going to go with it — regardless of the calendar.
The Marlins must improve their farm system. Multiple evaluators characterized it simply as “in tough shape” or “not good.” The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Miami 28th out of 30 teams before the season, and multiple evaluators said it remained a bottom-five farm system.
From an analytical perspective, a package of prospects in any potential deal makes sense for the Marlins (it’s what they did in the Luis Arraez trade with San Diego last month). But people familiar with the club’s thinking suggested it would be unlikely for the Marlins to box themselves into such a situation where they are strictly looking for volume and that they’d be just as likely to trade for one prospect they are extremely high on.
(Top photo of Yankees general manager Brian Cashman: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)